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re: Strategies that football coaches should do but never do
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:33 pm to Jones
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:33 pm to Jones
quote:
Your previous scenario was 2 minutes left and its 4th down.
Let's say on a mathematical standpoint:
1. If you run it for 4th down and 1, you have a 67% chance of making the 1st down (NFL stats). By not going for it, you are deny yourself that 67% to win the game right there.
And that's not count the percent you're going to win by stopping them on defense or win in OT. Cummultively, that's a higher percent than being up 6 and depending on your defense.
1
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:34 pm to Jones
quote:In certain instances, it's certainly a lower expected value/decreases your odds of winning to opt for kicking a field goal.
Yea you always have multiple ways of winning but youre sitting here basically saying that putting more points on the board is a bad thing
This post was edited on 9/25/17 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:34 pm to sms151t
quote:
How many time outs does the defense have?
none
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:35 pm to PeteRose
Then you take a knee to end the game. No need to run anything and lose possession.
In Castor's situation though you are going to get a chance to rotate Lineman or DB if the offense subs anyone out, you can sub everyone if need be.
In Castor's situation though you are going to get a chance to rotate Lineman or DB if the offense subs anyone out, you can sub everyone if need be.
This post was edited on 9/25/17 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:36 pm to PeteRose
Oh I agree with the go for it mentality and just win the game there.
If I dont go for it and the other team is going to get the ball back, id rather be up 6 than 3.
If I dont go for it and the other team is going to get the ball back, id rather be up 6 than 3.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:36 pm to sms151t
Always take a knee if the other team. Can't stop the clock. Better to win than pour on style point
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:37 pm to sms151t
quote:
Then you take a knee to end the game. No need to run anything and lose possession.
well that's my point. Sometimes scoring is counterproductive at the end of the game. The other team can't score if it can't touch the ball.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:38 pm to PeteRose
Chark should have slid down in bounds instead of scoring with 2 mins left.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:40 pm to Jones
quote:
Oh I agree with the go for it mentality and just win the game there.
If I dont go for it and the other team is going to get the ball back, id rather be up 6 than 3.
Not about mentality. It's about optimal decision to win a game in such a situation. The math backs it up. The logic backs it up.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:43 pm to shel311
quote:
1. When down 15(there are other scenarios) in the 4th quarter, teams virtually always kick the extra point on the 1st TD so they can "guarantee" they're down 1 possession. Then they play the remainder of the 4th quarter like they're actually down 1 possession when there's a greater than 50% chance that they're down 2 possessions. Then, wouldn't you know it, they score/miss the 2 point conversion and are left down by 2 points with less than 1 minute left because the entire 4th quarter strategy was built around being down 1 possession. Whereas, if you go for 2 on the 1st TD, you know if you're down 1 or 2 possessions and can play the rest of your quarter accordingly. It's pretty simple stuff IMO, obtain the information as soon as possible.
Agree with you on this. Drives me crazy. The only rational argument I could see is "momentum" or something like that (i.e., you're more likely to convert the 2-point after the second TD than the first) but if anything, I think you're more likely to get it after the first because the D will be really buckling down on the attempt that actually would tie it.
I think it basically always applies when down by 15 (i.e., down 9 after the TD before the XP). You mention there are other scenarios, but you do have to be careful. ND was playing Clemson a couple of years ago and the score was 21-9 after a ND TD early in the fourth quarter. ND decided to go for two after that touchdown (probably so ND would gain the knowledge if it needed two more TDs or could settle for a FG before scoring another TD). ND didn't get the two. Clemson then went down and kicked a FG to make it 24-9. ND scored twice more. The first time they kicked the XP to make it 24-16 (when they SHOULD HAVE gone for two, as we're talking about now). ND then scored with less than 10 seconds left to make it 24-22 but missed the two to lose. If ND would have kicked the XP instead of going for that first two (when it was 21-9) the game would have went to OT.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:43 pm to PeteRose
Football really is not a metric based decision sport. There are a bunch of times you have to coach based on your feel. There is an art to calling a game. Some are masters some are bad at it.
I mean look at what happened to the Cowboys in mid to late 90's when they started metric drafting.
I mean look at what happened to the Cowboys in mid to late 90's when they started metric drafting.
This post was edited on 9/25/17 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:49 pm to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:I'm on the other side of that argument, but yes basically because of momentum. The other team plays tight on that next possession if it's a "one possession" game.
Agree with you on this. Drives me crazy. The only rational argument I could see is "momentum"
I don't think you're more likely to convert if you go for it after the second time; I just think how the other teams plays in the next series is affected if it's a "one possession game". Especially if it was a blowout at one point. People pucker up.
I'm a numbers guy, but I think watching games there's something that's gotta be said about that.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 12:56 pm to SirWinston
I don't know that you can rush into formation for a 2pt attempt. And that won't stun people again, so it might work one time. Also, it relies on you having a time out available, but most likely don't have at that point.
It would be fun to watch though.
It would be fun to watch though.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 1:00 pm to SirWinston
2 minute drill, 1st half: NFL offenses usually leave waaaayyyy too much time on the clock for the other team to turn around and score before half.
If you are on their 10 yard line with 1 min left in the first half, etc either bleed that clock or make the other team use their time-outs before you score. Keep the football out of the other NFL QB's hands.
The Packers are the absolute worst at this.
If you are on their 10 yard line with 1 min left in the first half, etc either bleed that clock or make the other team use their time-outs before you score. Keep the football out of the other NFL QB's hands.
The Packers are the absolute worst at this.
This post was edited on 9/25/17 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 9/25/17 at 1:01 pm to shel311
Especially in college - don't conserve timeouts so much at end of half. Seems like coaches get greedy and attempt to run one more play before calling hike. 9/10 it takes twice as long.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 1:01 pm to TexasTiger1185
If on 3rd down, you don't get the first down and it's less than 5 yards to go on 4th down, and some idiot from the defense is doing his celebration dance for the big run stop or sack or whatever, get to the line quickly and see if you can snap it with him offsides. If you can't get the offsides, take the penalty and punt, or hell, hurry up and run the punt team out. there should still be 20 something seconds left when you realize you aren't getting them offsides.
Really you should do this on any play where a defender acts like a moron celebrating on your side of the ball.
Really you should do this on any play where a defender acts like a moron celebrating on your side of the ball.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 1:22 pm to sms151t
quote:
Football really is not a metric based decision sport. There are a bunch of times you have to coach based on your feel. There is an art to calling a game. Some are masters some are bad at it.
Certain situations - like 2 point conversions - could be metric based if a coach would stick to the strategy. Over large sample sizes the numbers suggest it is a better strategy than kicking the PAT.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 1:32 pm to SirWinston
when you have 1 timeout left and the other team is getting ready to attempt a FG.
don't just automatically call a TO to ice the kicker. Once you burn it, the kicker KNOWS you are out of timeouts.
the threat of the TO could mess with their heads more
don't just automatically call a TO to ice the kicker. Once you burn it, the kicker KNOWS you are out of timeouts.
the threat of the TO could mess with their heads more
Posted on 9/25/17 at 1:34 pm to slackster
I agree in specific situations but generally it is not, where baseball is almost entirely metric driven.
Posted on 9/25/17 at 1:37 pm to SirWinston
Totally agree 
quote:I would just take a delay of game and back up 5 yards and attempt pat. Save your timeout.
If the defense calls your bluff and doesn't burn one of their timeouts, you can simply burn yours
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