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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:17 pm to dukke v
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:17 pm to dukke v
quote:
Do what??? I said a few days ago I thought this thing was gonna go into the panhandle if Florida. I stand by this.
Nobody knows what's gonna happen with this thing... and as for predictions, I'm comfortable betting against yours, until proven otherwise... nothing personal
0
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:18 pm to CFDoc
quote:
Just so I don't come across as a complete troll to you since you obviously have a good bit of personal interest in NWP, I will try to clarify my stance on NWP a bit more eloquently than a carpet adjective such as useless. My predictability, usefulness, etc. comment was directed towards the highly stochastic nature of even early time evolution of a storm. Thus the dubious comment at studying models that are gross approximations and thousands of miles apart in a mere several days.
Ok, see you didn't say that in your fist statement. You made a blanket statement about NWP. I think everyone involved in the field that has an understanding of mathematics/statistics/modeling understands the limitations that models have when trying to resolve cyclogenesis. I think we are actually on the same page.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:28 pm to Bob Sacamano
quote:
Can you recomend any books to get me started?
I posted links to a couple of books in another thread but the 2nd book no longer appears to be free:
Practical Meteorology: An Algebra-based Survey of Atmospheric Science
Tropical Meteorology appears to not be free anymore but if you can find the PDF online, this is a great follow on book.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:31 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
last vis loop
Great loop, overshooting tops casting shadows are always awesome to watch.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:35 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
quote:
@webberweather ~47/51 EPS members eventually develop the strong AEW that'll emerge from Africa in ~3 days, 39/51 develop it into a hurricane #Confident
Eric can rub people the wrong way at times but I'm glad he counted that up
The spread includes hurricanes from the Yucatan to east of Gaston...
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:51 pm to rds dc
00z GFS is west of 18z out in the Gulf at 60hrs
Posted on 8/27/16 at 10:54 pm to rds dc
So...if it follows the same north, then northeast turn, it will be coming in around Gulfport instead of Pensacola?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:03 pm to rds dc
quote:
00z GFS is west of 18z out in the Gulf at 60hrs
Looks like it's just a low pressure system, right? 1008 mb is barely even low pressure. Is intensity something these models struggle with even more than track?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:10 pm to rds dc
It's starting to get close enough to see on actual radar, and the loop below shows some definite broad spinning around the area where the presumed LLC currently is. You can almost fill in the rest with your imagination and see it clearly, or at least I can. Still VERY incomplete evidence here, just thought this particular loop of the very outer edge of the storm looked interesting.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:13 pm to rds dc
still hooks it north then northeast towards the big bend area of Florida
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:17 pm to udtiger
quote:
So...if it follows the same north, then northeast turn, it will be coming in around Gulfport instead of Pensacola?
Ends up in about the same spot as a weak system.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:18 pm to medtiger
quote:
Looks like it's just a low pressure system, right? 1008 mb is barely even low pressure. Is intensity something these models struggle with even more than track?
It stays pretty weak on the GFS, maybe a minimal TS at landfall.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:28 pm to rds dc
How "scientific" or accurate is the Earth Wind Map? It's showing an awesome view of the area of circulation, but not sure if that is even credible info.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:36 pm to GeauxOCDP
quote:
How "scientific" or accurate is the Earth Wind Map?
Geaux,
I remember someone addressing this much earlier in the thread. I don't remember how far back or even what was sais]d exactly. But their explanation gave me the impression that the earth wind map is "somewhat" accurate. Maybe more accurate for large general areas but not as accurate as the scale gets smaller.
I could be completely off on my recollection however.
Hope that vague and back and forth answer helped you.
ETA: I recommend listening to the answer below me.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:38 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:36 pm to GeauxOCDP
quote:
How "scientific" or accurate is the Earth Wind Map? It's showing an awesome view of the area of circulation, but not sure if that is even credible info.
It is based off the GFS but I believe that Bay posted earlier in this thread that it also uses sone real time obs. So probably more accurate in areas with a higher number of obs.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:38 pm to GeauxOCDP
quote:
How "scientific" or accurate is the Earth Wind Map? It's showing an awesome view of the area of circulation, but not sure if that is even credible info.
It's based off the GFS model, so its not necessarily a current, accurate depiction.
^ what rds said
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:38 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:49 pm to GEAUXmedic
The GFS brings "Ian" much more west this run obvious it will change over time
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:50 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:50 pm to GEAUXmedic
A storm that strong making it to the carribean... all bets are off. A storm that strength would make it's own path.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:52 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:50 pm to lsuman25
The African storm may be the real hermine
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 11:53 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:51 pm to Chad504boy
That could be true actually did not think about that
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