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re: Which teams have a legit shot at the college football playoff national title?

Posted on 7/28/16 at 8:43 am to
Posted by 12Pence
Member since Jan 2013
6344 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 8:43 am to
quote:

Ole Miss plays well here


Theyve won 5 times at lsu in 45 years.


2008
2001
1999
1997
1990

Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Cameron apparently wants to put Spread concepts into the offense which, I don't think he's comfortable with implementing.


Not really. They have said they are just using our current offense and practicing the passing a WHOLE lot more so Brandon is more comfortable throwing it and looks to checkdown, high percentage throws more.

So this part is completely not true.


quote:

Harris has GOT to step up his performance as a player and field general.


I'm confident he will improve greatly. Its very rare for an underclassman who is starting for the first time to perform at a high level in the SEC. He is now a junior with a full year of starting experience and a bunch of experienced guys around him.

Brandon Harris (sophomore):
Year 1 - 149/277 - 53.8% - 2165 yards - 7.8 y/a - 13 TDs - 6 INTs - 130.6 QBR

Year 2 - ??????? TBD ???????

Dak Prescott (redshirt sophomore):
Year 1 - 156/267 - 58.4% - 1940 yards - 7.3 y/a - 10 TDs - 7 INTs - 126.6 QBR

Year 2 - 244/396 - 61.6% - 3449 yards - 8.7 y/a - 27 TDs - 11 INTs - 151.7 QBR

Zach Mettenberger (redshirt junior):
Year 1 - 207/352 - 58.8% - 2609 yards - 7.4 y/a – 12 TDs – 7 INTs - 128.3 QBR

Year 2 - 192/296 - 64.9% - 3082 yards - 10.4 y/a - 22 TDs - 8 INTs - 171.4 QBR

Jamarcus Russell (sophomore):
Year 1 - 188/311 - 60.5% - 2443 yards - 7.9 y/a – 15 TDs – 9 INTs - 136.6 QBR

Year 2 - 232/342 - 67.8% - 3129 yards - 9.1 y/a - 28 TDs - 8 INTs - 167.0 QBR

quote:

Defense is also a question mark given that it's a new system and will take time to get right. I


If you're worried about our defense, I don't know what to tell you. We are absolutely stacked at DB, added a lot of depth at DL, and have a potential all-american at MLB flanked by Arden Key.

Dave Aranda has had a defense highly ranked nationally every where he's been, even in his first year after inheriting not so good defenses.

quote:

I'm projecting losses to Wisky, Ole Miss, and Bama. Florida as a possible loss as well



Ole Miss at home, coming off a loss last year, they lost 3 first rounders and a bunch of core defensive players, and have an NCAA sanciton looming over there heads.

Why do you think they beat us? Objectively. We have home field, more talent, and more experience.

And then Wisconsin? Other than home field which isn't in Madison and will probably be 40% LSU fans, why would they beat us?

They lost their elite DC (to us LOL), they are replacing their QB, their 2 best LBs, and their entire secondary. We have far more talent and far more experience. Objectively, why do they beat us?
This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 8:52 am
Posted by NoNameTiger
Mandeville, LA
Member since Nov 2015
2054 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 8:51 am to
quote:

If we don't win the west AND beat Bama then Les should go



Dude, come on. Anyone who thinks Les should go if we win the west (no matter what happens against Bama) is an idiot.

Yes I'd love to see the Tigers beat Bama so bad Saban quits at halftime. But I'd trade a loss to Bama every year if it means we play in Atlanta with a shot at the SEC title and playoff.

It's about championships.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 8:52 am to
Read that post you quoted again.
Posted by NoNameTiger
Mandeville, LA
Member since Nov 2015
2054 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:00 am to
quote:

quote:
They think Miles is the only thing holding lsu back from having a run like Saban is having at bama


Well, what's the reason?


Saban being at Bama.
Posted by Forkbeard3777
Chicago
Member since Apr 2013
3841 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:00 am to
quote:



If you're worried about our defense, I don't know what to tell you. We are absolutely stacked at DB, added a lot of depth at DL, and have a potential all-american at MLB flanked by Arden Key.


Ehh. LSU got pushed around pretty easy in their 3 losses. LSU doesn't have the quality defensive line players that they used to have in my opinion.

I don't see LSU losing to Wisconsin. Realistically, they should beat Wisconsin by 14+.

Ole Miss, for the most part, always seems to play LSU tough. Ole Miss has pay...I mean recruited well. They've got talent and the best QB in the SEC. Alabama will obviously be difficult. The road games against Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M will be difficult. LSU should be favored in all, but still, those aren't easy places to win. Those teams have a lot of talent as well.

This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 9:05 am
Posted by NoNameTiger
Mandeville, LA
Member since Nov 2015
2054 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:03 am to
quote:

Read that post you quoted again.


Maybe you should. My post still stands.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:03 am to
quote:



Ehh. LSU got pushed around pretty easy in their 3 losses. LSU doesn't have the quality defensive line players that they used to have in my opinion.




While I agree on that from last year, we have completely switched to a 3-4 which puts 3 heavier, lower center of gravity guys on the line and puts the lighter guys at LB. Our DL average weight went up 30 lbs.

Also, we added a couple talented 300 pounders for depth (and possibly a 340 LBer) and another 260 lb MLB.


ETA:

Also, we DID NOT get pushed around by Ole Miss. We played our worst game of the year (yes, even Bama). We had incredibly costly penalties and turnovers and Brandon Harris was abysmal in that game.

Chad Kelly was their leading rusher. That game wasn't lost on the lines or from being out-done physically like Arky and Bama.
This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 9:08 am
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:03 am to
quote:

With Les at the helm, I can easily see this team falling way short of expectations. I think 10-2 is the ceiling for this team.

That said, LSU will NOT lose to Wiaconsin.


I can definitely see a two loss season or even four. My main problems with LSU is that everyone is expecting way too much from Aranda in year one. Also, I'm curious if the OL will gel together properly or will it be a clusterfrick in November like last season and the season before that.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:05 am to
quote:



Maybe you should. My post still stands.


It just makes no sense


He said:

quote:

If we don't win the west AND beat Bama then Les should go



followed by this from you:

quote:

Dude, come on. Anyone who thinks Les should go if we win the west (no matter what happens against Bama) is an idiot.


Makes no sense. But I see what you mean, just sounded funny at first.

Moving on...
This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 9:11 am
Posted by NoNameTiger
Mandeville, LA
Member since Nov 2015
2054 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:14 am to
quote:

quote:


Maybe you should. My post still stands.


It just makes no sense


He said:

quote:
If we don't win the west AND beat Bama then Les should go



followed by this from you:

quote:
Dude, come on. Anyone who thinks Les should go if we win the west (no matter what happens against Bama) is an idiot.


Makes no sense. But I see what you mean, just sounded funny at first


I still do t see the problem.

He basically said if we win the west but still lose to Bama, Les should be fired.

I said if we win the west, the outcome of the Bama game is irrelevant.
Posted by Forkbeard3777
Chicago
Member since Apr 2013
3841 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:15 am to
quote:



While I agree on that from last year, we have completely switched to a 3-4 which puts 3 heavier, lower center of gravity guys on the line and puts the lighter guys at LB. Our DL average weight went up 30 lbs.

Also, we added a couple talented 300 pounders for depth (and possibly a 340 LBer) and another 260 lb MLB.


Yeah, I remember Aranda running the 3-4 at Wisconsin. Look, LSU got a real good one. I can't deny that. Wisconsin, while a proud and rich program, isn't LSU in terms of talent. Wisconsin's defense was overlooked by their big offensive line and running game.

The only thing I would be concerned with is the potential growing pains from the transitioning to a 4-3 to 3-4. Playing Wisconsin, (Dan Mullen led) Miss. State, and (Malzahn led) Auburn in your first four games doesn't give you a lot of cushioning to get the kinks out.

Back to Aranda, I'm sure the LSU fans remember the Wisconsin defense well from the last meeting. Say what you want, but their defense pretty much crushed LSU. I don't believe LSU had more than 20 yards rushing in the first half. They just didn't have the talent to matchup with some of LSU's bigger wide receivers. Also, their inability to get a first down late in the second half didn't help either.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84753 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:17 am to
quote:

LSU has the second most players in the NFL. How do they continue to have disappointing seasons? I just don't get it, and I put it on Les. i know he is partly responsible for that incredible talent, but would it hurt to win some more games with those players?


I think time will look kindly on Miles when the dust settles on his tenure at LSU. He has arguably the GOAT coach in his own division and an ex-LSU coach at that. Hell, Urban Meyer is also one of the greatest coaches in CFB history and he was also a permanent opponents for Miles.

If you look at what Miles has done in the proper context, it is nothing short of impressive.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:19 am to
quote:


Back to Aranda, I'm sure the LSU fans remember the Wisconsin defense well from the last meeting. Say what you want, but their defense pretty much crushed LSU. I don't believe LSU had more than 20 yards rushing in the first half. They just didn't have the talent to matchup with some of LSU's bigger wide receivers. Also, their inability to get a first down late in the second half didn't help either.


Agreed.

And Les has said that ever since he's had his eye on Aranda. Tried to reach out to his people when Chavis left but it didn't work out and this year he finally got his man.

We had 10x the talent they did and their defense shut us the frick down except for a few big passing plays won on talent matchups, and a couple big runs after our depth wore them down in the second half.


Posted by Forkbeard3777
Chicago
Member since Apr 2013
3841 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:19 am to
quote:


Also, we DID NOT get pushed around by Ole Miss. We played our worst game of the year (yes, even Bama). We had incredibly costly penalties and turnovers and Brandon Harris was abysmal in that game.

Chad Kelly was their leading rusher. That game wasn't lost on the lines or from being out-done physically like Arky and Bama.


Rushed for 150. Threw for 280. Scored 38 points. They were just better. Ole Miss was a damn good team last year. I don't know what happened in Memphis and at Florida, but they were a real good team. They straight up embarrassed Oklahoma State.
This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 9:20 am
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:25 am to
They lost the turnover battle against UF. The Memphis game still leaves me scratching my head.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:26 am to
quote:



Rushed for 150. Threw for 280. Scored 38 points. They were just better. Ole Miss was a damn good team last year. I don't know what happened in Memphis and at Florida, but they were a real good team. They straight up embarrassed Oklahoma State.



We DID NOT get pushed around on the line. That was my only point.

Brandon Harris had a QBR of 33.2 with 2 awful interceptions. Chad Kelly had 81 of those rushing yards. Their actual RBs had 71 yards rushing at like 3.7 YPC.

Also, our penalties were very costly. LF had a 50+ yard run called back on the opening play. We had 13 fricking penalties.

We actually outgained them 508 - 432. Out rushed and out passed them (yardage wise). Had more first downs and better 3rd down conversion % and less punts.

We did however lose the turnover battle 3-1 and the penalty battle BADLY.

Its a game we could've won had we not had those costly turnovers and penalties. They were at the worst possible times and we did not recover well from them.


ETA:

Also, I don't think we make all those mistakes at home this year, we are bringing back basically everyone, and they lost a bunch of guys, including 3 first rounders.

Reason I say that was our worst game last year is because they didn't just come out and beat our dicks in the dirt like Arky and Bama. We made a ton of mental mistakes and that hurts far, far worse to me.
This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 9:37 am
Posted by Forkbeard3777
Chicago
Member since Apr 2013
3841 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:41 am to
Did LSU get any pressure on Kelly? Any sacks? There are other ways to get dominated than by strictly rushing the ball. I mean, at one point, they were up 24-0. They diddled around and LSU got back into it and then they blew the doors off LSU again. I just remember watching a little after the Penn State game and being shocked.

My original point was that I don't believe (and I still don't) that LSU has the high quality defensive line talent as they once had. Now, that's a pretty freaking high bar to be set considering the talent they once had. LSU's line used to be similar to Alabama's. Sheer power and strength. Guys like Kyle Williams, Marcus Spears, Glen Dorsey, Tyson Jackson, Michael Brockers.

This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 9:43 am
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:48 am to
quote:

My original point was that


quote:

LSU got pushed around pretty easy in their 3 losses.


and I said that's not true. Because we absolutely did not, in any way, get pushed around by Ole Miss.

quote:

There are other ways to get dominated than by strictly rushing the ball.


Like passing the ball? Which we outgained them on too?

We lost on mental mistakes. Epic levels of mental mistakes. And that is part of the game and in the mental area, they absolutely dominated us. 100%. We played dumb and flat, they played smart and active.

But this wasn't a case of getting out done physically or even out gained in the box score.

When you win the yardage battle across the board and the 3rd down battle, its tough to reconcile that with losing that badly.

quote:

I mean, at one point, they were up 24-0.


It was the ugliest first half, penalty and turnover wise, in several years in an SEC West game for us.


ETA:
FWIW, each team had 1 sack. Ole Miss had 7 TFL and LSU had 5.



This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 9:51 am
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
46625 posts
Posted on 7/28/16 at 9:50 am to
quote:

With Les at the helm, I can easily see this team falling way short of expectations. I think 10-2 is the ceiling for this team.


Please explain how you can see the most successful coach in lsu history falling way short of expectations.
This post was edited on 7/28/16 at 10:02 am
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