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re: 3rd Quarter Malaise: Reality or Myth?
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:50 pm to GynoSandberg
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:50 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
But if you lose leads in say 5 games a season, isn't that too much?
Context. You're not going to win every quarter. The only score that matters is the final score. I don't enjoy losses any more than you do, but LVB's assertion was just ridiculous on several levels, hence my factual response.
quote:
Anyway, losing is losing. It's not like losing 20 point games to bad Laker and Magic teams this season is any better than "only" losing halftime leads twice in 10 games.
I agree with this. That said, we're 4-6. We were without Anderson and Evans was slow to get back into shape. I'm not ready to jump off any bridges.
2
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:55 pm to JimmyLoincloth
quote:
LVB
We man need to join forces to eradicate this villain, mate.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:57 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
if you lose leads in say 5 games a season, isn't that too much?
It's not just losing leads, it's how they are lost. Over the last few years this team could go for 10 minute stretches where they have more turnovers than made field goals. Not scoring and turning the ball over puts you on your heels on defense. In theory Ryno and Tyreke leading the bench unit should help address these scoring luls and improve the defense as well. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 12:59 pm to JimmyLoincloth
Corndeaux:
I looked at this before, and I will dig in again. One thing I checked was correlation, game by game, of scoring differential by quarter and game outcome. The second quarter was very important that year. I think it was a reflection of the thinness of the team.
But, myth is my guess.
We can check conditional correlations, but if you chop things up too fine, you lose the signal.
Also, this board is filled with people who
- complain but fail to provide any analysis themselves
- argue tactically (like a sophist) but can't actually connect data to prediction that is in fact validated in the future
- simply tear down others without being about to make their own contributions
- engage in personal attacks, distraction techniques, operate under intentional misreadings or exaggerations
It gets old, and it frustrates me. Try not to let them frustrate you.
Same for all you other good, fun posters.
I looked at this before, and I will dig in again. One thing I checked was correlation, game by game, of scoring differential by quarter and game outcome. The second quarter was very important that year. I think it was a reflection of the thinness of the team.
But, myth is my guess.
We can check conditional correlations, but if you chop things up too fine, you lose the signal.
Also, this board is filled with people who
- complain but fail to provide any analysis themselves
- argue tactically (like a sophist) but can't actually connect data to prediction that is in fact validated in the future
- simply tear down others without being about to make their own contributions
- engage in personal attacks, distraction techniques, operate under intentional misreadings or exaggerations
It gets old, and it frustrates me. Try not to let them frustrate you.
Same for all you other good, fun posters.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:01 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
It's not just losing leads, it's how they are lost. Over the last few years this team could go for 10 minute stretches where they have more turnovers than made field goals. Not scoring and turning the ball over puts you on your heels on defense. In theory Ryno and Tyreke leading the bench unit should help address these scoring luls and improve the defense as well. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks.
Yes.
The scoring droughts with bad defense happens often.
People remember leads slipping and notice less when it happens when they have already written off the game.
The manufactured idea of a game they 'should' win causes issues... Punishments for others not living up to 'our' expectations can be severe.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:14 pm to 42
quote:
I looked at this before, and I will dig in again. One thing I checked was correlation, game by game, of scoring differential by quarter and game outcome. The second quarter was very important that year. I think it was a reflection of the thinness of the team.
But, myth is my guess.
We can check conditional correlations, but if you chop things up too fine, you lose the signal.
Good stuff. I'm not trying to flame anyone, just curious.
As for the board, we've got some great, knowledgeable posters here and a few trolls. shite happens and luckily the trolls are easy to spot. I'm always willing to talk hoops with anyone who is interested and especially if they disagree.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:20 pm to corndeaux
Instead of a new thread i'll just post this here:
I looked through some of the best teams in the league(not all, didn't have the time) and the only team with a starting unit, or unit that played the majority of the team's minutes, outscoring opponents by as much as the Pelicans were the Pacers. We're at 15.2, I believe the Pacers were at 15.3.
If Evans and Anderson can click on that 2nd unit...
quote:
The hope is that Anderson provides the needed offensive punch for the second unit and keeps New Orleans afloat after their starters go out. Even with Holiday's offensive issues, the starting five of Holiday, Gordon, the underrated Al-Farouq Aminu, Davis and Smith have outscored teams by over 15 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com's stats page. If Anderson's presence also gives New Orleans a new Evans that'll begin to terrorize second units, this'll be a tough team to deal with later in the year. Still, the rough play of Holiday and Evans is a concern, and frontcourt depth is a question given Stiemsma's injury. LINK
I looked through some of the best teams in the league(not all, didn't have the time) and the only team with a starting unit, or unit that played the majority of the team's minutes, outscoring opponents by as much as the Pelicans were the Pacers. We're at 15.2, I believe the Pacers were at 15.3.
If Evans and Anderson can click on that 2nd unit...
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:21 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
it's how they are lost. Over the last few years this team could go for 10 minute stretches where they have more turnovers than made field goals.
True. And it is maddening to watch. I don't know if you can totally eliminate the lulls but they should be curtailed with the roster on hand. It's totally correct to call that out, but I don't know if a blanket "We get out coached in the X quarter every year" is a fair assessment.
It ties into your link on the offense (lack of imagination/creativity) and Ziller's Hook from today on assists and offense. On offense, talent will win out over scheme. As much as we love some of the guys that play here, there hasn't been much talent the past couple years. Now that there is talent, we need to see those droughts reduced.
I have my doubts that Monty can accomplish that but he's had one game with his top 5 guys. Way too early to judge either way.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:25 pm to eyeran
quote:
Even with Holiday's offensive issues, the starting five of Holiday, Gordon, the underrated Al-Farouq Aminu, Davis and Smith have outscored teams by over 15 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com's stats page.
Damn. Haven't looked at those numbers in a week or so, but that's insane. And if I remember correctly, the 4 man bench unit of Roberts/Morrow/Evans/Steimsma had a very solid margin as well.
Aminu, for all the shite he catches and for at times looking clueless, actually has had one the best net ratings on the roster the past 2 years.
#freealfarouq?
Great link- Prada is excellent.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 1:50 pm to corndeaux
aminu is worst starter in western conf
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:04 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
In theory Ryno and Tyreke leading the bench unit should help address these scoring luls and improve the defense as well. We'll see what happens in the next few weeks.
I'm hoping Ryno is the remedy. It seemed that we had been losing serious momentum when the second unit took over. Roberts is streaky. Reke was struggling with the lack of spacing. With Ryno back, Roberts will reduce his shots and should get better shots. Tyreke will definitely be helped out by the spacing, but his explosiveness seems to be returning, too. He just looked sluggish for a while.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:06 pm to eyeran
quote:
the underrated Al-Farouq Aminu
I didn't write that for the record.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:10 pm to LasVegasBandit
quote:
aminu is worst starter in western conf
No. He's not even the worst starting 3 in the conference. Or the division.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:10 pm to JimmyLoincloth
This entire thread is frustrating
This post was edited on 11/19/13 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:11 pm to LasVegasBandit
quote:
aminu is worst starter in western conf
Except that he's not.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:12 pm to LasVegasBandit
quote:
This entire thread is frustrating
You can't blame anyone else for you being wrong.
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:13 pm to JimmyLoincloth
I'm not wrong we've been horrendous in 3rd quarter since BS was coach and Aminu is terrible.
This post was edited on 11/19/13 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:16 pm to LasVegasBandit
Why do you refuse to admit you were wrong?
"Except for those times I wasn't right, I'm always right."
"Except for those times I wasn't right, I'm always right."
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:20 pm to TotesMcGotes
What was I wrong about?
Posted on 11/19/13 at 2:25 pm to LasVegasBandit
quote:
What was I wrong about?
It would be much easier to list things you've been right about.
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