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Started By
Message
re: El Nino's effect on Hurricane Season
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:38 am to TheGreat318
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:38 am to TheGreat318
quote:
Weather threads that aren't started by GeauxMedic make me feel uncomfortable.
0
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:41 am to baytiger
quote:
pretty sure he knew that. he was quoting chris farley.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:45 am to rds dc
how have i never seen thatPosted on 5/12/14 at 10:18 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Posted on 5/12/14 at 10:50 am to TDsngumbo
I am a meteorology enthusiast, and while I do understand that El Nino's effects hinder hurricane development, preparation is still very important. The last El Nino season was in 2009, and it was a very quiet year with the 9th storm, Ida, hitting Louisiana in November as a very weak tropical storm. The reduction of storms is largely due to the unfavorable upper-level winds and increased wind shear across many favorable developmental areas. However, once a storm begins to develop, it is less susceptible to being damaged by the shear--mostly hinders storm formation. It does take only one storm to change lives, however.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 10:56 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:03 am to ragincajunkarl
It can depend on the "whereabouts" of the El Nino.. Eastern pacific seems to have a bigger impact on U.S. weather and Atlantic, from my limited study.
Most of Texas is praying for a powerful eastern El Nino.
Most of Texas is praying for a powerful eastern El Nino.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:14 am to TejasHorn
The past two years were supposed to be big hurricane years, and i know alot formed but didnt make landfall, but quiet as far as im concerned.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:20 am to ToulatownTiger
quote:
The past two years were supposed to be big hurricane years, and i know alot formed but didnt make landfall, but quiet as far as im concerned.
Which is why hurricane forecasters aren't getting funding anymore. The only ones who aren't quitting are the private companies that insurance companies hire such as Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:22 am to GEAUXmedic
Maybe if the hurricane prediction center was moved out of the mountains...
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:24 am to ToulatownTiger
The NHC is in Florida, and the CPC just built a new facility in Maryland. Its actually kinda nice This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 11:25 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:25 am to GEAUXmedic
I am mistaken whatever goes on at colorado state
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:29 am to ToulatownTiger
quote:
I am mistaken whatever goes on at colorado state
Ah yeah, Dr Gray was just the first one to start issuing forecasts, which are more widely reported cause of his experience. His forecasts are usually wrong though and require multiple revisions. He actually retired this year and issued his last forecast at the HurriCon in Orlando last month, his partner is taking over now.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 11:32 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:29 am to ToulatownTiger
quote:there's really no reason to have a hurricane prediction center in a coastal area. In fact it's a bit detrimental to the mission to attempt to disseminate vital information while you're being impacted by the storm. If it were up to me the NHC would have been moved out of Florida years ago.
Maybe if the hurricane prediction center was moved out of the mountains...
thanks to the internet you can get all the information you need for forecasting no matter where you live.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:36 am to baytiger
I have been so busy studying lately that i have failed to notice the season is almost here. I really hope we can go at least 2 more years without a big storm
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:39 am to ToulatownTiger
quote:
I really hope we can go at least 2 more years without a big storm
I hope so too.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:39 am to baytiger
quote:
there's really no reason to have a hurricane prediction center in a coastal area. In fact it's a bit detrimental to the mission to attempt to disseminate vital information while you're being impacted by the storm. If it were up to me the NHC would have been moved out of Florida years ago.
Their building can withstand winds up to 130 mph, but if they lose communication, the WPC in Maryland (pictured above) takes over for the North Atlantic, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center takes over for North Pacific storms.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:41 am to GEAUXmedic
Medic there is a chick in one of my classes who looks exactly like your avi just thought id throw that out there.
just thought id throw that out there. Posted on 5/12/14 at 11:42 am to ToulatownTiger
quote:
Medic there is a chick in one of my classes who looks exactly like your avi just thought id throw that out there.
is this her? LINK
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:49 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This year's El Nino isn't panning out to be as strong as everyone thought. Either way, as we have seen before in weak seasons all it takes is one (see 1992, 1957)
El Nino forecasting is pretty difficult and the models seem to struggle with it. I have seen some talk about the -PDO regime that we have been in and how you typically don't see a strong Nino combined with a -PDO but if you look at the recent trends with the PDO:
You may notice something interesting.
This season looks almost as bad as last season looked good for tropical cyclone development (not that tropical cyclone development is a good thing but it happens, so deal with it). There is a developing El Nino, +PDO (maybe transient) and
-AMO (maybe transient) and these typically tend to favor less tropical activity.
Who knows what will happen but it is probably safe to say that we won't see the parade of short lived name wasting systems spinning up in the Bay of Campeche like we have recently.
As others have stated, it only takes one storm to cause a lot of trouble. We still can't forecast the MJO, atmospheric kelvin waves, state of the teleconnections, etc. very far in advance with any accuracy. Any number of those could align properly and set the stage for a significant hurricane, even with an unfavorable base state.
ETA: dry air & shear!
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 5/12/14 at 1:54 pm to TDsngumbo
We're done for. Not even kidding.
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