Tornado! Multi State Outbreak - New Tri-State Tornado

It's been so warm over the east, it's not too surprising tornados are off to a fast start.

80 degrees on Mardi Gras just feels wrong.

Yeah, more worried about March-May than Hurricanes just yet.

We've had a juiced gulf for a couple of years, but shear has been the ruling regime. Really hope it stays that way. It feels like the Gulf South has dodged some bullets over the past few years. Warm waters but a hostile atmosphere.

We're kinda "overdue" for a major on the gulf coast.

A 15% hatched tornado risk area is quite impressive for late February, in that region.

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Yeah, it's looking like a more subdued hurricane season

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That is my early hot take. A lot depends on how fast the atmosphere transitions to el nino conditions. SSTs are rapidly transitioning, esp. eastern zones like 1+2:





But the atmosphere continues to be low AAM and overall nina like:



I would expect the atmosphere to start the transition to el nino well before peak hurricane season. A top analog cluster returns an avg ACE of 64.

First Tor warning of the day:



Large area under Tornado Watch including numbers big cities:

Small one from Iowa:



Reed on a big cell south of St. Louis:

Reports of several tornadoes to the SW of Chicago. The Chicago radar is down for maintenance today.



Bradford, IL just now:

Washburn, IL

Given the location, I'd say the chances of a sharknado are disappointingly low.