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re: Official Pelicans Free Agency Thread(Updated with transactions)

Posted on 7/21/14 at 12:52 pm to
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15176 posts
Posted on 7/21/14 at 12:52 pm to
I just pulled up his career stats. When you're talking about 3PA, the only fair way to assess that is to compare per36. He had 4.98 3PA/36 last year. His career average is 5.16.

Each Year
3PA/36 3P%
4.30 .467
5.42 .456
5.06 .423
6.27 .371
4.61 .395
2.25 .200
4.98 .451

I see nothing in that data that makes me think Monty erred greatly in utilizing Morrow. If you take out 2011-2012 in NJ when he shot on .371, his average is 4.94 3PA/36 at a 44% clip for the rest of his career.
This post was edited on 7/21/14 at 12:57 pm
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61480 posts
Posted on 7/21/14 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

Baxter Holmes @BaxterHolmes 3 minutes ago

As reported, Celtics and FA Evan Turner reach agreement. Celtics will use part of their mid-level exception to add him.
Posted by whoknows1390
nola
Member since Jul 2014
1672 posts
Posted on 7/21/14 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

quote:
Baxter Holmes @BaxterHolmes 3 minutes ago

As reported, Celtics and FA Evan Turner reach agreement. Celtics will use part of their mid-level exception to add him.


who the hell is going to shoot the ball on that team??
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/21/14 at 5:48 pm to
My bad.

quote:

When you're talking about 3PA, the only fair way to assess that is to compare per36.


Fair enough. I was looking on B-R and they have a 3PAr that gives you the % of shots that were 3s. Lies and statistics and such.

As Homer J Simpson once said

quote:

Aw, you can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that.


quote:

Monty erred greatly in utilizing Morrow


I don't think it's erring greatly- for me it's just not being as efficient as possible. The offense, all things considered, was good last year. I think it can be better if they shake things a bit from downtown.

Not saying they should be Houston, but they have and had the talent to make the 3 a more frequent threat. Do that and things look much better as you approach the paint with Gordon, Evans, Davis, etc. Of course some of that comes from not playing multiple lane cloggers too.
This post was edited on 7/21/14 at 5:50 pm
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/21/14 at 6:45 pm to
This is going here because no where else to put it.

This is awesome and ridiculous and that it can be reality is one of the things I love about the NBA.

Russell Westbrook Collection at Barney's

Heady, what you thinking? Elephant Print hat is looking sharp. That and the jacket =
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 7:29 am to
quote:

Galactic Inquisitor


This article was posted on Nylon Calculus the other day. Interesting thoughts in light of what we've been discussing.

Introducing TeamSpace

quote:

In animal movement theories, a Hunting Ground is an area a predator regularly visits find prey. Applied to principals of law enforcement and crime analysis, a Hunting Ground is an area a serial criminal attacks victims in a regular, patterned, and predictable manner.

Applying notions of unique decision-making processes and rational choice theory, the concept of a Hunting Ground directly applies to the way a basketball player “hunts” for scoring opportunities. The areas on the court an individual regularly visits (either by personal choice, coaching discretion, or the guidance of teammates) are typically driven by the likelihood of success. The extremes are easy to identify: Andre Drummond scores exclusively in the paint, James Harden attacks from the top of the arc, and Al Jefferson is deadly from the left block. The point is this — all players have preferred areas they will consistently (and predictably) attempt shots from; the clusters of continued successes over the course of a game, season, and career become their Hunting Grounds.

To extend the metaphor a bit further, animals, criminals, and basketball players all operate relative to their counterparts. Every lion cannot attack the same watering hole; each bank robber cannot rob the same branch in Times Square; every player cannot exclusively shoot corner 3-pointers. Each is bounded by its associates, either other predators, offenders, or teammates. Thus, their activity space is shared, and the Hunting Grounds of fellow teammates specifically address floor spacing and lineup continuity issues.


quote:

Further, each group seeks to avoid countermeasures from adversaries. These opponents include hunters, law enforcement, and the other team’s defense.

Unique to basketball, however, is the notion of a fixed spatial dimension. Lions and bank robbers can self-organize across terrain and cities; each is able to operate in naturally defined activity space. Conversely, a five-player lineup is bounded by the court. As such, the distinct space a player occupies for scoring opportunities should theoretically be as unique as possible, minimizing overlap with teammates.


quote:

So what? The point is this — if we render the Hunting Grounds for a given lineup on the court at the same time, a successful team should exhibit little-to-no overlap; a rainbow of unique color across the court (the past two San Antonio Spurs teams come to mind). Less successful teams/lineups should experience chronic overlap and/or a general lack of activity; anecdotally this is the 2013-2014 Detroit Pistons (The Josh Smith Experience).


Neat idea. He only has two Hunting Grounds right now, but they are fairly informative.







Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15176 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 7:56 am to
I'd be interested in seeing those charts for the Pelicans. I can see where it would hold some merit.
Posted by Mack
Member since Nov 2013
827 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 8:52 am to
My mind is just blown at the depth of analysis here. It's rocket science on steroids. So much complexity.
Posted by VOR
Member since Apr 2009
63486 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 8:55 am to
corndeaux is a wizard.

or a stats geek, depending on your point of view.

Posted by Mack
Member since Nov 2013
827 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 9:00 am to
Posted by lsutothetop
TigerDroppings Elite
Member since Jul 2008
11323 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 9:08 am to
Great concept, and one reason why I don't mind the Salmons signing. Go look at the shot charts for our core 6 and you'll see a noticeable gap at the left corner 3.

Salmons prefers the right corner 3 to the left corner 3, but shoots the left corner 3 better than anyone in our core 6. He should be able to help us space pretty well in the 15-20 minutes a game he gives us.
Posted by HickfawJim1
Member since Sep 2013
438 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

Marc Stein ?@ESPNSteinLine

Cavs know it'll cost Wiggins/Bennett/future first to get Love. If Wolves insist on moving Kevin Martin with Love, more pieces must be added
Posted by HickfawJim1
Member since Sep 2013
438 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 5:57 pm to
quote:

Adrian Wojnarowski ?@WojYahooNBA

Utah's trading John Lucas, Malcolm Thomas and Erik Murphy to Cleveland for Carrick Felix, future 2nd and $1M, sources tell Yahoo.


quote:

Adrian Wojnarowski ?@WojYahooNBA

In Murphy, Lucas and Thomas, Cavs get three non-guaranteed contracts to facilitate trades -- or a trade. Another step toward Kevin Love.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
32441 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 6:35 pm to
Their combined contract values are 3.36m, so if Bennett and Wiggins combined salaries weren't enough to work a trade with Love, they definitely are now.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 9:46 pm to
More from Nylon Calculus. This is on Rim Protection

quote:

Rim Protection” is essentially point prevention. By stopping an opposing offense from scoring, either by dissuading players from shooting near the basket all together or simply forcing more misses than would otherwise be the case, these intimidators are providing value by “saving” points.


quote:

n simplest terms, any defensive impact a player makes on a game could be measurable in terms of points. More specifically, points prevented; how many points would the opposition have scored without the presence of the player we are looking to evaluate. SportVU’s “Defensive Impact” stats provides important data for just this measurement. Given that SportVU tells us both the number of “rim attempts” (as defined by shots form 5 feet or less) the player has contested, as well as the resulting FG% on those attempts, we can begin to estimate the impact.

Expressed logically, it’s simply

(Expected Points – Actual Points).


LINK

There is also a link to the data for all players last season with an explanation of the categories they use. Stiemsma rates as the best Pelicans rim protector last year while Davis rates fairly low (with guys like Love, Lee, Monroe, Bonner and Dirk) in this metric. Gerg being that good is somewhat surprising, Davis coming in that low isn't . It's scheme and awareness that prevent him from hanging around the paint and causing maximum damage. No one in their right mind think RoLo is a better rim protector than Davis but he is afforded the opportunity to use his skills more than Davis is.

LINK
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15176 posts
Posted on 7/22/14 at 10:50 pm to
quote:

No one in their right mind think RoLo is a better rim protector than Davis but he is afforded the opportunity to use his skills more than Davis is.


Honestly, it could probably be argued that he is, but that's no knock on Davis. I'd say that's one of the strongest parts of Rolo's game, but god forbid he step out defensively. Davis has a sick defensive game based on length more than strength. He erases a lot of mistakes in a way that most of the rim protectors cannot.

I think we just need to recognize how narrow of a definition of rim protection they are using here.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/23/14 at 7:21 am to
quote:

Honestly, it could probably be argued that he is, but that's no knock on Davis. I'd say that's one of the strongest parts of Rolo's game, but god forbid he step out defensively.


I don't think I would argue that, but that's pretty much spot on. RoLo isn't Asik but he isn't Stiemsma either.

quote:

Davis has a sick defensive game based on length more than strength. He erases a lot of mistakes in a way that most of the rim protectors cannot.


Yep. And he's still learning so much. Scary how much better he will be when he learns angles and close outs and tendencies and fully understands the scheme and so on.

quote:

I think we just need to recognize how narrow of a definition of rim protection they are using here


Yep. Nothing wrong with the narrow definition, but it is important to understand it's a small slice of the defensive pie. Still so much to figure out when it comes to that side of the court.

It is fascinating to see just how dominant Hibbert is in this breakdown.
Posted by HickfawJim1
Member since Sep 2013
438 posts
Posted on 7/23/14 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

Marc Stein ?@ESPNSteinLine

Barring an unforseen snag, Mavs on course to land Jameer Nelson to fortify their backcourt on a deal via Dallas' $2.7 million room exception.
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49507 posts
Posted on 7/23/14 at 4:13 pm to
As expected:
quote:

Marc Stein ?@ESPNSteinLine 52s
New Orleans, as expected, has released newly acquired forward Omri Casspi, who will find new team in free agency if he clears waivers
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
95311 posts
Posted on 7/23/14 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

Marc Stein ?@ESPNSteinLine

Barring an unforseen snag, Mavs on course to land Jameer Nelson to fortify their backcourt on a deal via Dallas' $2.7 million room exception.


Snag hit - Nelson failed a physical because he needs knee surgery. His contract was voided and he was waived by the Mavs.
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