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re: Gun to your head, you MUST go Offense at 11. Who do you pick?

Posted on 3/19/17 at 5:20 pm to
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278665 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 5:20 pm to
Spoken like someone that can never rebut anything I say

Cause I deal with facts
Posted by BigBrod81
Houma
Member since Sep 2010
18966 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 5:54 pm to
quote:

Dontari Poe was a freak. 


There are 4 defensive linemen who are potential 1st rounders alone in this draft who are heavier than Jarvis Jones yet have better shuttle times than Jones had. While none of them are as heavy as Poe, they possess better than good times for linemen. Heavier defensive linemen with impressive short shuttles are more common than you think yet year after year everyone wants to just focus on 40 times. Jarvis Jones is 6'3 248 based off his NFL.com profile.

Jarvis Jones

Derek Barnett (DL03)
HT: 6'3" WT: 259LBS.
POSITION: DE
SCHOOL: Tennessee
ARM LENGTH: 32 1/8"
HANDS: 10"

40 YARD DASH: 4.88 SEC
VERTICAL JUMP: 31.0 INCH
BROAD JUMP: 117.0 INCH
3 CONE DRILL: 6.96 SEC
20 YARD SHUTTLE: 4.44 SEC

LINK

Jonathan Allen (DE)
HT: 6'3" WT: 286LBS.
POSITION: DE
SCHOOL: Alabama
ARM LENGTH: 33 5/8"
HANDS: 9 3/8"

40 YARD DASH: 5.00 SEC
BENCH PRESS: 21 REPS
VERTICAL JUMP: 30.0 INCH
BROAD JUMP: 108.0 INCH
3 CONE DRILL: 7.49 SEC
20 YARD SHUTTLE: 4.50 SEC

LINK

Solomon Thomas (DE)
HT: 6'3" WT: 273LBS.
POSITION: DE
SCHOOL: Stanford
ARM LENGTH: 33"
HANDS: 9 3/8"

40 YARD DASH: 4.69 SEC
BENCH PRESS: 30 REPS
VERTICAL JUMP: 35.0 INCH
BROAD JUMP: 126.0 INCH
3 CONE DRILL: 6.95 SEC
20 YARD SHUTTLE: 4.28 SEC

LINK

Malik McDowell (DL30)
HT: 6'6" WT: 295LBS.
POSITION: DT
SCHOOL: Michigan St.
ARM LENGTH: 34 3/4"
HANDS: 10 1/2"

COMBINE RESULTS
40 YARD DASH: 4.85 SEC
BENCH PRESS: 23 REPS
VERTICAL JUMP: 28.5 INCH
BROAD JUMP: 112.0 INCH
3 CONE DRILL: 7.69 SEC
20 YARD SHUTTLE: 4.53 SEC

LINK

Posted by JustinT37
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2014
1818 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 5:57 pm to
Christian McCaffrey and it's not even close. Young man will be better than his father, stud! Perfect RB for what NFL offenses do in today's game....
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278665 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 7:38 pm to
You're missing the point. Show me other 4.88 edge players in the NFL with good shuttles that are getting sacks. I'm not interested in DT prospects in this draft with shuttles that align with their 40 times. You're making my own point for me
Posted by BigBrod81
Houma
Member since Sep 2010
18966 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 8:27 pm to
quote:

Show me other 4.88 edge players in the NFL with good shuttles that are getting sacks. 


How about I show you prospects who had really good 40 times yet they haven't produced squat in the NFL. Deon Jordan, Keke Mingo, Randy Gregory are just a quick few who come to mind. Remember Martez Wilson? His 40 was 4.49 & he was dog shite as a pass rusher. Why? Because he was inconsistent in college despite his physical gifts. Randy Gregory is a head case. There is more to selecting draft picks than combine measurables which you seem to be infatuated with.

Martez Wilson (LB31)
HT: 6'4" WT: 250LBS.
POSITION: OLB
SCHOOL: Illinois
ARM LENGTH: 34 5/8"
HANDS: 9 3/4"

40 YARD DASH: 4.49 SEC
BENCH PRESS: 23 REPS
VERTICAL JUMP: 36.0 INCH
BROAD JUMP: 124.0 INCH
3 CONE DRILL: 7.04 SEC
20 YARD SHUTTLE: 4.28 SEC

LINK

quote:

Show me other 4.88 edge players in the NFL with good shuttles that are getting sacks. 


quote:

I'm not interested in DT prospects in this draft with shuttles that align with their 40 times


Ok, Mr. 40 yard dash. You said the short shuttle always matches similar with the 40 times. I've proven that to be incorrect. My point is the short shuttle is more important than the 40 when looking at pass rush prospects or defensive linemen period.
This post was edited on 3/19/17 at 9:41 pm
Posted by Carville
Sunshine, LA
Member since Jun 2014
5321 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 8:33 pm to
Trade back for a 4th and 5th and select Engram.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 8:36 pm to
Man Wilson had all the measurables to be great. I wonder what happened?

Or maybe it could be that intangibles really do matter, sometimes way more than measurables.

Just a thought.

(I'm agreeing with you here BigBrod, just in case it wasn't clear).
This post was edited on 3/19/17 at 8:37 pm
Posted by Carville
Sunshine, LA
Member since Jun 2014
5321 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

6'6 4.51 40's OJ Howard is not "more athletic" than Fleener. Blocking, maybe, i'm waiting on the fedex game film of howard to arrive still. Neither are targeted for our offense bc of their blocking skills.

I've never seen Howard catch a ball in traffic.
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278665 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 9:01 pm to
how can you call someone out but have no information to back it up, Brody?

But but but Terrell Suggs!!!!1111
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278665 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 9:07 pm to
Of course intangibles matter. You also have to realize that a player generally will have to meet certain physical thresholds In order to be able to play in the league. As evidenced by the guy spouting off combine numbers above, just not realizing he's proving my point for me
Posted by BigBrod81
Houma
Member since Sep 2010
18966 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

Or maybe it could be that intangibles really do matter, sometimes way more than measurables. 

Just a thought. 


They have to both match up. Tez, while being super athletic, was always inconsistent under Ron Zook at Illinois. That inconsistency followed him to the NFL & it just didn't work out when you met up with athletes who are more gifted or just as gifted as you are. You have to put in the work in the weight room, film room & on the practice field otherwise you will fail as a player. It doesn't matter if you are physically gifted, you have to put in the work.

If you notice a lot of my post concerning draft prospects, I harp on character & work ethic. People overlook these two aspects in the draft process but it is a huge factor. Even Wilson's scouting report addressed character concerns.

quote:

Has character flags and endurance has been questioned. However, Wilson's frame, straight-line speed, and upside will likely entice a franchise to select him on Day 2.


The infatuation with combine measurables can be ridiculous at times because fans want to overlook character flaws yet they want to cry & whine when the team picks a player who turns out to be lazy or causes problems inside the lockeroom.

Back to the measurables vs intangibles for a bit. It's one of things that scares me to death about potentially drafting Taco Charlton. He was inconsistent as they come & struggled to see the field for 3 years at Michigan. Then suddenly he has a good senior season & solid combine so everyone starts to pencil him as a top 15 pick. I'm not feeling it & think he has bust written all over him.
Posted by BigBrod81
Houma
Member since Sep 2010
18966 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

But but but Terrell Suggs!!!!1111 


Shuttle times

Vic Beasley: 4.15

Von Miller: 4.06

Khalil Mack: 4.18

Demarcus Ware: 4.07

Justin Houston 4.37

J.J. Watt 4.21












Jarvis Jones: 4.71


quote:

SackSEER’s other workout metric is the short shuttle run. The drill measures change-of-direction speed, burst, and hip flexibility, which are understandably important to rushing the passer. DeMarcus Ware had a jaw-dropping short shuttle of 4.07 seconds, Aaron Schobel ran the shuttle in 4.03 seconds, and Kyle Vanden Bosch ran the shuttle in 4.08 seconds. No elite edge rusher has emerged from any round of the NFL Draft since at least 1999 with a short shuttle slower than 4.42 seconds.

The importance of the short shuttle appears to be a well-kept secret. There is no significant correlation between draft position and the short shuttle, which suggests that teams basically ignore it. In contrast, research suggests that teams put a fair amount of weight on 40- yard dash times when drafting edge rushers - more weight than any other workout number.
Although there is some relationship between the 40-yard dash and pass rushing success, the 40-yard dash is collinear with both the vertical leap and the short shuttle and does not materially increase the strength of the regression when introduced into the model. Stated more simply, the 40- yard dash is only useful in projecting edge rushers to the extent that it identifies prospects who already have good vertical leaps and short shuttle times.

A great example of the short shuttle’s predictive power relative to the 40-yard dash is Terrell Suggs. Suggs had a phenomenal collegiate sack record, but ran a number of 40-yard dashes at his pro day and only managed to score a poor average of 4.88 seconds. Suggs’ poor 40 time was widely reported (as well as his attendant drop in "draft stock") and it was a mere footnote that Suggs had, on the same day, logged a respectable 4.33-second short shuttle time. Ultimately, the Baltimore Ravens were rewarded handsomely for not overly relying on Suggs’ 40-yard dash.


LINK

This post was edited on 3/19/17 at 9:27 pm
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278665 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 9:45 pm to
Preaching to the choir
Posted by BigBrod81
Houma
Member since Sep 2010
18966 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 10:22 pm to
quote:

Preaching to the choir


That's not what you were saying earlier.

quote:

2, the 40 and agility times usually align, a 6'3" 260lb player who doesnt run fast usually isn't going to move fast in small spaces either. See: Jarvis Jones. 

The mere fact that I can go down the line and look at the 40 times of the top 20 edge sackmen and only 1 of them run lower than a 4.84 40 proves that. I dont need to see shuttle times


I've proven you wrong that being able to run fast in straight line doesn't equate to being able to move fast in space or change direction quickly & vice versa. You said you don't need to see shuttle times but I've thoroughly shown the importance of the shuttle as to how it effects pass rushers. You've done nothing but blow hot air.
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278665 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 10:33 pm to
You've shown one example, Suggs, who everyone & their momma knows his case. I never said there wasn't one, or even a handful over the years. Because what I said is the 40 and shuttle usually are in line. Usually.

Not once have I said shuttles aren't important. shite look at my posts over the last few days. I don't know where you are getting that from.

I've asked you 3x to show me other successful edge players with the same discrepancy(slow 40s/fast shuttles) and you haven't. For someone that will argue anything, your silence is telling me a lot. I've studied combine numbers for 15 years now, you can save your time and not even look, bubba. They are few and far between.
This post was edited on 3/19/17 at 10:36 pm
Posted by BigBrod81
Houma
Member since Sep 2010
18966 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 10:41 pm to
quote:

I've asked you 3x to show me other successful edge players with the same discrepancy(slow 40s/fast shuttles) and you haven't. 


Soon



quote:

I've studied combine numbers for 15 years now, you can save your time 


Just like you said Leonard Fournette wouldn't be as good of a college back as Jeremy Hill, right?
This post was edited on 3/19/17 at 10:48 pm
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278665 posts
Posted on 3/19/17 at 10:54 pm to
quote:

soon



and when fully healthy Barnett cuts his 40 time down at his pro day? Then what?


quote:

Just like you said Leonard Fournette wouldn't be as good of a college back as Jeremy Hill, right?




That's actually not what i said, but ok. I challenge you to go find that quote too.
Posted by LlyodChristmas
The Abandoned Jazzland
Member since Jan 2013
2168 posts
Posted on 3/20/17 at 2:18 pm to
John Ross
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