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re: #SECBias is the easiest thing to debunk, ever
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:23 pm to ballscaster
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:23 pm to ballscaster
Computer Polls aren't biased...and the average of all computer polls has the SEC as the top conference...with five teams in top 10 (3 in top 4)...it's all good.
1
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:24 pm to ballscaster
quote:
Conference championships refer to but a fraction of one's season.
If by "fraction", you mean around 9/10, then yes, it is a fraction. Just a really, really big one. The average team plays 12 games: 8-9 conference games, 1 tough OOC game, and a bunch of cupcakes (some teams vary from this formula, but not by much). I throw out the cupcakes as irrelevant, so really, almost the entire resume of a team is what they did in conference.
With 5 conferences of similar quality, the only way a team should be included when failing to win their conference is if 2 conferences have fluke winners in their CCG or if the team has a truly excellent resume, particularly OOC. Mississippi St will clearly fail the second criteria, and the first is unlikely. State's OOC is pretty close to Baylor's, and their conference resume looks a lot weaker today than it did a month ago.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:27 pm to jg8623
quote:
Do you want the 4 best teams or 4 most deserving?
That doesnt have to be an either or question.
If you are picking teams for a playoff your criteria should be 2 fold:
1) Can the team I am putting forth beat the other teams and win? "Yes" is the only acceptable answer.
After picking teams (any number 2, 4 13, i dont care) you can move on to step 2 - which only kicks in if the number of teams you put forth is greater than number of playoff spots (in this case, 4)
2) Which of these teams have earned the right to play in the playoff?
Conference championship should ABSOLUTELY be part of that equation in #2. Winning your division as well. But it cannot be an automatic in or automatic dis-qualifier. 2011 showed us that. Fact is, nobody was even close to being as good or as deserving as Bama was to go in as #2. There simply isnt a rational argument against them other than this "well they didn't win their division" crap. So what. They lost to #1 in OT. Thats a lot better than losing to nobody state. I don't care where the game is played, home, away, the fricking moon.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:27 pm to Chicken
quote:
Computer Polls aren't biased...and the average of all computer polls has the SEC as the top conference...with five teams in top 10 (3 in top 4)...it's all good.
I agree with all of this and think that a larger number of polls than the BCS (15 or so with different weights and theories) would be a perfect way to do this.
The only caveat I would add is that ALL P5 teams MUST schedule only P5 teams.
This creates a bunch more data.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:28 pm to Buckeye06
quote:Of course they do. They also get "credit" for that stellar .385 spot that Marshall's opponents are putting up. See what I mean?
Let me ask this because you run these numbers a lot. If Marshall had been Miss. St's first game of the year, and Miss St won, do they get "credit" for Marshall's other 8 wins in their SOS calculation?
quote:Depends on what that SEC team's opponents do and how it compares to the MAC team's opponents.
Does SOS equate an 8-1 SEC team to an 8-1 MAC team on its face?
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:28 pm to Buckeye06
quote:
Obviously now it's easy to say that. Before the bowl games were played, LSU was better. They had a better resume and had already beaten Bama @ Bama.
The question at hand was who was better than Bama to deserve to go to the National Title game against LSU. LSU was already in.
Logic fail, kid.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:28 pm to jcole4lsu
quote:
the fricking moon.
Now you might be on to something.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:29 pm to Baloo
quote:Then your argument is dismissed.
I throw out the cupcakes as irrelevant
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:31 pm to Scruffy
quote:fify
The only places that supported it was Alabama and ESPN.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:33 pm to ballscaster
So you think they are relevant? You think you can determine quality of a team because Team A beat a FCS team by 38 points and Team B beat a MAC team by 21? I mean, who gives a crap either way? Both games were layups and near automatic wins.
How bad you beat a bunch of teams outside the Power 5 is absolutely irrelevant to determining the top 4 teams in the nation. I'm not talking about Wake Forest, I'm talking about teams outside the Power 5 conferences (the occasional Boise excepted). Those games are auto-wins for any team with even the barest aspirations of making the playoffs.
How bad you beat a bunch of teams outside the Power 5 is absolutely irrelevant to determining the top 4 teams in the nation. I'm not talking about Wake Forest, I'm talking about teams outside the Power 5 conferences (the occasional Boise excepted). Those games are auto-wins for any team with even the barest aspirations of making the playoffs.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:38 pm to jcole4lsu
quote:
The question at hand was who was better than Bama to deserve to go to the National Title game against LSU. LSU was already in.
Logic fail, kid.
Oklahoma State had a better resume than Bama going into the 2011 National Title game. They were better according to SOS if I recall, and had more good wins.
Okie State was better than Bama.
You will laugh and say obviously I'm wrong but Okie state hate more wins over teams with winning records. They played more good teams and beat more good teams
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:42 pm to Buckeye06
quote:
Because I'm intentionally leaving Minnesota off too. That's my only reason. Minny right now is ranked higher than LSU and is counting as a quality win for OSU. I don't think they are better than LSU so I'm leaving them out of the debate
If we're saying Miss St and Ohio State's best 2 wins are(would be) pretty equal until LSU vs Minn then I can't ignore that LSU actually has 2 victories over top 10-15 teams in Ole Miss and Wisconsin.
Especially since quality wins is the whole logic the decision process is supposedly based on.
Again it's debatable but this is still even before considering the difference in their losses.
quote:
KosmoCramer
quote:
Being shut out by the worst team in the division that hasn't won a conference game in two years might be a reason.
Merely pointing out LSU's loss to Arkansas implies that a bad loss trumps a number of very impressive wins. That's a dangerous argument for Ohio St.
I would also add that when not only LSU but also Miss St and Alabama all have their worst games against Arkansas it looks more like a rule than an exception. It may well mean that Arkansas might actually be a decent, if certainly not great, team this year that's really just had a brutal schedule.
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:42 pm to Baloo
quote:
And I honestly don't believe the SEC is so far and away superior that it deserves two teams in a four team playoff.
If people want the 4 best teams, then you shouldnt worry about conferences at all
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:42 pm to Scruffy
quote:
The entire universe, every other dimension, and Heaven itself were against that matchup for the NCG.
The only places that supported it was Alabama and Hell.
This really just cannot be said enough. frick that rematch and every 4th grade logical fallacy that was used to support it.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:47 pm to ballscaster
quote:
Correct. Conference championships refer to but a fraction of one's season. Why base playoff berths on part of the season when we have the whole season to which to refer?
Excactly why I still think Miss St should be in top 4. It amazes me that people automatically drop someone down x amount of spots after a loss, especially late in the year. They still only have 1 loss like the other teams and that 1 loss came at a very good Bama team. It shouldnt matter that the loss was last week instead of in september
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:49 pm to Buckeye06
quote:
To me, 2011 was completely wrong. I think if LSU had lost 9-6 @ Bama, then LSU would have had a much better argument since they lost on the road and road games = 3 points in the NFL usually. Bama losing at home in November to me means there was a better team in their division by about 6 points (LSU won by 3 and Bama had a 3 point advantage).
I get your point, but youre really throwing in the 3 point vegas rule for the NFL???
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:51 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Do you want the 4 best teams or 4 most deserving?
Those are subjective terms.
Not necessarily if youre talking about only taking conference champs aka most deserving
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:52 pm to jg8623
quote:
Exactly why I still think Miss St should be in top 4. It amazes me that people automatically drop someone down x amount of spots after a loss, especially late in the year.
They don't have anything that even approaches a marquee win. They are being propped up because LSU and Auburn are down this year. A window dressing touchdown to pull within 5 when Saban was in Tressel mode is a lousy argument for staying in the top 4.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:56 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
They don't have anything that even approaches a marquee win. They are being propped up because LSU and Auburn are down this year. A window dressing touchdown to pull within 5 when Saban was in Tressel mode is a lousy argument for staying in the top 4.
Neither does Florida St for that matter
And i didnt say the way they lost to bama is why they deserve to be in top 4. I was simply pointing out that their only loss was on the road to a really good team
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 11/19/14 at 1:58 pm to jg8623
quote:
Neither does Florida St for that matter
If FSO loses they will be behind Baylor, and that says something.
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