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Why we don't want to defer the Lakers pick
Posted on 2/9/24 at 10:52 am
Posted on 2/9/24 at 10:52 am
Shamit is correct on this score. With this year's pick in hand, plus another one from the end of the calendar, the Lakers will have three 1sts to put on the table to go big game hunting.
And then why would anyone think that they will be worse next season?
I had previously thought that we would probably defer the pick if it's not top-10, but I now think that there's a good chance that even a pick around #18 would not get deferred (we'd likely just trade it).
7
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:01 am to GOP_Tiger
This years draft is supposed to be one of the worst in recent memories. I imagine #18 this year will be worth much less than a late first next year but who knows. Either way none of the Lakers picks will be used to get us anything of consequence it seems.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:02 am to GOP_Tiger
2024 picks aren't really being valued around the league though 
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:06 am to higgsBoson
quote:The way I keep hearing is it's bad for bad teams at the top looking for an elite level top 5 dude, but it should be fine in the middle to late 1st round with a lot of good options.
This years draft is supposed to be one of the worst in recent memories
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:10 am to GOP_Tiger
I'm not a draft expert, but teams reportedly had no interest in 2024 firsts at the trade deadline. So maybe a "Lotto Pick" isn't as valuable as it seems.
That being said, the Pels aren't looking for an All Star, they just need to hit on a starting caliber center. How is this draft for mobile 7 footers?
That being said, the Pels aren't looking for an All Star, they just need to hit on a starting caliber center. How is this draft for mobile 7 footers?
This post was edited on 2/9/24 at 11:10 am
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:11 am to shel311
A lot of these decent role players are being pushed up the boards because of the weak top end as well. I don't even know if I want to waste salary and a roster spot on anyone in this draft. We'd probably do better with an UDFA who can be developed on a 2 way. 
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:12 am to GOP_Tiger
Isn’t this our last laker pick?
If so, I’m less concerned about the lakers improving their roster going forward.
If the lakers pick is 13-16 range this year I just don’t see a lot of value to the Pels roster in keeping the pick. We have enough young guys on the roster,
My vote would be to defer the pick, gamble on a major lebron/AD injury next year, and hope it turns into a very high pick in 2025. If instead it turns into a late first round pick in 2025 that doesn’t feel like a big whiff to me.
If so, I’m less concerned about the lakers improving their roster going forward.
If the lakers pick is 13-16 range this year I just don’t see a lot of value to the Pels roster in keeping the pick. We have enough young guys on the roster,
My vote would be to defer the pick, gamble on a major lebron/AD injury next year, and hope it turns into a very high pick in 2025. If instead it turns into a late first round pick in 2025 that doesn’t feel like a big whiff to me.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:14 am to TigerinATL
Center position looks rough this year. A lot of absolute projects and limited bigs. Unless you want an archaic big like Edey.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:15 am to TigerinATL
quote:
the Pels aren't looking for an All Star, they just need to hit on a starting caliber center. How is this draft for mobile 7 footers?
Exactly. I can see us packaging the Lakers pick with our own to try to move up enough to grab the next Dereck Lively.
Even if we re-sign JV this summer, he's only getting older and we need to start finding his replacement. We'll obviously be giving Karlo a look there, but I think most of us are still skeptical that he is a future starter. So, the draft will be key, because we won't have much salary that we reasonably want to trade to acquire talent.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:18 am to supe12sta12z
quote:
Center position looks rough this year. A lot of absolute projects and limited bigs. Unless you want an archaic big like Edey.
I heard Filipowski from Duke has looked decent. Edey is almost boban big but recently hes made strides in being more agile and moving his feet. I wouldn’t gamble on him though. There are actually some decent bigs in this draft.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:20 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Even if we re-sign JV this summer
By the way, I did listen to Christian Clark's pod this morning, and he mentioned that JV and his wife have a house here and have their two kids enrolled in school here. It certainly seems unlikely that they would really be looking to leave.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:21 am to Pels_Yaz
Yea but the weak draft pushes him up to the lottery and maybe every higher after the draft process. Some of his post offense aren't going to translate. He's going to have to show that he can be a reliable spacer at the next level. His interior defense is also pretty bad.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:31 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
By the way, I did listen to Christian Clark's pod this morning, and he mentioned that JV and his wife have a house here and have their two kids enrolled in school here. It certainly seems unlikely that they would really be looking to leave.
JV talked about wanting to sign an extension this offseason. If the Pels want him, they can keep him. I don't know where some people are getting the idea that he's going to get $20+ million when he's a nearly 32 year old dinosaur looking to win. Offers from playoff caliber teams likely wouldn't even be the full MLE.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:32 am to GOP_Tiger
I dont care about how it affects the Lakers. I'm not making decisions based on what it does to them. IT's about what it does for us.
There are 9 teams the Lakers won't have a worst record than, unless Lebron got hurt for the rest of the season today, then they might challange that. There's 7 teams that are in the ballpark of them right now:
Indiana, Miami, Orlando, Utah, Chicago, GSW and ATL
I do'nt think they'll end up with a better record than Indy or Miami. Orlando hasn't been great since their hot start, but they've been playing better lately.
I would realistically expect their pick to land around 12-14.
and if it lands at say 13, then i absolutely would take it this year.
And if there's someone we really like, then i'd use pick 13 and our own pick, say 20, to move up to get that person.
There have been a bunch of high quality centers picked in the early teens over the last few years.
Derrick Lively #12
Jalen Duren #13
Mark Williams #15
Sengun #16
Isaiah Stewart #16
Bam #14
Sabonis #11
Myles Turner #11
Nurkic #16
There's one guy almost every year in that range that has turned into a good 5. Just need to get lucky and find that guy.
There are 9 teams the Lakers won't have a worst record than, unless Lebron got hurt for the rest of the season today, then they might challange that. There's 7 teams that are in the ballpark of them right now:
Indiana, Miami, Orlando, Utah, Chicago, GSW and ATL
I do'nt think they'll end up with a better record than Indy or Miami. Orlando hasn't been great since their hot start, but they've been playing better lately.
I would realistically expect their pick to land around 12-14.
and if it lands at say 13, then i absolutely would take it this year.
And if there's someone we really like, then i'd use pick 13 and our own pick, say 20, to move up to get that person.
There have been a bunch of high quality centers picked in the early teens over the last few years.
Derrick Lively #12
Jalen Duren #13
Mark Williams #15
Sengun #16
Isaiah Stewart #16
Bam #14
Sabonis #11
Myles Turner #11
Nurkic #16
There's one guy almost every year in that range that has turned into a good 5. Just need to get lucky and find that guy.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:35 am to supe12sta12z
Saw this mock draft on NBA.com posted last week. Here is what they have for our pick(s):
13. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers): Dalton Knecht
Previous mock draft spot: No. 13
School: Tennessee
Nationality: American
Position: SF
Size: 6-foot-6, 204 lbs
Age: 22
Pro comparison: Max Strus
History says to be careful with players who will turn 23 by the draft. But teams may have just missed on Dalton Knecht last year at Northern Colorado. His 2023-24 production and percentages at Tennessee are nearly identical. Four consecutive 25-point-plus games against SEC opponents have highlighted Knecht’s pro-like shotmaking, scoring skill and frame.
18. New Orleans Pelicans: Tyler Smith
Previous mock draft spot: No. 12
Team: G League Ignite
Nationality: American
Position: PF
Size: 6-foot-11, 224 lbs
Age: 19
Pro comparison: Bobby Portis
At 29 games in, Tyler Smith has been steady enough with his shooting for NBA teams to expect a surefire stretch-4 role player. No projectable off-the-dribble scoring or serious indicators for defensive upside suggest he’ll be more of a supporting piece. But at 6-foot-11, his ability to space the floor, pick-and-pop, and finish plays around the basket could still earn him 20-25 minutes with the right team.
13. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers): Dalton Knecht
Previous mock draft spot: No. 13
School: Tennessee
Nationality: American
Position: SF
Size: 6-foot-6, 204 lbs
Age: 22
Pro comparison: Max Strus
History says to be careful with players who will turn 23 by the draft. But teams may have just missed on Dalton Knecht last year at Northern Colorado. His 2023-24 production and percentages at Tennessee are nearly identical. Four consecutive 25-point-plus games against SEC opponents have highlighted Knecht’s pro-like shotmaking, scoring skill and frame.
18. New Orleans Pelicans: Tyler Smith
Previous mock draft spot: No. 12
Team: G League Ignite
Nationality: American
Position: PF
Size: 6-foot-11, 224 lbs
Age: 19
Pro comparison: Bobby Portis
At 29 games in, Tyler Smith has been steady enough with his shooting for NBA teams to expect a surefire stretch-4 role player. No projectable off-the-dribble scoring or serious indicators for defensive upside suggest he’ll be more of a supporting piece. But at 6-foot-11, his ability to space the floor, pick-and-pop, and finish plays around the basket could still earn him 20-25 minutes with the right team.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:35 am to TeddyPadillac
If we take 2024, can’t the Lakers then simply trade 2025 after draft?
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:43 am to higgsBoson
quote:
This years draft is supposed to be one of the worst in recent memories. I imagine #18 this year will be worth much less than a late first next year but who knows. Either way none of the Lakers picks will be used to get us anything of consequence it seems.
I'll play devil's advocate here- seems irresponsible for NBA GMs to be this confident about draft prospects in the 2nd half of the 1st round a full year+ out. And typically picks become most valuable on draft night or close to it.
I'd expect we take the 24 pick unless the Lakers make it to the conference semis or better.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:46 am to supe12sta12z
quote:
Unless you want an archaic big like Edey.
hell we could probably get him with our own pick.
He's not going in the 10-15 range.
Kyle Filipowski is the one of the top 5 on the draft board, and he's more of a small ball 5, but he's projected around 10-14.
Next on the list is Zach Edey from Purdue and Oso Ighodaro a senior from Marquette, Donovan Clingan sophmore from Uconn, and Yves Missi freshman from Baylor. Ighodaro might be more of a big 4 then 5, kinda the same with Filipowski. Edey and Clingan are both big dudes.
Missi probably has the most upside but is very raw, and i'd rather avoid the raw talent 7' guy. Could he turn into Jarrett Allen, maybe, but i think more often than not they don't.
Kel'el Ware from Indiana is a similar prospect as Missi, in that he's very athletic but a bit raw. He has an offensive game that could realistically get better in the NBA though, but the knock on him is a 7' 210 he often plays smaller than he is and lets people push him around.
There's some international guys as well that would be available with our pick. Bobi Klintman and Izan Almansa. Both are tall skinny forwards more so than 5's.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 11:52 am to TeddyPadillac
Yea Edey is a JV type of player, more strength and post up game while not g being a rim protector or mobile defensively
Don’t see how he makes sense for us
Fillipowski has more shooting range and mobility than the JV/Edey types, but still not that high an upside guy
Clingan has been hurt but he’s a LEGIT rim protector. I think he’s a top 8 selection and we can’t get there without some serious maneuvering
Missi is talented but probably not an NBA rotation player right away on a good team
Idk anything about the Marquette big or the international guys. Maybe Trajan will work some magic
Don’t see how he makes sense for us
Fillipowski has more shooting range and mobility than the JV/Edey types, but still not that high an upside guy
Clingan has been hurt but he’s a LEGIT rim protector. I think he’s a top 8 selection and we can’t get there without some serious maneuvering
Missi is talented but probably not an NBA rotation player right away on a good team
Idk anything about the Marquette big or the international guys. Maybe Trajan will work some magic
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