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Posted on 1/24/17 at 5:47 pm to chRxis
quote:
not gonna lie, that was a great year for the saints, but your statement is true mainly because of the 62-7 game vs. Indy, which skewed that stat just a tad... yes, we scored a lot of points, but Drew, just like MANY QBs in this league, racked up a bunch of garbage time yardage and a few TDs...
quote:
but as far as garbage time, here you go... you like homework, so check out 2011
This should be fun:
2011:
quote:
week 1, vs. GB
Garbage time? We had the ball on the 1 yard line on the last play of the game with a chance to tie it.
Fun fact, we started that drive from the Green Bay 1 with 1:08 on the clock and ZERO timeouts. We ran 8 plays, and got to the Green Bay 1 yard line for a chance to tie the game. Ingram was stuffed.
Holy shite you're an idiot
quote:
week 6, vs. TB...
Our last drive ended on a 4th down attempt from the Tampa Bay 4 yard line down 6.
quote:
week 8 vs. StL..
That was the 1 I was referring to. He had 1 drive of garbage time where he threw a TD and totaled 79 yards
quote:
week 16 vs. Atl...
Yes, he had a grand total of 32 yards and a TD after we had put the game away. Really substantial
quote:
week 17 vs. Car...
He was pulled in the 3rd quarter....
So for the 2011 season, he totaled 111 yards in garbage time. Real fricking huge chunk.
Nice homework
2013:
quote:
2013, week 3 vs. AZ... week 4 vs. Mia.. .week 8 vs. Buf... week 10 vs. Dal... week 13 vs. Sea... week 14 vs. Car... week 15 vs. StL...
quote:
week 3 vs. AZ...
Our last drive started with 12 minutes to go in the game. We took 6 minutes of the clock to put it away. Not much room for garbage time.
quote:
week 4 vs. Mia..
21 point game for our first drive in the 4th, so I'll give you the whole quarter...55 yards passing. Wowzas
quote:
week 8 vs. Buf
An 11 point game entering the 4th. Drew's last pass came with the Saints up 11 on 3rd and 20 with over 7 minutes to go. That isn't garbage time. That is sealing the victory. Even so, an insane 53 yards passing in the entire 4th quarter.
quote:
week 10 vs. Dal...
Last throw came with 13 minutes to go connecting on a 52 yard bomb. A huge 65 yards passing in the 4th.
quote:
week 13 vs. Sea...\
Loudest game I've ever been at. My bachelor party. Great time
Brees put up 53 yards passing in the entire 2nd half.
quote:
week 14 vs. Car...
61 yards passing the entire 4th quarter. Basically all of it came on a drive that started with 13 minutes left and ended with 10
You don't even know what garbage time is
quote:
, i'm not saying him getting that yardage is good or bad, i'm just arguing the FACT that he does get a lot of yardage after the game is pretty much decided, aka "garbage time".... and i'm not saying this is exclusively a Drew Brees thing, as pretty much all QBs, at certain points rack up yards and possibly TDs in garbage time, but, again, i'm just saying that a lot of his yardage is basically meaningless to the actual outcome of the game... it looks nice on the stat sheet, but it's not really doing much other than that...
K
That is why you corrected someone else's post to say this:
quote:
But he just keeps on rolling up garbage time stats
Yea, you TOTALLY weren't meaning it as negative thing. Adding to that, since stats we're talking about comparing him to other great QBs, then your entire point is just meaningless and retarded.
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 5:54 pm to chRxis
quote:
i never said you fail to comprehend shite... you do a decent job.
Hmmm
quote:
nah, i've seen your cap "homework".... i stand by my original statement...
quote:
and are desperate for validation on this site... it's actually quite sad, and i sorta feel for you.... it's must suck to NEED vindication from strangers on a message board that bad... but, hey.... if you need me to stroke your ego, okay... here it goes....
So do I think way to highly of myself or need validation? I def think too highly of myself, but you're giving yourself way too much credit here.
You sure think about me a lot. Weird
quote:
you are the BESTEST cap guy here!!!
Bone is the best cap guy on here.
I fully appreciate this dedication to deflecting from getting destroyed in this thread. Numbers are hard. Done
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 6:48 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 6:59 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
So do I think way to highly of myself or need validation? I def think too highly of myself, but you're giving yourself way too much credit here.
re-read it again, and perhaps you will understand it.... i can break it down in "simpler" terms, if you need me to, but i would think someone so intelligent as to absolutely nail down the cap, self-proclaimed, i shouldn't need to...
quote:i'm not going to apologize for your thin skin... i honestly wasn't saying you didn't know shite about the cap... i said you and i are about on the same page, and that was AFTER you tried insulting me about my knowledge of the cap... you know some shite, but again, you think yourself something unbelievable, and to be honest, you are slightly above average... sorry to break it to you...
i never said you fail to comprehend shite... you do a decent job.
Hmmm
quote:
you're giving yourself way too much credit here.
this was about as half arse an attempt to turn this around on me as i've ever seen...
quote:absolutely... and you know what else he is.... humble about it... he doesn't showboat his far superior (that's not a joke, that dude knows his shite...) knowledge... you are barely above the norm and beat your fricking chest like you are the baddest son of a bitch around... fyi, you ain't....
Bone is the best cap guy on here.
quote:
I fully appreciate this dedication to deflecting from getting destroyed in this thread. Numbers are hard. Done
again, if you could understand the POINT i was making, that a chunk, not all, or a majority, but a chunk of his yardage is attributed to garbage time, then the numbers, whether 32 yards in the 4th quarter, or 53 or whatever, are ALL part of what i was saying.... it just is.... he may get the score closer even, but there are many times he's reeling off yardage that's only going to make the outcome look better than it actually was... good or bad, right or wrong, again, that's the FACT of the matter... and AGAIN, it wasn't meant as a slight to his yardage total, but to use that line, as the OP did, is loaded.... THAT'S what i was try to get at... but words are harder, evidently....
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 7:39 pm to chRxis
quote:
again, if you could understand the POINT i was making, that a chunk, not all, or a majority, but a chunk of his yardage is attributed to garbage time, then the numbers, whether 32 yards in the 4th quarter, or 53 or whatever, are ALL part of what i was saying.... it just is.... he may get the score closer even, but there are many times he's reeling off yardage that's only going to make the outcome look better than it actually was... good or bad, right or wrong, again, that's the FACT of the matter... and AGAIN, it wasn't meant as a slight to his yardage total, but to use that line, as the OP did, is loaded.... THAT'S what i was try to get at... but words are harder, evidently....
You are so full of shite
If it wasn't meant as a slight to his total yardage, then why did you take a perfectly fine quote:
quote:
But he just keeps on rolling up stats and breaking NFL records…..
And replace it with this:
quote:
But he just keeps on rolling up garbage time stats and breaking NFL records…..
That is 100% meant as a slight, then followed by this:
quote:
well, perhaps if he didn't quite as large a contract, which would allow for a better overall TEAM, maybe they would have been more relevant and he wouldn't have been ignored so much... but you know... those Jimmie Johns aren't gonna open themselves...
Yea, you weren't trying to be negative, you were just misunderstood.
But hey, at least we can agree that his playoff numbers are great right?
quote:
and it would be impressive... if the numbers were correct..
Well until you were wrong:
quote:
so the original was right, i was wrong.... e
ither way, he is far from being "great" in the playoffs... 11
:rotflmao:
quote:
that a chunk, not all, or a majority, but a chunk of his yardage is attributed to garbage time, then the numbers, whether 32 yards in the 4th quarter, or 53 or whatever, are ALL part of what i was saying.... it just is.... he may get the score closer even,
Lets pull a direct quote:
quote:
look, when it comes down to it, posting these moral victory tweets and meaningless stats does nothing... you can always pick and choose some loaded stats when it comes to Brees... but you telling me that large chunk of those yards, each year he's gone for 5k, aren't in garbage time? c'mon man... or saying he's the "best of the best"... bruh...
So in 2011 and 2013, did a "large chunk" of his 5k come from garbage time stats?
Then again, you claimed that 2 games from 2011 where we were playing to tie or win on the last drive, inside the opponents 5 yard line, were garbage time.
You just continuously yank crap out of your arse. So around 2% of his yardage in 2011 came in "garbage time", and that is being generous on my part. 2013 and even this year wouldn't be that much better or substantial.
That is not a "large chunk".
Bottom line, I've backed up my points with stats and FACTS. You keep using that word, but apparently have no idea what it means.
T
Posted on 1/24/17 at 7:55 pm to chRxis
FANTASY COMPOSTING: DIGGING INTO GARBAGE TIME
Pro Football Focus
10.5 Pounds of Garbage in an 8 Pound Bag
In 2013, there were 2,675 plays that took place during garbage time as defined above, or 8 percent of all offensive snaps (33,302). Teams that were trailing during garbage time scored 105 touchdowns, or 8.6 percent of all offensive touchdowns (1214).
Losing teams hit paydirt on 3.9 percent of their 2013 garbage time snaps, while the overall league-wide scoring rate was 3.6 percent. That may not seem eye-popping, but it is the difference between a touchdown on every 25.6 snaps versus one for every 27.4 snaps. In other words, if the league had scored at the same pace that losing teams did during garbage time, there would have been more than 85 additional touchdowns scored in 2013.
The Oakland Raiders ran 16.9 percent of their plays while down at least 15 points in the second half of games and scored 27.3 percent of their touchdowns during those snaps. If they had scored at the same rate as they did while losing during garbage time (one per 18.8 snaps), their 53 offensive touchdowns would have ranked second only to Denver. Instead they placed 22nd with 33 scores.
Touchdowns are not the only area in which garbage time gives offenses a boost on what they usually accomplish, and the worst teams in the league are not the only ones taking advantage. The Indianapolis Colts ran 11.1 percent of their plays while trailing more than two touchdowns during the second half of games and compiled 15 percent of their total offensive yards during that time.
Not surprisingly, that figure is buoyed by passing totals, as the Colts gained 19.7 percent of their air yards during the 11.1 percent of plays spent in garbage time. They gained 3.6 passing yards for every offensive snap during the 2013 season, but 6.5 per play during garbage time. At that rate, the Colts would have thrown for 6,650 yards, or nearly 3,000 more than they actually did.
Obviously that is an unrealistic total — Denver led the league with 5,444 passing yards — but it tells us two things. The first is not news, and if the whole “working with Andrew Luck” thing fails, Pep Hamilton can always fall back on a career as a 1920s high school coach. The second is that, like touchdowns, a lot of passing yards are packed into a representatively smaller segment of plays during garbage time. To be exact, 10.5 percent of the NFL’s passing yards were gained by teams losing in garbage time, which encompassed 8 percent of 2013 offensive snaps.
The tricky part is finding a way to harness the runoff from what clearly are game situations that produce touchdowns and passing yards at a higher than usual rate.
SAINTS NOT LISTED IN THE STUDY********
Pro Football Focus
quote:
As fantasy enthusiasts, we recognize that production is mainly a function of talent and opportunity. Thankfully, resources that aid in differentiating players along those lines abound. Yet once we digest 40-times, size, snaps, routes, and targets, to name just a handful, we remain hungry for further differentiators.
The idea of “garbage time” sometimes seeps into this discussion and typically is discarded. But should it be? For an especially sick segment of degenerates who, if given the opportunity, may or may not be above sifting through a player’s trash just to get an infinitesimal edge on the competition, delving into the phenomenon known as garbage time seems far less distasteful.
Before deciding if we care enough to examine how individual players perform during garbage time, we need to weigh whether or not it is even a dumpster worth diving into. Do teams actually take advantage of “prevent defenses,” and, if so, to what degree? If performance spikes do exist, can we capitalize on them in a meaningful way? Grab your rubber gloves, because we are going to pick through these questions and more, as we attempt to salvage some usable fantasy items from a heaping statistical landfill.
Like last summer, we are again defining garbage time as any play that occurs in the second half of a game in which one team is losing by at least 15 points. While such a deficit is not completely insurmountable, the goal is to identify game situations during which defenses begin to shift focus toward preventing chunk plays and quick scores, more so than contesting every last yard. Defensive and special teams statistics have been omitted from all data.
10.5 Pounds of Garbage in an 8 Pound Bag
In 2013, there were 2,675 plays that took place during garbage time as defined above, or 8 percent of all offensive snaps (33,302). Teams that were trailing during garbage time scored 105 touchdowns, or 8.6 percent of all offensive touchdowns (1214).
Losing teams hit paydirt on 3.9 percent of their 2013 garbage time snaps, while the overall league-wide scoring rate was 3.6 percent. That may not seem eye-popping, but it is the difference between a touchdown on every 25.6 snaps versus one for every 27.4 snaps. In other words, if the league had scored at the same pace that losing teams did during garbage time, there would have been more than 85 additional touchdowns scored in 2013.
The Oakland Raiders ran 16.9 percent of their plays while down at least 15 points in the second half of games and scored 27.3 percent of their touchdowns during those snaps. If they had scored at the same rate as they did while losing during garbage time (one per 18.8 snaps), their 53 offensive touchdowns would have ranked second only to Denver. Instead they placed 22nd with 33 scores.
Touchdowns are not the only area in which garbage time gives offenses a boost on what they usually accomplish, and the worst teams in the league are not the only ones taking advantage. The Indianapolis Colts ran 11.1 percent of their plays while trailing more than two touchdowns during the second half of games and compiled 15 percent of their total offensive yards during that time.
Not surprisingly, that figure is buoyed by passing totals, as the Colts gained 19.7 percent of their air yards during the 11.1 percent of plays spent in garbage time. They gained 3.6 passing yards for every offensive snap during the 2013 season, but 6.5 per play during garbage time. At that rate, the Colts would have thrown for 6,650 yards, or nearly 3,000 more than they actually did.
Obviously that is an unrealistic total — Denver led the league with 5,444 passing yards — but it tells us two things. The first is not news, and if the whole “working with Andrew Luck” thing fails, Pep Hamilton can always fall back on a career as a 1920s high school coach. The second is that, like touchdowns, a lot of passing yards are packed into a representatively smaller segment of plays during garbage time. To be exact, 10.5 percent of the NFL’s passing yards were gained by teams losing in garbage time, which encompassed 8 percent of 2013 offensive snaps.
The tricky part is finding a way to harness the runoff from what clearly are game situations that produce touchdowns and passing yards at a higher than usual rate.
quote:
What’s In This Garbage?
As can probably be gleaned from the details above or even a loosely educated guess, there is not an enormous amount of running being done by teams that are trailing during garbage time. The fact that even Pep Hamilton was airing it out tells us everything we need to know, but for the sake of math it should be mentioned that losing teams passed on 76 percent of their garbage time snaps in 2013. That number was up from 54.4 percent overall.
What may not be entirely intuitive is the fact that teams did not pass particularly well when defenses “relaxed” during garbage time. Volume was up, but efficiency was largely down.
quote:
Yards per play is the only category listed in which garbage time outperformed the league norm. That has a lot to do with the fact that while runs gained 4.2 yards overall, they went for 4.8 yards per attempt during garbage time when losing teams were handing off.
With teams throwing like crazy to catch up against defenses that were pinning their ears back to get to the passer while defending against big plays, it makes sense that sack rates were up and yards per attempt were down. Throw in the fact that teams who often trail in garbage time tend to not be very good to begin with, and it hammers home the point that statistical gains come mainly via volume.
Listed below are the teams that ran at least 10 percent of their plays while down 15 or more points in the second half of their games. Also detailed is the percentage of their total yards, passing yards, and touchdowns that were accrued during garbage time. Next to each of those is a column (Diff.) in which it is compared to their overall garbage time percentage. This allows us to see which teams took advantage of garbage time and which did not.
quote:
Team GT Plays GT % GT Yard % Diff. GT Pass Yard % Diff. GT TD % Diff.
Jaguars 234 22.9% 26.0% 3.1% 30.0% 7.1% 21.7% -1.2%
Rams 184 19.0% 18.2% -0.8% 22.9% 3.9% 21.9% 2.9%
Raiders 169 16.9% 19.5% 2.6% 23.6% 6.7% 27.3% 10.4%
Jets 151 14.8% 14.7% -0.1% 16.7% 1.9% 16.0% 1.2%
Giants 146 14.8% 16.3% 1.5% 17.0% 2.2% 17.2% 2.4%
Redskins 158 14.3% 15.3% 1.0% 18.7% 4.4% 20.6% 6.3%
Texans 149 13.7% 11.2% -2.5% 10.2% -3.5% 7.7% -6.0%
Vikings 114 11.3% 10.6% -0.7% 11.6% 0.3% 12.2% 0.9%
Colts 113 11.1% 15.0% 3.9% 19.7% 8.6% 15.8% 4.7%
Falcons 113 11.0% 12.0% 1.0% 12.0% 1.0% 16.2% 5.2%
Browns 116 10.8% 11.0% 0.2% 13.2% 2.4% 13.3% 2.5%
Buccaneers 103 10.5% 7.6% -2.9% 9.7% -0.8% 3.6% -6.9%
SAINTS NOT LISTED IN THE STUDY********
quote:
The first thing that jumps out is the fact that a vast majority of the teams who spent the most time losing in garbage time were among the worst in the league. This is not shocking and can be viewed as a positive as far as predictability is concerned.
Posted on 1/24/17 at 8:07 pm to Mrwhodat
continued:
DREW BREES NOT LISTED IN THE STUDY********
[quote]The issue with adjusting a player’s production percentage with the amount of time their entire offense spends in garbage time is that it does not account for the exact snaps that the player was on the field. They may be spending time on the bench during a blowout, for example. Alas, we do not have that precise information available and are forced to utilize a still useful, if somewhat blunter, tool.
We will wrap up with a look at several individual players and what their inclusion may mean for the 2014 season.
Josh Gordon – Because there is precious little not to like about Gordon’s game, it sticks out like a sore thumb that he feasted so deeply during garbage time that Jared Lorenzen’s mouth watered. Cleveland spent the 11th-most time trailing by more than two touchdowns in the second halves of their games, and the bet here is that will not be repeated in 2014 despite their front office disarray. Improved quarterback play, and a seemingly inevitable increase on his single red zone score, will need to make up for what he is unlikely to repeat in garbage time production (17 catches, 338 yards and two touchdowns).
Brandon Myers – Proclaimed the Garbage Man before last season, somehow the Giants’ tight end managed to weasel his way inside the top 20 at his position. Of course he was unusable in fantasy for all but a small handful of weeks, and only reached the heights of TE19 due to an unnatural talent for stat padding. Assumed to be in for fewer garbage time opportunities with his move to New York, their disappointing season allowed Myers to again catch half of his touchdowns and over 20 percent of his yards while games were out of hand. [quote]
quote:
The first thing that jumps out is the fact that a vast majority of the teams who spent the most time losing in garbage time were among the worst in the league. This is not shocking and can be viewed as a positive as far as predictability is concerned.
It is far less encouraging that the offenses of the Texans and Buccaneers not only gained zero boost from trailing in garbage time but actually produced at a weaker rate. The Vikings’ and Jets’ offenses did not exactly set the world on fire either. It appears that simply being a bad team and destined for a large portion of snaps while trailing in garbage time does not automatically equate to greater production while in those situations.
Incidentally, the five teams that spent the most time getting blown out late in games did not fire their head coaches. However, the five teams on the list whose coaches were canned fared poorly during garbage time relative to the other squads listed, with the possible exception of Washington. It may be coincidental, or it may mean that if your team cannot even muster better production against defenses that are backing off during garbage time, you might want to brush up the resume.
One Man’s Trash …
We now know that touchdowns and passing yards occur at a noticeably higher rate during garbage time. It is also obvious that bad teams are trailing by at least two touchdowns in the second half more than other squads. However, since we cannot be certain which of those offenses will best capitalize on more accommodating situations or take any advantage at all, making concrete recommendations based on anticipated garbage time is difficult. While this is somewhat discouraging, it does not require us to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Since we know that juicing offensive statistics during garbage time is relatively unpredictable, it stands to reason that individual players who are positive outliers are due for some degree of regression. To search out those who derived a disproportionate amount of their fantasy production during garbage time, I examined 200 players, most of whom led the league in garbage time statistics.
I added a handful of other notable names to the sample for comparison sake, and simply because it is interesting to note that Jamaal Charles’ 39 garbage time rushing yards represented just 1.03% of his PPR league points total. Considering Kansas City spent 2.82% of their snaps trailing in garbage time, we can confidently say that Charles earned his title as 2013’s best fantasy running back. Not that this was a question.
The key figure by which these players will be ranked is what we will call “adjusted Garbage Time percentage” (aGT%). It is simply the difference between the percentage of points that a player accumulated while trailing during garbage time, minus the percentage of time his team spent in garbage time. In Charles’ case, his aGT% would be -1.79 because he accrued a smaller percentage of his stats during garbage time than the Chiefs spent there.
While examining a stud like Charles is interesting, we are actually seeking players on the opposite end of the spectrum so we can identify performers who derived a disproportionately large percentage of their fantasy points during garbage time.
An example would be Da’Rick Rogers of the Colts. He put up 86 yards and two touchdowns on four catches while Indy was losing in garbage time. His 24.6 garbage time points represent 55.4 percent of Rogers’ PPR league total of 45.2 points. The Colts only spent 11.1 percent of their snaps losing in garbage time, so Rogers’ aGT% is 43.4 percent. That is a huge number, and second only to Buffalo’s Chris Gragg, who scored so few points this season (16.3) that the results are not significant.
There were 33 players who had an aGT% of at least 5 percent and scored at least 100 fantasy points, including a pair who finished 2013 ranked in the overall top 20. Just because a player appears on this list does not necessarily mean they are due for a statistical decline, but it undeniably means that they enjoyed a disproportionate amount of production during garbage time in 2013.
quote:
Player Team PPR Pts GT Pts GT% Team GT% aGT%
B Myers NYG 123.2 39.1 31.74% 14.78% 16.96%
T Williams DAL 147.5 29.9 20.27% 5.12% 15.15%
M Reece OAK 110.9 33.7 30.39% 16.90% 13.49%
H Douglas ATL 202.8 49 24.16% 11.04% 13.13%
J Locker TEN 105.8 18.9 17.86% 4.75% 13.12%
J Cutler CHI 179.6 35.4 19.71% 8.39% 11.32%
A Pettis STL 101.9 30.6 30.03% 19.01% 11.02%
R Streater OAK 173.4 47.2 27.22% 16.90% 10.32%
S Bradford STL 122.7 35.8 29.18% 19.01% 10.17%
S Moss WAS 101.2 24.3 24.01% 14.27% 9.74%
J Gordon CLE 314.4 62.8 19.97% 10.76% 9.21%
R Griffin WAS 229 53.6 23.41% 14.27% 9.13%
J Cotchery PIT 166.2 26.4 15.88% 7.53% 8.36%
B Weeden CLE 100.6 19 18.89% 10.76% 8.13%
M Colston NO 199.3 19.3 9.68% 1.58% 8.11%
S Vereen NE 134.1 19.1 14.24% 6.41% 7.83%
C Fleener IND 136.3 25.7 18.86% 11.05% 7.81%
A Luck IND 297.6 55.1 18.51% 11.05% 7.47%
M Brown BAL 143.2 21.8 15.22% 8.26% 6.97%
E Sanders PIT 177 25.5 14.41% 7.53% 6.88%
C Shorts JAX 161.7 48.1 29.75% 22.94% 6.81%
A Foster HOU 106.5 21.5 20.19% 13.68% 6.51%
J Reed WAS 114.7 23.8 20.75% 14.27% 6.48%
T Pryor OAK 158.1 36.8 23.28% 16.90% 6.38%
D Sproles NO 176.9 13.9 7.86% 1.58% 6.28%
E Manning NYG 201.3 41.8 20.77% 14.78% 5.99%
M Rivera OAK 102.7 23.3 22.69% 16.90% 5.79%
M Floyd ARZ 199.1 18.8 9.44% 3.86% 5.59%
Z Ertz PHI 106.9 12.6 11.79% 6.36% 5.43%
J Campbell CLE 127.3 20.4 16.03% 10.76% 5.26%
T Hilton IND 220.9 35.6 16.12% 11.05% 5.07%
M Jones CIN 188.7 17.3 9.17% 4.10% 5.07%
C Henne JAX 175.2 49 27.97% 22.94% 5.03%
DREW BREES NOT LISTED IN THE STUDY********
[quote]The issue with adjusting a player’s production percentage with the amount of time their entire offense spends in garbage time is that it does not account for the exact snaps that the player was on the field. They may be spending time on the bench during a blowout, for example. Alas, we do not have that precise information available and are forced to utilize a still useful, if somewhat blunter, tool.
We will wrap up with a look at several individual players and what their inclusion may mean for the 2014 season.
Josh Gordon – Because there is precious little not to like about Gordon’s game, it sticks out like a sore thumb that he feasted so deeply during garbage time that Jared Lorenzen’s mouth watered. Cleveland spent the 11th-most time trailing by more than two touchdowns in the second halves of their games, and the bet here is that will not be repeated in 2014 despite their front office disarray. Improved quarterback play, and a seemingly inevitable increase on his single red zone score, will need to make up for what he is unlikely to repeat in garbage time production (17 catches, 338 yards and two touchdowns).
Brandon Myers – Proclaimed the Garbage Man before last season, somehow the Giants’ tight end managed to weasel his way inside the top 20 at his position. Of course he was unusable in fantasy for all but a small handful of weeks, and only reached the heights of TE19 due to an unnatural talent for stat padding. Assumed to be in for fewer garbage time opportunities with his move to New York, their disappointing season allowed Myers to again catch half of his touchdowns and over 20 percent of his yards while games were out of hand. [quote]
Posted on 1/24/17 at 8:17 pm to Mrwhodat
continued:
DREW BREES IS NOT LISTED IN THE STUDY:
quote:
His pathetic blocking skills will work against him on the free agent market, yet it seems unwise to completely disregard fantasy’s top garbage man.
Indianapolis Colts (3) – Luck, Coby Fleener, and T.Y. Hilton are among the highest scoring players on the list and it is a strong bet that they will not be making a return appearance. Anticipated upgrades to the offensive line and defense should have Indy spending less time trailing big late in 2014 games, not to mention afford their smash-mouth offensive coordinator extra opportunities to have Luck hand the ball off. We have yet to see Pep willingly choose to go pass-heavy on a consistent basis, and until we do, it is hard to expect otherwise.
Chad Henne – Both he and his top target, Cecil Shorts, were forecast to be premiere garbage time stat padders and that was one of the few areas in which they delivered. Ace Sanders also was touted and wound up accruing 27 percent of his stats during garbage time and posting a 4.1 aGT% in the process. This is a well that will likely run dry as the Jaguars seem to be moving in the right direction, especially on defense. Many moving parts must be accounted for before training camp, but it would be a surprise if Jacksonville again led the NFL in total garbage time percentage.
Jake Locker – The Titans only spent the 20th-most time trailing big in the second half, but Locker managed to show up on the aGT% leaders anyway. He just made the 100 fantasy point cutoff and might be an example of a blind spot in the aGT% metric due to his missing so many of Tennessee’s snaps in 2013. Still, the fact that nearly 18 percent of his production came during the rare window that his team was losing in garbage time does not help his case that he should pilot the Titans under new coach Ken Whisenhunt.
The last chart below details the same thing as the one above, only these are the players that took disproportionately little advantage of their opportunities while trailing in garbage time. It does not automatically mean that next season will be different, especially as a number of these players are on quality teams and probably will spend little time losing big late in games. I cut it off at an aGT% of -3 percent to keep the number of players listed more manageable.
quote:
Player Team PPR Pts GT Pts GT% Team GT% aGT%
A Brown PIT 302.7 12.9 4.26% 7.53% -3.27%
D Bryant DAL 294.5 5.4 1.83% 5.12% -3.29%
J Simpson MIN 126.1 10 7.93% 11.25% -3.32%
R Randle NYG 137.6 15.6 11.34% 14.78% -3.44%
L McCoy PHI 332.2 9.5 2.86% 6.36% -3.50%
Jones-Drew JAX 184.2 35.2 19.11% 22.94% -3.83%
G Graham HOU 132.5 12.6 9.51% 13.68% -4.17%
R Cooper PHI 180.3 3.9 2.16% 6.36% -4.19%
J Kerley NYJ 114.4 12.1 10.58% 14.80% -4.23%
M Forte CHI 337.8 13.8 4.09% 8.39% -4.31%
R White ATL 151.1 10 6.62% 11.04% -4.42%
A Morris WAS 183.8 17.9 9.74% 14.27% -4.53%
Z Stacy STL 185.2 26.3 14.20% 19.01% -4.81%
V Jackson TB 241.9 12.5 5.17% 10.50% -5.33%
B Rainey TB 102.4 4.5 4.39% 10.50% -6.10%
A Johnson HOU 279.7 18.1 6.47% 13.68% -7.21%
A Peterson MIN 236.2 8.6 3.64% 11.25% -7.61%
H Nicks NYG 145.6 9.2 6.32% 14.78% -8.46%
DREW BREES IS NOT LISTED IN THE STUDY:
quote:
It is nice to see one of the receivers forecast last August as a probable leading garbage time stat padder, Jeremy Kerley, in the bottom 10 in aGT% (no, it’s not). Yet it is another example of the unpredictability of garbage time, where betting on positive production feels like herding rabid, catnipped felines.
While we can definitely declare that garbage time possesses a higher-octane statistical output, the rub has always been translating that into usable fantasy methods. Forecasting regression is likely to prove true among the positive outliers, but is by no means a universal rule. It is best looked at as a stern warning. However, aGT% did tell us one thing for certain. The Garbage Man’s unnatural talent is going to cost fellow free agent Hakeem Nicks some money.
Posted on 1/24/17 at 8:32 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
If it wasn't meant as a slight to his total yardage, then why did you take a perfectly fine quote:
quote:
But he just keeps on rolling up stats and breaking NFL records…..
And replace it with this:
quote:
But he just keeps on rolling up garbage time stats and breaking NFL records…..
because thats how I view those meaningless yards... it's all nice and great for Drew to throw for 5k, but when we are churning out 7-9 year after year, you start to really not give a shite about how many yards he's passing for... whether a "chunk", "large chunk", boat load, whatever...
yeah, let's all bask in the glory of NOT getting to the playoffs, drafting in a mediocre position AGAIN, and wasting ANOTHER year with a franchise QB... dem moral victories doe...
quote:
That is 100% meant as a slight, then followed by this:
no, it's not a slight... good on him... he threw for a bunch of yards!!! unfortunately yards don't equal points.... again, the stats sound all nice and shite, but it evidently ain't equaling wins... or enough of them anyway...
quote:
Yea, you weren't trying to be negative, you were just misunderstood.
no, that part was absolutely to be negative... Brady took less money than he was worth, a lot less, and signed very favorable deals to help his team out.... how's that working out for them? i'd say pretty well.... and yes i know we've missed on FA's and shite the bed in the draft, but we still have a good portion of the cap going to only one player on the team... that doesn't leave much for anything else...
quote:i was wrong about the regular season vs. playoff passer rating.... i'm man enough to admit that... but i stand by the fact that he's not GREAT in the playoffs... good, with a 1 year off the chart showing, but that's it.... and yes, i know you about to throw that passer rating out, like that's the end all be all of the discussion, but i'm sorry... if you put together a list of the top 5 to 10 QBs in NFL playoff history, Drew is NOT going to be there...fancy passer rating and all... take the black and gold glasses off...
Well until you were wrong:
quote:
so the original was right, i was wrong.... e
ither way, he is far from being "great" in the playoffs... 11
quote:both games we got down early, had to fight back, which as well know and love, means we abandon the run and go straight to "put it on Drew's back"... that leads to elevate yardage and hopefully elevated TD counts... go back and look at the scoring drives those games... playing from behind because we got down early... sound familiar? we've all seen the movie a thousand times by now....
you claimed that 2 games from 2011 where we were playing to tie or win on the last drive, inside the opponents 5 yard line, were garbage time.
quote:
So around 2% of his yardage in 2011 came in "garbage time", and that is being generous on my part. 2013 and even this year wouldn't be that much better or substantial.
That is not a "large chunk".
again, large chunk, chunk, mega frickton, whatever... are you denying he doesn't get yardage that is meaningless to the outcome of the game, in certain games, when we are up by a large margin or down by a large margin mid 3rd to beginning of the 4th? leave the semantics out of it, and just focus on what i'm trying to get you to understand.... and AGAIN, for the 4th fricking time, he's NOT the only one that does this... every QB piles up shite yardage that doesn't mean anything to the outcome of the game for various reasons...
we obviously disagree on our valuation of Drew... you think he shits gold nuggets and walks on water, whereas i think he drops regular deuces and steps in puddles... it's cool... you do you... cap guru
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 8:48 pm to chRxis
Drew is the one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game; however, he has played on a team that has fielded some of the worst defenses in the history of the NFL. In the end, that fact will hurt his legacy, even though it shouldn't.
Brady is what happens when a great quarterback gets paired with a great defense for his entire career. I believe if Brees played on the Patriots he would have 4 or more Super Bowl titles, and if Brady played on the Saints he might have one Super Bowl but no more.
Brady is what happens when a great quarterback gets paired with a great defense for his entire career. I believe if Brees played on the Patriots he would have 4 or more Super Bowl titles, and if Brady played on the Saints he might have one Super Bowl but no more.
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 9:00 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:00 pm to chRxis
quote:
we obviously disagree on our valuation of Drew... you think he shits gold nuggets and walks on water, whereas i think he drops regular deuces and steps in puddles... it's cool... you do you... cap guru
quote:
maybe in 2009 he was "great", which as a lifelong saints fan i greatly appreciate
Please never describe yourself as a Saints fan. No fan would ever say something like that, knowing the full history of the team.
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:04 pm to chRxis
quote:
because thats how I view those meaningless yards... it's all nice and great for Drew to throw for 5k, but when we are churning out 7-9 year after year, you start to really not give a shite about how many yards he's passing for... whether a "chunk", "large chunk", boat load, whatever...
Yea, that wasn't your argument.
You also applied it to every 5,000 yard season. We've been largely arguing about 2011 and 2013. The Saints went 24-8 in those 2 seasons with 2 playoff wins....
Moving the goal post now since you can't back up your "facts". You didn't say that is how you view those meaningless yards when we are churning 7-9 seasons, you said he was rolling up his stats in garbage time.....
Also, if you don't give a shite, try not commenting on it! Crazy thought.
quote:
yeah, let's all bask in the glory of NOT getting to the playoffs, drafting in a mediocre position AGAIN, and wasting ANOTHER year with a franchise QB... dem moral victories doe...
Yep, everyone here is just celebrating not getting into the playoffs. Exactly what is happening.
Brilliant logic, great comprehension. You realize you can want the Saints to make the playoffs, but also appreciate the individual accomplishments of players on the team right?
quote:
no, it's not a slight... good on him... he threw for a bunch of yards!!! unfortunately yards don't equal points.... again, the stats sound all nice and shite, but it evidently ain't equaling wins... or enough of them anyway...
You brought up TDs too, I believe those equal points. The funny thing is that "garbage time" situations hurt Drew's rating and stats this season. That doesn't fit your closed eyed view that you can't backup with anything though.
quote:
but we still have a good portion of the cap going to only one player on the team... that doesn't leave much for anything else...
I've addressed this idiocy.
quote:
again, large chunk, chunk, mega frickton, whatever... are you denying he doesn't get yardage that is meaningless to the outcome of the game, in certain games, when we are up by a large margin or down by a large margin mid 3rd to beginning of the 4th?
I'm saying that the yardage he gets when the game is no longer in doubt is insignificant, statistically and logically, when judging him and in comparison to his totals. He does not keep "rolling up garbage time stats". Furthermore, I've backed up my opinion with stats that you haven't been able to argue against. I'm still waiting for you to even attempt to support the position that you came up with.
quote:
and AGAIN, for the 4th fricking time, he's NOT the only one that does this... every QB piles up shite yardage that doesn't mean anything to the outcome of the game for various reasons...
So then why did you even bring it up? What relevance did it have to anything?
I believe the above poster also dropped the hammer on this whole thing.
But hey, at least TIL that garbage time stats can happen when your team is on the 4 yard line with a chance to win the game.
Pathetic. I thought you would at least be able to present a challenging argument at one point in this thread.
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 9:09 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:09 pm to Mrwhodat
quote:
Please never describe yourself as a Saints fan. No fan would ever say something like that, knowing the full history of the team.
here we go... :roll eyes:
superfan claim time in 3....2...1....
look, ma'am.... i'm sorry i don't happen to live in a fantasy land where everything i believe is reality.... i live in the real world, where reality is reality.... so let me break it down.... 1.) i AM a saints fan, evidently just the same as you... 2.) we evidently don't have the same regards to a certain player named Drew Brees... 3.) politely go frick 1/2 yourself... 4.) now go frick the other half...
you don't own saints "fandom"... you don't get to say who is, or who isn't a fan... get over yourself, you self-righteous windbag... and no i didn't read that stupid arse study because it was absolutely, embarassingly asinine to the point being made...
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:13 pm to chRxis
quote:
and no i didn't read that stupid arse study because it was absolutely, embarassingly asinine to the point being made...
Jesus Christ you can't make this shite up. Something, something thin skin and snowflake
And your point...You doubled down on the fact Brees gets a substantial, "large chunk", "a lot", of garbage time stats/yards/TDs and argued it pretty fully until I made it apparent you were wrong.
quote:
But he just keeps on rolling up garbage time stats and breaking NFL records…..
quote:
but you telling me that large chunk of those yards, each year he's gone for 5k, aren't in garbage time? c'mon man...
quote:
yes, we scored a lot of points, but Drew, just like MANY QBs in this league, racked up a bunch of garbage time yardage and a few TDs...
quote:
but as far as garbage time, here you go... you like homework, so check out 2011 week 1, vs. GB... week 6, vs. TB... week 8 vs. StL... week 16 vs. Atl... week 17 vs. Car...
And more
quote:
i'm just arguing the FACT that he does get a lot of yardage after the game is pretty much decided, aka "garbage time"....
quote:
but, again, i'm just saying that a lot of his yardage is basically meaningless to the actual outcome of the game... it looks nice on the stat sheet, but it's not really doing much other than that...
quote:
it just is.... he may get the score closer even, but there are many times he's reeling off yardage that's only going to make the outcome look better than it actually was... good or bad, right or wrong, again, that's the FACT of the matter...
Then you had a nice change of pace where you went away from your repeatedly made argument, and brought up the record for the year as "evidence"
quote:
because thats how I view those meaningless yards... it's all nice and great for Drew to throw for 5k, but when we are churning out 7-9 year after year, you start to really not give a shite about how many yards he's passing for... whether a "chunk", "large chunk", boat load, whatever... yeah, let's all bask in the glory of NOT getting to the playoffs, drafting in a mediocre position AGAIN, and wasting ANOTHER year with a franchise QB... dem moral victories doe...
And again:
quote:
no, it's not a slight... good on him... he threw for a bunch of yards!!! unfortunately yards don't equal points.... again, the stats sound all nice and shite, but it evidently ain't equaling wins... or enough of them anyway...
Nah, you didn't move the goal post there at all.
Then you changed "garbage time" or when the game was "pretty much decided" to games that were undecided but we had to come back from
quote:
both games we got down early, had to fight back, which as well know and love, means we abandon the run and go straight to "put it on Drew's back"... that leads to elevate yardage and hopefully elevated TD counts... go back and look at the scoring drives those games... playing from behind because we got down early... sound familiar? we've all seen the movie a thousand times by now....
But the fact that you didn't read the study shouldn't surprise anyone. Why would you let something stupid like facts or numbers or objective data get in the way of what's in your gut.
At least have the balls to stick by what you repeatedly started with if you're going to look like an idiot.
Goodnight
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:42 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
The Saints went 24-8 in those 2 seasons with 2 playoff wins....
holy shite!!!! stop traffic, and while we're at it, print the mutha frickin' shirts!!!!
quote:
Moving the goal post now since you can't back up your "facts"
no, it's your failure to even realize where the fricking goal posts are...
quote:
Also, if you don't give a shite, try not commenting on it! Crazy thought.
ahhh... again, with in reading incomprehension.... i don't care about Drew getting a bunch of yards that don't mean shite... true... 4000 yards and a Lombardi FAR outweigh 5000 yards and a pro bowl invite... but what i DID give a shite about was the, IN MY OPINION, false narrative.... i don't wanna hear about fancy stats when we are watching the SB, just like every member of the Saints are... at home... again...
quote:obviously i went with hyperbole, however, this defeatist mentality of "well, at least Drew got a pro bowl again, and he threw for a bunch of yards, so lets celebrate that" is fricking stupid.... you play to WIN the game... not compile stats...
Yep, everyone here is just celebrating not getting into the playoffs. Exactly what is happening.
quote:
You realize you can want the Saints to make the playoffs, but also appreciate the individual accomplishments of players on the team right?
i appreciate that you you have a much lower bar of expectation than i do... but somehow, that doesn't seem very surprising...
quote:
You brought up TDs too, I believe those equal points.
they do... but if you don't score more TDs than the other team, it's hard to beat them.... or so i'm told... getting a TD to close the gap from 14 to 7 or 16 to 9 or what the frick ever, while still losing the game because you were so far down and you ran out of time to actually comeback, which is nothing new, especially the past couple of seasons it seems, makes it look prettier when we lose, but at the end of the day we still lose... it's putting lipstick on a pig, bro..
quote:
The funny thing is that "garbage time" situations hurt Drew's rating and stats this season. That doesn't fit your closed eyed view that you can't backup with anything though.
sure did hurt him, when he throws 6 INTS and 0 TDs in the span of 2 games... at a crucial part of the season... with EVERYTHING on the line.... that's all on Drew... hard to absolve him from blame on those, especially some of those that were just really bad INTs.... but anyway, let's see... i never said anything about his garbage time passer rating, as you are trying to force that narrative... for whatever reason... you are the one hung up on the rating shite... closed eye view? nah, bro... you may wanna open yours though... i'm not saying Drew is average, far from it.... but he not as untouchable and perfect as I FEEL he's made out to be, and not necessarily by you, but you wanted to dance, so cha cha cha, bro...
quote:#capguru #loomisaintgotshitonme #bestestforumposterever
I've addressed this idiocy.
quote:oh, but he does... and for the 5th fricking time... maybe put the computer on top of your head and it will by some sort of osmotic effect sink in to that evidently super thick cranium of yours that HE. IS. NOT. THE. ONLY. QB. THAT. DOES. THIS.... if there is a god, you will finally, FINALLY understand that i'm not making it out to be that this a Drew only thing, or that he's even necessarily responsible for those stats, as he doesn't call the plays, or dictate the flow of the game on the defensive side of the ball... but to say he doesn't add yardage to his totals for the year during times of the game, in some games, where we are down, or up, and the game is already pretty well decided, is abjectly and patently false....
He does not keep "rolling up garbage time stats"
quote:
So then why did you even bring it up? What relevance did it have to anything?
it had relevance to MY OPINION, and seeing this is a message board for Saints fans to discuss the team, it's players, coaches, etc, i felt and wanted to comment.... you know... how you do from time to time, whether pie in the sky optimistic or down in the dump pessimistic... either way, OPINIONS, i believe, are still a welcomed feature to a message board....
quote:
I believe the above poster also dropped the hammer on this whole thing.
ah yes... some obscure "study" that doesn't prove, nor could it prove, opinion of whether the yards gained are in the "garbage time" of a game....
quote:
Pathetic.
feeling is absolutely mutual...
quote:it helps when the other person in the "argument" understands the points and the context in which the points are trying to be made.... but we can't all get what we want, i guess....
I thought you would at least be able to present a challenging argument at one point in this thread.
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:50 pm to chRxis
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:52 pm to TigerBait1127
nah, you're right... every single yard and TD ever thrown by St. Drew has been totally meaningful, and has never EVER come at a time where we either up or down by a significant amount of points, with not much time left on the clock... ever, ever, ever...
he should be enshrined tomorrow, canonized the day after, and shall ascend on a cloud to heaven on the 3rd, because he's that fricking perfect...
he shall then sit on the right hand of God, because that Jesus dude ain't quite on St. Drew's level, so he's gotta switch to the left side, and there, he will reign and wait for the 2nd coming (which is likely to come before any 2nd Super Bowl, but that's another discussion entirely...) of Christ... or St. Drew.... and then all good believer and cap cruncher extraordinaires shall be gathered up and taken away to paradise to live in peaceful accord for all of eternity....
but, in real life..... he get yards that don't mean shite, SOMETIMES, which are included in his yearly total, which he will eventually break the yardage record, will probably finish 2nd in TDs, will be a first ballot HOF, and will forever be a legend in Black and Gold..... that much is for sure...
obviously, you don't agree, which is your opinion and i respect that... perhaps you can get off your high horse and learn to respect others opinions as well... i'm not holding out hope, but if Trump can be elected fricking president, then anything is possible...
he should be enshrined tomorrow, canonized the day after, and shall ascend on a cloud to heaven on the 3rd, because he's that fricking perfect...
he shall then sit on the right hand of God, because that Jesus dude ain't quite on St. Drew's level, so he's gotta switch to the left side, and there, he will reign and wait for the 2nd coming (which is likely to come before any 2nd Super Bowl, but that's another discussion entirely...) of Christ... or St. Drew.... and then all good believer and cap cruncher extraordinaires shall be gathered up and taken away to paradise to live in peaceful accord for all of eternity....
but, in real life..... he get yards that don't mean shite, SOMETIMES, which are included in his yearly total, which he will eventually break the yardage record, will probably finish 2nd in TDs, will be a first ballot HOF, and will forever be a legend in Black and Gold..... that much is for sure...
obviously, you don't agree, which is your opinion and i respect that... perhaps you can get off your high horse and learn to respect others opinions as well... i'm not holding out hope, but if Trump can be elected fricking president, then anything is possible...
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 9:54 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 9:55 pm to chRxis
quote:
obviously, you don't agree, which is your opinion and i respect that... perhaps you can get off your high horse and learn to respect others opinions as well... i'm not holding out hope, but if Trump can be elected fricking president, then anything is possible...
You've just been so respectful.
And no, I respect opinions that are backed up with logic and fact. While it's nice to see you're calling yours an opinion now instead of a fact like you repeatedly did in this thread, you haven't supported your argument at all.
I have to say, might be my favorite melt I've witnessed.
This post was edited on 1/24/17 at 10:03 pm
Posted on 1/24/17 at 10:03 pm to TigerBait1127
yeah, i guess we were both dicks to each other.... really didn't want to come off that way, so i'm sorry... that's not a good way to be towards fellow fans...
wanna agree to disagree, bump fists, and put this insanely stupid, didn't get shite done all day argument behind us?
wanna agree to disagree, bump fists, and put this insanely stupid, didn't get shite done all day argument behind us?
Posted on 1/24/17 at 10:04 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
I have to say, might be my favorite melt I've witnessed.
funny, because i really could say the same thing...
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