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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 13 CFB Betting Thread
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:00 am to Zipfer2022
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:00 am to Zipfer2022
Good example is that Temple v Houston game earlier in the year. I locked in early in the week Temple +7 for 4x my usual amount. That line was a straight setup by Vegas at the time. Thought I had an advantage and it ended up really hurting me.
1
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:07 am to Zipfer2022
The only time I stray from my usual 1 unit bet is on moneyline favorites. I, like you, found that a decent record gets killed by 2x, 3x, etc. bets (and parlays). Now I know that lots of you in here don't like the ML favorite bet, but this time of year it's done really well for me. September is great for regular ATS picks, but lines I like are much more difficult for me to find now. I just find a mid-range favorite and make damn sure they don't lose. I bet whatever it takes to win 2 units.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:08 am to LSUJuice
Anyone know what the weather will be like tonite for the 2 MAC games?
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:41 am to LSUJuice
I like parlaying ML favorites to even money. My current parlay is scaring me a bit though.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:50 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
My record speaks for itself. I just prefer this thread without you in it, so I'm glad to call you out when it's appropriate.
So when it's been appropriate?
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:56 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
It just blows my mind that Bobby comes in here to argue against RLM using a single data point. I didn't even bet the game but I can't sit back and watch him destroy this thread with his illogical rationale.
Worked out perfect that last night I compiled my 2014 posted play record with most of the plays coming from money analysis only which he doesn't believe in... Good luck beating that 67.9% with "football" analysis.
1. I don't know who bobby is
2. I'm arguing against RLM quite logically. And getting attacked for a completely sound position. This is a betting thread; talking about what methods one thinks are a complete waste of time is completely apropos. Not sure why it gets your feathers ruffled.
3. I hope you do well, but if your bets are based on tracking line movements and money flow, i'll be surprised.
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 11:58 am
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:57 am to SystemsGo
It's a betting thread yet you don't bet 
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:58 am to blades8088
quote:
It's a betting thread yet you don't bet
Okay guy
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:00 pm to Double Oh
2-2
pending
Lou+3.5
adding under 44 Buf/Ken st.
-bad weather tonight. Lake Effect Snow Warning. 20 mph with gusty 30 mph
pending
Lou+3.5
adding under 44 Buf/Ken st.
-bad weather tonight. Lake Effect Snow Warning. 20 mph with gusty 30 mph
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:02 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
The only time I stray from my usual 1 unit bet is on moneyline favorites. I, like you, found that a decent record gets killed by 2x, 3x, etc. bets (and parlays). Now I know that lots of you in here don't like the ML favorite bet, but this time of year it's done really well for me. September is great for regular ATS picks, but lines I like are much more difficult for me to find now. I just find a mid-range favorite and make damn sure they don't lose. I bet whatever it takes to win 2 units
There ain't nothing wrong with betting ML favs in CFB, my man. Don't apologize for it.
Games Fav Wins Fav Losses Gains Losses Profit Return Std Dev
2006 49 46 3 $33,093.53 ($30,000,000) $3,093.53 3.09% 23.99141
2007 63 59 4 $42,142.86 ($40,000,000) $2,141.86 2.14% 24.40201
2008 68 66 2 $47,826.09 ($20,000,000) $27,826.09 27.83% 16.90802
2009 58 54 4 $41,538.46 ($40,000.00) $1,538.46 1.54% 25.35904
2010 71 68 3 $49,635.04 ($30,000.00) $19,635.04 19.64% 20.13138
2011 67 64 3 $49,230.77 ($30,000.00) $19.230.77 19.23% 20.69711
LINK
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:04 pm to SystemsGo
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:09 pm to rocket31
kidbourbon last post Oct 17th. SystemsGo created Oct 20th. 
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:13 pm to blades8088
I would like to talk about actual games being played this weekend.
I am of the belief that Ole Miss-3 provides a great deal of value for a potential investor. I set this line at -8.
Would anyone like to opine on this contest?
I am of the belief that Ole Miss-3 provides a great deal of value for a potential investor. I set this line at -8.
Would anyone like to opine on this contest?
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:16 pm to SystemsGo
Bet the house on it
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:16 pm to Double Oh
quote:
Who we betting tonite?
I don't have strong opinions on either game, and may take the unprecedented step of not betting on a weeknight game.
If I change my mind, it would prolly be on Toledo-6.*
___________________
*Though i don't know why that line was so late to post, and I would certainly want to look into seeing if there was a major injury or something before I did that.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:17 pm to SystemsGo
ole miss looking ahead to the superbowl next week is the reason its at -3
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:18 pm to blades8088
quote:
Bet the house on it
Eh, I rent. I'll buy a house when I get married.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:19 pm to oleyeller
quote:
ole miss looking ahead to the superbowl next week is the reason its at -3
Fair enough.
I think the look-ahead factor is mitigated by the fact that they've gone Presbyterian then bye week. They've gotta be itching to play an actual football game.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:21 pm to oleyeller
Doesn't Ole Miss win the west if they beat Miss St and Auburn beats Bama? Overlooking an Arky team would derail that.
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