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Message
re: NFL OT rule proposal that I never get a straight answer why not awesome
Posted on 2/8/17 at 3:33 pm to ballscaster
Posted on 2/8/17 at 3:33 pm to ballscaster
quote:
Mathematically false.
no, you're just too stupid to see it.
here i'll be nice and do the math for a you:
currently, possession is determined by the toss of a coin 100% of the time.
under your proposal, possession will be determined by the toss of a coin 100% of the time.
100% is exactly equal to 100%.
no matter when you toss it, or how you sugarcoat your idea, the fact does not change.
possession is determined by the sheer luck of a coin landing with right (or wrong) side facing up.
1
Posted on 2/8/17 at 3:44 pm to Nutriaitch
I've already done the math and have proven that this plan slightly reduces the pregame coin toss winner's chances (currently at 52%).
Posted on 2/8/17 at 4:04 pm to ballscaster
quote:
I've already done the math and have proven that this plan slightly reduces the pregame coin toss winner's chances (currently at 52%).
let me try it this way.
people at the moment are complaining about the fact that a coin toss exists as the determining factor.
nobody gives two shits about what percentage of teams win/lose the toss. even fewer people care when the coin gets tossed. your proposal does make changes to these factors. but that is completely irrelevant because nobody but you gives a frick.
the mere existence of the act of throwing a coin up into the air, letting gravity bring it down to the ground, and then looking at what side is facing the sky as a determining factor is what pisses people off. your proposal does not change this at all. who gets ball first is still determined solely by to outcome of a coin toss.
Posted on 2/8/17 at 4:14 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:I don't know what to tell you other than that you're 100% wrong here. That a foreign object enters the game already in progress and grants one team any statistical advantage whatsoever is exactly the perceived problem. That's why I took it out of the game and placed it before the game, thereby making the game mathematically more equitable.
people at the moment are complaining about the fact that a coin toss exists as the determining factor.
nobody gives two shits about what percentage of teams win/lose the toss.
even fewer people care when the coin gets tossed.
quote:Literally every sports outlet published a piece on this exact topic Monday.
nobody but you gives a frick.
quote:Correct. And the 52% advantage gleaned by the pregame toss winner is slightly reduced under my plan. Obviously this is a good thing unless there is a new problem created that I'm not noticing. Do you see one?
the mere existence of the act of throwing a coin up into the air, letting gravity bring it down to the ground, and then looking at what side is facing the sky as a determining factor is what pisses people off. your proposal does not change this at all. who gets ball first is still determined solely by to outcome of a coin toss.
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 2/8/17 at 4:24 pm to ballscaster
I'll play.
One of your arguments for your point is that if we know one team will get the ball in overtime, the other team might play the end of regulation with a different mindset/strategy. Perhaps by going for two after a late touchdown, instead of kicking the PAT and going to overtime.
However, I would argue that a 60-minute regulation football game shouldn't be played with an overtime in mind. Overtime is in place to break the tie of a regulation game and determine a winner. Why should certain decisions in regulation have to be made with a hypothetical overtime period in mind? Mainly the idea about going for 2 to avoid overtime. I don't like the idea of that.
But I'm sure I'm just being stupid and you're way is right. Carry on.
One of your arguments for your point is that if we know one team will get the ball in overtime, the other team might play the end of regulation with a different mindset/strategy. Perhaps by going for two after a late touchdown, instead of kicking the PAT and going to overtime.
However, I would argue that a 60-minute regulation football game shouldn't be played with an overtime in mind. Overtime is in place to break the tie of a regulation game and determine a winner. Why should certain decisions in regulation have to be made with a hypothetical overtime period in mind? Mainly the idea about going for 2 to avoid overtime. I don't like the idea of that.
But I'm sure I'm just being stupid and you're way is right. Carry on.
This post was edited on 2/8/17 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 2/8/17 at 4:24 pm to ballscaster
quote:
Literally every sports outlet published a piece on this exact topic Monday.
that must be a shite load of outlets. and somehow you provide no links.
AND ITS STILL A frickING COIN TOSS!!!!!
people do not want a COIN TOSS determining who gains the massive advantage of getting ball first in overtime.
you can flip it before the game, halftime, after the game, on draft day, at some junior high prom in may, etc.
doesn't matter.
the timing of said flip does not change the fact that first possession in an overtime period is determined solet by the sheer luck factor of which way a coin lands.
Posted on 2/8/17 at 4:48 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:No, it's actually the best response I've gotten, and it challenges the football morals of my plan to say the least. Herman Edwards and Tom Osborne would provide great rebuttals to your point, though.
However, I would argue that a 60-minute regulation football game shouldn't be played with an overtime in mind. Overtime is in place to break the tie of a regulation game and determine a winner. Why should certain decisions in regulation have to be made with a hypothetical overtime period in mind? Mainly the idea about going for 2 to avoid overtime. I don't like the idea of that.
But I'm sure I'm just being stupid and you're way is right. Carry on.
quote:This is the most interesting part of your point, and it highlights that regular season and postseason games are structured differently. A regular season game has a time limit, while a postseason game does not. I'll concede to your point as it refers to the regular season (and even posit that the game should end after 60 minutes regardless of the score), but postseason games don't have an ultimate time limit; somebody has to win. That is, we already have overtime in mind from the start. Not only do I have no problem with a team strategizing with overtime in mind, but I even prefer it.
I would argue that a 60-minute regulation football game shouldn't be played with an overtime in mind.
Very good response. I hadn't considered that before.
Posted on 2/8/17 at 4:49 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:I know. That's why I brought this whole thing up.
people do not want a COIN TOSS determining who gains the massive advantage of getting ball first in overtime.
quote:But it does diminish the advantage gleaned by the coin. That's the point.
doesn't matter.
the timing of said flip does not change the fact that first possession in an overtime period is determined solet by the sheer luck factor of which way a coin lands.
Posted on 2/8/17 at 5:57 pm to ballscaster
quote:
But it does diminish the advantage gleaned by the coin. That's the point.
actually, no it does not.
the end result is that due to the outcome of a flip, ONE teams gets the advantage of having the first possession in overtime.
you can sugarcoat it any way you want it, and call it whatever you want, but one fact has not changed.
one team gets the ball first in overtime.
the reason that team gets the ball first is because of the result of a coin toss.
in fact, let's apply your proposal to the game that just happened.
Currently, Atlanta fans are bitching because they never got the ball in OT thanks to the result of a coin toss.
Atlanta did in fact win the pregame toss and elected to defer.
so by your rule, New England (who lost the pregame toss) now gets to choose at the beginning of OT. they chose the ball first. They score a TD and win.
Atlanta fans will now be bitching because they never got the ball in OT thanks to the result of a coin toss.
so what did your rule "fix"?
the game ends the exact say way, with the exact same team having the exact same complaint they had prior to implementing your rule.
actually, they may complain even more that there wasn't a 2nd coin flip.
with a 2nd flip, at least there is a 50/50 shot of them getting the ball first with a shot to win.
your rule gives them a 0.0% chance of getting the ball first in OT.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 12:24 am to Nutriaitch
Take it up with the Egyptians, not me. I didn't invent math. As it is, the pregame coin grants a 52% advantage to the toss winner, and an overtime coin grants about 60%. My plan has only one coin, and it grants less than a 52% advantage.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 7:03 am to ballscaster
quote:
Take it up with the Egyptians, not me. I didn't invent math. As it is, the pregame coin grants a 52% advantage to the toss winner, and an overtime coin grants about 60%. My plan has only one coin, and it grants less than a 52% advantage.
the egyptians weren't as stupid as you.
it's not about odds of winning. so your math is not relevant.
in your rule, does a coin flip happen?
yes.
does that flip determine who gets ball first in OT?
yes.
then you didn't fix a fricking thing.
Posted on 2/9/17 at 11:21 am to Nutriaitch
quote:It's about this and nothing else. If not this, there is no problem.
it's not about odds of winning.
Posted on 2/10/17 at 11:54 am to ballscaster
quote:
It's about this and nothing else. If not this, there is no problem.
no, it's not.
pretty much nobody can tell you the exact odds of winning a toss. because they don't care what the odds are.
they just know it's dumb luck to win or lose it.
and they don't want dumb luck to be the solution.
in your scenario, it's still dumb luck.
Posted on 2/11/17 at 9:51 pm to airfernando
quote:
Something tells me you haven't played that scenario out completely. There will always be something unfair about any scenario.
Yes I have. Team A kicks off to Team B, who scores a TD.
Now, game is over
I say that in a playoff game, after
team B scores (FG or TD) they have to kickoff. If A ties it up with either a FG or TD, it's sudden death from there on out.
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