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Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/27/16 at 4:34 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/27/16 at 4:34 pm to rds dc
It looks like the 12z Euro is a western outlier from the 12z guidance. It will have to show some kind of consistency before it can be taken seriously. However, it often sets off on it's own only to have every other piece of guidance fall in line.
Afternoon rapid scan hi res sat. Too bad tomorrow is the last day for this run of rapid scan.
Afternoon rapid scan hi res sat. Too bad tomorrow is the last day for this run of rapid scan.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 4:36 pm
2
Posted on 8/27/16 at 4:38 pm to rds dc
I can't tell if we're screwed or is it looking better for us. SOMEONE INTERPRET FOR ME
Posted on 8/27/16 at 4:40 pm to The Pirate King
Seems like we are in wait and see mode still
Posted on 8/27/16 at 4:41 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
can't tell if we're screwed or is it looking better for us. SOMEONE INTERPRET FOR ME
Your answer is "yes".
Posted on 8/27/16 at 4:53 pm to The Pirate King
The short answer is that 99L is going to the Gulf and any person or computer that thinks they know what will happen then is kidding themselves. Smart money is that it never gets it's back up and turns into anything but no one knows right now.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:09 pm to Dubosed
Funny that people once thought smoking was cool.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:46 pm to The Pirate King
quote:The latest data shows there is definitely a possible chance that a hurricane might develop and maybe hit somewhere probably between Corpus Christi, Texas and Naples, Florida.
I can't tell if we're screwed or is it looking better for us. SOMEONE INTERPRET FOR ME
Or, maybe not.....
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 6:09 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:50 pm to lsuman25
It's going to be a long 4 weeks. 
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:51 pm to rds dc
quote:That shore is purdy, ain't it?
Afternoon rapid scan hi res sat.
Seriously, that's an amazing visual loop.
Look at the outflow from the storms along the west coast of Florida. It's like a mini-front moving west.
And I still don't see a circulation around the 99L low.
ETA: Look at the tops of the thunderstorms after they erupt. The tops of the storms look like smoke from a volcano that is being blown away towards the southeast. Beautiful picture.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 6:08 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:55 pm to LSURussian
We're getting close to 24 hr rule. Every start popping your popkern
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:58 pm to Chad504boy
At the moment we should be looking more at what shes actually doing, rather than what models show her doing.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:58 pm to Chad504boy
What's the 24 hour rule?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 5:59 pm to tiger91
Did that weird dork on that tropical site post his video yet?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:00 pm to tiger91
24 hr rule. Time to shite or get off the pot.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:00 pm to Lou Pai
What do you have against Levi? Did he bang your wife?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:02 pm to rmnldr
That's what I'm trying to find out.Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:06 pm to BRgetthenet
quote:
What's she doing?
Still finally has a poor circulation, but struggling to stack. Convection is firing to the east...just waiting for her to move in the gulf.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:09 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
At the moment we should be looking more at what shes actually doing, rather than what models show her doing.
About 15 years ago I became very interested in studying the Navier-Stokes equations. Two advanced degrees, a dozen or so referred journal articles, and a day to day career in NS modeling later, I can say with 100% certainty that every single weather model has very very little predictive capability, believability, and general usefulness outside of a very small timeframe. Watching them is, at best, a dubious exercise.
Once the storm ends, the model that got the closest did so on luck, not representative physics.
TL;DR. You're exactly right.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:13 pm to tiger91
D has 24 hours to fix dat damn ol combine or you're leaving him for his brother. 
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