re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread

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Correct, but with nothing else to go by except key starters returning from last year, looking back for hints helps you look forward; especially in the beginning of the season.

The biggest issue is that both RBs who carried the load for Michigan St LY are gone. However, Cook is considered a Top 5 pick in next year's draft.

Also, WMU hasn't been very good against the number over the last 3 years, where MSU has done extremely well.

My thoughts are a 4 TD or more win for Sparty.

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I looked back and the last opener that Michigan State covered on was 2007 against UAB. 7 straight openers they have not covered and that counts 3 FCS teams, Boise State, Cal and Western Michigan twice.

Never a big fan of laying that much on a road team playing on a weeknight

2014: Michigan St covered the -34.5 line vs Jacksonville St 45-7
2013: Michigan St failed to cover the -28 line vs Western Michigan 28-14
2012: Michigan St failed to cover the -7 line vs Boise St 17-13
2011: Michigan St failed to cover the -34 line vs Youngstown St 28-6
2010: Michigan St covered the -23 line vs Western Michigan 38-14
2009: Michigan St failed to cover the +6.5 vs California, a 31-38 loss.
2008: No line vs Montana
2007: Michigan St covered the -24 vs UAB 55-14

3-4 ATS in opening games from 2007-2014.

...or 3-2 ATS 2007-2014 when favored by more than 7 points in opening games.

...and from 2007-2014, WMU is 1-7 in opening games ATS. 1-6 if you don't count the game vs Michigan that was called early in 2011.

Where are you getting your stats again?

...and I think those kind of trends are total bullshite to begin with. If you bought the handicapping mags that spout trends like such and such is 7-1 ATS vs such and such on the road during the day, and bet them, you would lose more often than not.

..and WMU's campus is only 84 miles from Michigam State's campus. Not much of a road trip in a hostile territory.

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BYU/Nebraska game?

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I will probably be on BYU. They give max effort every game, and in the past have come up big on weeknight games. They are returning a lot of starters from last year that was a pretty decent team. Armstrong did not impress me much at all last year, and they will have a very hard time filling the gap with the lose of Abdullah

I like Mike Riley and he has a nice QB in Tommy Armstrong. Riley was great ATS in his time at Oregon State; other than last year's 2-10 ATS with the Beavers.

If ya say so, guess well see who wins

TCU has jumped to -15.5 as well

I'm already on Utah -6 and Minn +14.5. Lines aren't moving in my favor, although I feel really good about Utah.

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This guy is hardly a qb, more of a glorified running back

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And even better Riley runs a pro style offense. Nebraksa's most explosive weapon De’Mornay Pierson-El is out for this game.

BYU is one of my plays at +7. I'm a fan of Taysom Hill and Bronco. Nebraska receiving 66% of the bets according to Sportsbookspy which is always a bonus.

Someone explain why Utah is only -4.5?
Is it just bc of Harbaugh? Mich will be good eventually under him but not yet, how many players have transferred already? They don't even know who their damn punter is