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re: Massive ESPN article on analytics - Pelicans segment
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:03 am to TigerinATL
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:03 am to TigerinATL
quote:
what AD was going to be
Absolutely. I don't know that many people thought he would ever be this good offensively. If so, then certainly not this soon. If you think Davis is going to need time on offense, it makes sense to find scorers to help him.
quote:
Unfortunately, now that you have a clear picture of AD, you lack flexibility to make moves, especially if Holiday's injury is serious long term.
Agree 100%. But shite happens. Davis still seems happy. Just wish they could stay healthy to see what they really have
Posted on 2/25/15 at 1:52 pm to corndeaux
quote:I obvisouly have no idea what Benson pays guys who aren't in the spotlight, but from the guys we can track, he's been willing to spend big. The Saints have had one of the highest payrolls in the league for a while now. Just in the past few years they've given out the biggest contracts of all time(at that time) for at least 4 positions(G,TE,QB,S) that I can remember. And Sean Payton's extension made him the highest paid coach ever(at the time). A deal he got while he was sitting at home suspended.
I hope that will change with the new tv money coming in.
I don't think there's any doubt the Saints are priority number 1. But its hard to believe there would be that much of a disparity between the two teams. Especially considering some of the contracts they've allowed Demps to add in the past few years. Tyreke, Jrue, paying Asik almost twice his cap hit. So why pay big out front and be cheap behind the scenes?
This post was edited on 2/25/15 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 2/25/15 at 3:57 pm to eyeran
quote:
So why pay big out front and be cheap behind the scenes?
Not about them being cheap or miserly outliers. Because Benson isn't. Like whoknows and Alamar said, the salaries aren't comparable to other fields.
Quail has a theory
quote:
i have a feeling it has nothing to do with money and more with them not desiring to make it a key part of the organization quite yet.
The relevant question would be what do the Saints budget for analytics? Loomis talking about the video stuff they are using sounds awfully similar to Synergy. Granted football is behind basketball in terms of analytics, but that's not exactly cutting edge.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 6:06 pm to corndeaux
quote:It certainly makes them for from skeptics though, imo, especially on the football side where the article itself says nobody in the nfl is all in on analytics
The relevant question would be what do the Saints budget for analytics? Loomis talking about the video stuff they are using sounds awfully similar to Synergy. Granted football is behind basketball in terms of analytics, but that's not exactly cutting edge.
There's no doubt they aren't Philly when it comes to analytics. However, I just don't believe a group who secretly thinks the game like Charles Barkley would be so quick to point out to the world that they don't
I believe there can be a happy medium between what Philly is trying and where somebody like Barkley lives.
Posted on 2/25/15 at 9:47 pm to eyeran
quote:
I just don't believe a group who secretly thinks the game like Charles Barkley would be so quick to point out to the world that they don't
No one is saying they are Barkley. Barkley is a clown. He is very entertaining, but a clown nonetheless. He couldn't be more wrong or mindless on this "debate" anyway.
It's not about being an analytics fetishist. It's about arming yourself with as much information (that also includes scouting, interviews, and other "old school" means) as possible to make a decision.
Like I said earlier it's about actualizing your vision, whatever it may be, for success. An incurious approach to achieving that goal is reprehensible to me. Why wouldn't you want to exhaust every available avenue before making a decision that will effect that goal?
Posted on 2/25/15 at 10:05 pm to corndeaux
quote:Absolutely.
Why wouldn't you want to exhaust every available avenue before making a decision that will effect that goal?
But, do we know that they don't? Is it possible they collect all the data, but still make some decisions that don't look good in Pelton's computer?
They wouldnt be the only ones. Hinkie's got the luxury of zero expectations of winning. So right now he's 1000% all in. However, even known hard core stat guys have gone against their own philosophies when they're actually trying to win games. Morey brought Josh Smith. Hollinger traded for Jeff Green after ripping him a new one a few years ago when he was writing about this stuff and not actually doing it for real.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 6:21 am to eyeran
I don't even get what you're trying to do here. You believe they are cutting edge, great. I see no evidence of that. That doesn't mean they're dumb or not trying their best to win.
And you have no clue why Houston went after Smith or if it was a compromise of philosophy. Why don't you tell me how many long 2s he's taking in Houston? How many 3s?
And you have no clue why Houston went after Smith or if it was a compromise of philosophy. Why don't you tell me how many long 2s he's taking in Houston? How many 3s?
Posted on 2/26/15 at 8:02 am to eyeran
quote:
There's no doubt they aren't Philly when it comes to analytics
So, the most analytical team in the NBA is an abomination of a franchise? That's what I'm getting out of this.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 9:35 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
So, the most analytical team in the NBA is an abomination of a franchise? That's what I'm getting out of this.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 9:39 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
So, the most analytical team in the NBA is an abomination of a franchise? That's what I'm getting out of this.
I.... upvoted....
Posted on 2/26/15 at 9:40 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
So, the most analytical team in the NBA is an abomination of a franchise? That's what I'm getting out of this.
Sir Charles, is that you?
Posted on 2/26/15 at 9:51 am to corndeaux
quote:
Sir Charles, is that you?
I wish. I think there is some value in analytics, but it is just not as important as its biggest proponents claim. I think the SportVU stuff is way more valuable than the advanced stats bullshite that has permeated for years. They ignore system, surrounding talent, fit, luck (opponent hitting tons of contested shots), etc. That's what Monty was getting at.
My biggest problem is that some of the proponents of analytics tend to discredit old-school, subjective scouting, which will always be important.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 10:12 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
I think the SportVU stuff is way more valuable than the advanced stats bullshite that has permeated for years
I agree. Advanced stats are usually just box score stats done on a per possession or per minute basis. Tracking data is a whole new ballgame.
I don't know about bullshite, but there is nothing revolutionary about ORating (Dean Smith wrote about it in the 50s) or DREB %. It's just a more objective way of understanding the box score. And like anything else, there is no absolute number. Everything has a catch.
quote:
They ignore system, surrounding talent, fit, luck
I agree. Numbers are just numbers. What questions you ask about them and how you interpret them are much more important than anything else. +/- is always problematic in this way.
quote:
My biggest problem is that some of the proponents of analytics tend to discredit old-school, subjective scouting, which will always be important.
This is the only thing I disagree with. There are outliers, just like Barkley on the opposite side, but the vast majority agree there needs to be a marriage of the 2. The Rockets haven't replaced scouts with computers. The Sixers might have more coaches than any other team in the league.
Use the scouts, use the data, weigh what they both tell you and then make the best decision you can
Posted on 2/26/15 at 4:01 pm to corndeaux
quote:You have no problem making those same assumptions about what the Pelicans do, though. I know the guys you seem to worship, and their stats, hated Smith before he got to Houston.
And you have no clue why Houston went after Smith or if it was a compromise of philosophy. Why don't you tell me how many long 2s he's taking in Houston? How many 3s?
This post was edited on 2/26/15 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 2/26/15 at 4:10 pm to eyeran
Probably more than the advanced stats guys hated the Holiday trade.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 4:17 pm to eyeran
quote:
You have no problem making those same assumptions about what the Pelicans do, though
From earlier in this thread
quote:
Really, I just want to see a plan, a Pelicans Way. The Sixers are cultish with their devotion to data, the Bulls have been wildly successful using "grit" to find capable players from the lower rungs of the draft. Whatever it is, define your vision for basketball success. Then exhaust every avenue possible to achieve that success.
Maybe I'm missing it but, from my cheap seat, I haven't seen that vision in 4+ years. That, to me, is a problem.
quote:
I know the guys you seem to worship,
Not sure what your problem is. Everyone sees the game a certain way. I'm not that impressed with what Monty/Demps have done over their tenure. You like what they've done more. Congrats. We'll agree to disagree. There's nothing wrong with that.
quote:
their stats, hated Smith before he got to Houston.
Nope. Before he got to Detroit, their stats rated Smith as a pretty good NBA player. And it is utterly laughable to believe that John Hollinger sits in his office in Memphis evaluating players using an imperfect stat he created a decade ago that anyone with an internet connection can use.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 4:25 pm to corndeaux
quote:
And it is utterly laughable to believe that John Hollinger sits in his office in Memphis evaluating players using an imperfect stat he created a decade ago that anyone with an internet connection can use.
I think teams probably have a little more balance in their approach than writers. For writers the numbers are the product. It takes a lot of work to convey the eye test, watching games, creating gifs or screen caps with illustration. The numbers are much easier to access and discuss.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 4:26 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Probably more than the advanced stats guys hated the Holiday trade.
Just about everyone thought it was a gamble. It was just so very different than accepted wisdom, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
I didn't then and still don't think it was an awful move. What has always bothered me was the subsequent Evans move. To me, you either get one or the other, but not both. And especially not if you can't unload Gordon.
Posted on 2/26/15 at 4:28 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
think teams probably have a little more balance in their approach than writers. For writers the numbers are the product. It takes a lot of work to convey the eye test, watching games, creating gifs or screen caps with illustration. The numbers are much easier to access and discuss.
Absolutely. It's always about blending scouts and numbers and going with what you believe will work best. Numbers, advanced or otherwise, need context.
Howard Beck's roundtable on this was very good
This post was edited on 2/26/15 at 4:29 pm
Posted on 2/28/15 at 4:56 pm to TigerinATL
ATL, this from Payton at Sloan is a great sign re the injury prevention analytics.
LINK
quote:
One of the most relevant and immediate uses for new player-tracking data is during practices. The NFL rolled out a new "real-time" player tracking initiative in 2014, borrowing the same type of technology used by businesses to track assets with radio-frequency tags.
So now if one receiver runs twice as much as the others in his group, Payton knows about it after practice.
"This guy is doing more in practice than his peers: Let's make sure we're not dealing with a hamstring injury in a few days," Payton said of the technology. "It has an immediate impact on players."
Payton even said that offensive linemen would walk in circles to get their GPS readers to register more mileage.
Payton said coaches will be able to use the data from last year to adjust practices in 2015.
"It will shape us with how we practice in May and more important in training camp and in season," he said. "We can point to work load and how it relates to injuries. It will shape our calendar."
LINK
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