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Tie Breaker Scenarios for NFC South
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:20 pm
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:20 pm
The division will come down to us an Atlanta. I have added the most plausible outcomes in parentheses.
Saints remaining schedule:
Carolina (W)
@Chicago (L- playing on Monday night against Bears team with 11 days rest)
Atlanta (W)
@Tampa Bay (W)
Falcons remaining schedule:
@Green Bay (L)
Pittsburgh (W)
@New Orleans (L)
Carolina (W)
If this is the case, New Orleans wins the division outright. But if Atlanta somehow manages to beat both Green Bay and Pittsburgh and we both finish at 8-8, the tie breakers go into effect:
1) Head to head: would be the same at 1-1.
2) Division record: would be the same at 5-1.
3) Common opponents: the Saints and Falcons have 8 common opponents. We have already clinched this tie breaker, as we are 3-4 in common games with one game left. The Falcons are 0-6 in common games with two games left.
Tl;dr version: If Saints win their three remaining division games, they win the NFC South, regardless of the Chicago game or how Atlanta finishes. If we lose any of these three division games, winning the division becomes highly unlikely.
Saints remaining schedule:
Carolina (W)
@Chicago (L- playing on Monday night against Bears team with 11 days rest)
Atlanta (W)
@Tampa Bay (W)
Falcons remaining schedule:
@Green Bay (L)
Pittsburgh (W)
@New Orleans (L)
Carolina (W)
If this is the case, New Orleans wins the division outright. But if Atlanta somehow manages to beat both Green Bay and Pittsburgh and we both finish at 8-8, the tie breakers go into effect:
1) Head to head: would be the same at 1-1.
2) Division record: would be the same at 5-1.
3) Common opponents: the Saints and Falcons have 8 common opponents. We have already clinched this tie breaker, as we are 3-4 in common games with one game left. The Falcons are 0-6 in common games with two games left.
Tl;dr version: If Saints win their three remaining division games, they win the NFC South, regardless of the Chicago game or how Atlanta finishes. If we lose any of these three division games, winning the division becomes highly unlikely.
This post was edited on 12/1/14 at 5:23 pm
10
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:29 pm to ClientNumber9
solid info. 
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:30 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
If we lose any of these three division games, winning the division becomes highly unlikely.
unless ATL loses to GB and PIT which seems very likely to me
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:34 pm to drake20
quote:
unless ATL loses to GB and PIT which seems very likely to me
But if ATL loses to GB and PIT and we lose to CHI and any division game remaining, then we will both be tied at 7-9. They will win the NFC South because of the division record tie breaker record. The only way that we would win is if ATL loses to GB, PIT and NO. I don't see Atlanta losing three of the next four.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:38 pm to ClientNumber9
i do
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:53 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
I don't see Atlanta losing three of the next four.
Really? I could definitely see that
Posted on 12/1/14 at 5:54 pm to ClientNumber9
I'm pretty sure this is spot on.
ATL is already 4-0 in division. 4-1 with loss @Saints.
Saints need to win out division ONLY for guaranteed division championship. 3-1 with a loss to CHI does it, even if ATL goes 3-1 as well.
But I'll also add the Saints could lose one division game, but still go 3-1 (beating CHI) and hope Carolina beats ATL week 17.
ATL is already 4-0 in division. 4-1 with loss @Saints.
Saints need to win out division ONLY for guaranteed division championship. 3-1 with a loss to CHI does it, even if ATL goes 3-1 as well.
But I'll also add the Saints could lose one division game, but still go 3-1 (beating CHI) and hope Carolina beats ATL week 17.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:01 pm to drizztiger
quote:
I'll also add the Saints could lose one division game, but still go 3-1 (beating CHI) and hope Carolina beats ATL week 17.
Good point, but I don't want to pin our playoff hopes on us having to beat the Bears on a Monday night AND having the Panthers beating the Falcons in Atlanta in Week 17.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:01 pm to drizztiger
Man, I don't think Carolina wins another game this season, they are a mess offensively, and their defense is nowhere near as good as they were last year. Cam Newton is playing behind a patchwork offensive line and only has one decent receiver to throw to, who is a rookie (Kelvin Benjamin) Carolina didn't know what they had in Brandon LaFell and now he's tearing it up in New England. They thought Steve Smith was done, but he's having a great year in Baltimore.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:01 pm to drizztiger
frick counting on scam
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:03 pm to ClientNumber9
IMO, it comes down to ATL @ Nola. Whoever wins that game, wins the division.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:07 pm to Indfanfromcol
quote:
IMO, it comes down to ATL @ Nola. Whoever wins that game, wins the division.
Yep. It can be done by either team if they lose this game but it'd be very difficult.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:25 pm to Indfanfromcol
quote:This is how it should work out in the end. I think OP nailed it though.
IMO, it comes down to ATL @ Nola. Whoever wins that game, wins the division.
Just beating ATL and finishing with same record isn't winning the division. Saints still control their own destiny though, but it's about CAR, ATL and @TB. Win those and nothing else matters.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:33 pm to drizztiger
quote:
But I'll also add the Saints could lose one division game, but still go 3-1 (beating CHI) and hope Carolina beats ATL week 17.
most likely scenario to me is ATL drops the next two @GB and vs. PIT...Pitt has a lot to play for and has looked very good at times.
...then Saints win any 3, and we're in with a better record.
ATL gonna lose to PIT before they lose to CAR, imo
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:36 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
Yep. It can be done by either team if they lose this game but it'd be very difficult.
...doesn't seem that difficult.
ATL plays 2 good teams coming up...we play 2 shite teams
...any given Sunday and all, but we'll see if it comes down to Saints/Falcons
This post was edited on 12/1/14 at 6:38 pm
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:37 pm to drake20
quote:Oh I agree. Was just pointing out possible scenario if Saints drop a division game, but need the division tie-breaker to be equal.
ATL gonna lose to PIT before they lose to CAR, imo
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:39 pm to drake20
We're Saints fans though, we've see some crazy shite happen.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 6:46 pm to drizztiger
ya
I'm nervous about it, but we have to feel good about where we sit.
4 games left against teams with a combined 15-32-1 record compared to ATL's much tougher schedule.
...2 of these games are at home.
Even as up and down as we've been this season, I can't imagine losing at home vs. ATL or @TB in a win or go home situation
I'm nervous about it, but we have to feel good about where we sit.
4 games left against teams with a combined 15-32-1 record compared to ATL's much tougher schedule.
...2 of these games are at home.
Even as up and down as we've been this season, I can't imagine losing at home vs. ATL or @TB in a win or go home situation
This post was edited on 12/1/14 at 6:49 pm
Posted on 12/1/14 at 8:10 pm to ClientNumber9
If we can't win the games against our shitty division in the dome and against a tb team who will be 1 week away from vacation on the road then we REALLY don't deserve to go to the playoffs.
Posted on 12/1/14 at 8:12 pm to ClientNumber9
we quite possibly have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL
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