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re: MLB Top 10 players right now
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:39 am to Floating Change Up
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:39 am to Floating Change Up
quote:
Correa, Betts, Lindor are not worthy of being on that list. Anyone leaving off Miggy, Altuve and Votto need to watch more complete baseball games and fewer ESPN Plays of the Day videos.
Betts was worth more WAR last year than Altuve, Votto or Miggy. He was worth more WAR than any of them over the past two years as well. Plus he is still on the rise, Votto and Miggy are at the age when they could start declining any minute.
I'll admit there is some projection to the Correa pick, but he is young and I think he will be a stud this year. And like I said if you want to put Votto, Miggy, Altuve in place of Lindor or Correa, I wouldn't really argue it. I may weight defense/position and youth higher than others.
Get out of here with that play of the day nonsense though.
This post was edited on 2/27/17 at 8:40 am
0
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:43 am to sms151t
Chapman
Posted on 2/27/17 at 8:45 am to Floating Change Up
FWIW, I checked Fangraphs blended Steamer/ZIPS projections and they have Correa and Lindor have at 5 WAR this year. Votto, Cabrera, and Altuve are at 4. Not that projections are gospel, but don’t act like having Lindor or Correa there is crazy.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:04 am to sms151t
Scherzer?
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:05 am to The Seaward
What are Altuve's WARs the past few seasons on Fangraphs? 4 just seems low even projections skew conservative.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:05 am to Lester Earl
quote:
Road split Arrenado keeps him out of the top 10
Are we also keeping out Machado for his career .777 road OPS?
That's even before getting into the negative effects of playing road games after playing at Coors. Since Coors Field opened in 1995, the Rockies have the worst road OPS in the league despite having some pretty good offenses in that stretch. Seems pretty clear to me that the home/road split is exaggerated on both ends.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:07 am to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
What are Altuve's WARs the past few seasons on Fangraphs? 4 just seems low even projections skew conservative.
5.1
4.5
6.7
for the last 3. Projections aren't buying the massive spike in ISO and walk rate. Not sure I am either.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:12 am to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
What are Altuve's WARs the past few seasons on Fangraphs? 4 just seems low even projections skew conservative.
It is actually a projection of 4.3 (I just rounded) and I'd probably take the over. But I don't think he is a no-brainer over Lindor or Correa
This post was edited on 2/27/17 at 9:13 am
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:14 am to DallasTiger45
Great points about Colorado and Arenado. We all know it is harder to recover in altitude as well as the ball spins a little less there, so players have to adjust constantly when they leave Coors. Playing on the road as a Rocky is harder than playing on the road for any other team in baseball.
Park adjusted stats appropriately penalize the amazing effects of Coors, but they fail to handicap road games as a Rockie. All Rockies are always better than their road numbers and likely a little better than their total park adjusted numbers.
Park adjusted stats appropriately penalize the amazing effects of Coors, but they fail to handicap road games as a Rockie. All Rockies are always better than their road numbers and likely a little better than their total park adjusted numbers.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:16 am to The Seaward
True, probably not a no brainer, but it is hard not to give the edge to Altuve coming off such a huge season.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:20 am to The Seaward
quote:
projections
I thought the question was, "Who are the Top 10 players right now"...
Not, "who do you think will have the best year this season which has not even started yet?".
My interpretation of the list places a higher value on consistently performing at a high level. That's why I devalue Giancarlo Stanton, who in my opinion is the most exciting player in baseball -- to me, he is more fun to watch than Mike Trout. Yet, I don't consider him to be a Top 10 player because of he can't perform consistently.
With regard to Lindor and Correa -- No, it isn't crazy to consider them as top up and coming players. But they are both kids still learning the game. It's crazy how good they are at such a young age. I think in 3 years, this thread becomes a heated debate on "who is #1 and who is #2" -- with Lindor and Correa getting most of the focus.
But for now, they don't belong on the list, in my opinion.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:24 am to Floating Change Up
quote:
I thought the question was, "Who are the Top 10 players right now"...
Not, "who do you think will have the best year this season which has not even started yet?".
Seems like those two questions are pretty much the same thing to me.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:26 am to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
Great points about Colorado and Arenado. We all know it is harder to recover in altitude as well as the ball spins a little less there, so players have to adjust constantly when they leave Coors. Playing on the road as a Rocky is harder than playing on the road for any other team in baseball.
Park adjusted stats appropriately penalize the amazing effects of Coors, but they fail to handicap road games as a Rockie. All Rockies are always better than their road numbers and likely a little better than their total park adjusted numbers.
I agree with all of that, and I do think the park adjusted numbers probably penalize a bit too much. But Coors as a home park greatly outweighs the road effects on the raw numbers. So I think people who don’t really think much of park effects will always overrate Rockies hitters (and underrate their pitchers). If Charlie Blackmon played for the Mets, I seriously doubt he gets mentioned in this thread. And I doubt Lemahieu wins the batting title last year.
Nolan Arenado is legitimately great though, and I think a case could be made for him in the top 10.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 9:36 am to sms151t
quote:
1. Trout
2. Altuve
3. Bryant
4. Kershaw
5. Donaldson
6. Machado
7. Betts
8. Arenado
9. Harper
10. Cano
Lol at people leaving Altuve out of the top 10, much less top 5.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 10:07 am to The Seaward
Does WAR tend to skew towards players on better teams or is it truly independent of that? I don't know enough about it, I just know that a lot of advanced metrics in a lot of sports really give subtle advantages to players on better teams.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 10:07 am to rockchlkjayhku11
Mike Trout led the league by a full win on a bad team
Posted on 2/27/17 at 10:15 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
Does WAR tend to skew towards players on better teams or is it truly independent of that? I don't know enough about it, I just know that a lot of advanced metrics in a lot of sports really give subtle advantages to players on better teams.
No, it shouldn't skew toward players on better teams. The baseline is the level of replacement player for any team in the league.
What advanced metrics give advantages to players on specific teams?
Posted on 2/27/17 at 10:19 am to DallasTiger45
Probably none 
It just always seems like it with box plus minus and win shares in basketball. It has always "seemed" like it with WAR as well. Is there some component of RBI or runs scored in WAR? How is it team independent? How can it be?
I have nothing to back any of this up, just genuinely curious.
It just always seems like it with box plus minus and win shares in basketball. It has always "seemed" like it with WAR as well. Is there some component of RBI or runs scored in WAR? How is it team independent? How can it be?
I have nothing to back any of this up, just genuinely curious.
This post was edited on 2/27/17 at 10:20 am
Posted on 2/27/17 at 10:24 am to CLTiger
Having Altuve at #2 is much more laughable than not having him in the top 10.
He is 12th in WAR over the last two seasons behind Trout, Kershaw, Donaldson, Bryant, Machado, Harper, Betts, Scherzer, Votto, Sale and Goldschmidt. Then you have Lindor, Rizzo, and Arenado right behind him. Miggy and Seager are a bit down since they didn't play full seasons in 2015.
He would probably crack my top 10, but couldn't really argue anywhere from 8-17.
He is 12th in WAR over the last two seasons behind Trout, Kershaw, Donaldson, Bryant, Machado, Harper, Betts, Scherzer, Votto, Sale and Goldschmidt. Then you have Lindor, Rizzo, and Arenado right behind him. Miggy and Seager are a bit down since they didn't play full seasons in 2015.
He would probably crack my top 10, but couldn't really argue anywhere from 8-17.
Posted on 2/27/17 at 10:24 am to rockchlkjayhku11
I guess you can argue it effects positions on some teams, like on almost any team other than the Red Sox Mookie Betts would be playing CF, but I'm assuming that situation could happen on any team.
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