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re: Kentucy Derby winner have the goods to make a run at Triple Crown?
Posted on 5/3/15 at 11:03 pm to Aspercel
Posted on 5/3/15 at 11:03 pm to Aspercel
quote:oh i hate him too. but that year there was just no denying he was the best horse even off the PEDs or whatever he was on. he was a really good horse even before all that
You feel the same way about potn that I do about big brown
I take that back, I actually liked big brown, I saw him break his maiden live at saratoga and i knew then that's a fricking race horse. i hated his connections
This post was edited on 5/3/15 at 11:04 pm
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Posted on 5/3/15 at 11:08 pm to SoGaFan
AP traveled 29 feet (about 3 lengths) further than Firing line according to trackus
AP traveled 60 feet (about 6 lengths) further than Dortmund
if that was a normal race in a 10 horse field and AP had the 6 post or something he would have won that race by 5. It was a very deceiving looking race.
And I really do not understand all this outcry about the time of the race. Pace makes the race. The pace for this particular race was slow. it doesn't mean the horses are slow. It means the particular pace set was slow. All the defections and the few speed horses did not go to the front. Final times are not a good way to accurately tell how good a horse is (At least at the higher levels of racing) . He got a 105 Beyer, considering he ran further than any other horse that's pretty damn good. That's Street Sense/ Smarty Jones/ Big Brown terrotiry
AP traveled 60 feet (about 6 lengths) further than Dortmund
if that was a normal race in a 10 horse field and AP had the 6 post or something he would have won that race by 5. It was a very deceiving looking race.
And I really do not understand all this outcry about the time of the race. Pace makes the race. The pace for this particular race was slow. it doesn't mean the horses are slow. It means the particular pace set was slow. All the defections and the few speed horses did not go to the front. Final times are not a good way to accurately tell how good a horse is (At least at the higher levels of racing) . He got a 105 Beyer, considering he ran further than any other horse that's pretty damn good. That's Street Sense/ Smarty Jones/ Big Brown terrotiry
Posted on 5/3/15 at 11:21 pm to vengeanceofrain
AP is actually not run as much for a horse his age because of an earlier injury. That could help his stamina for the next races. I think he wins the Preakness and has a decent chance to win Belmont.
Posted on 5/3/15 at 11:28 pm to vengeanceofrain
I cant hate a horse for the media hyping him up. It's a horse. He just goes out there and races unaware of who thinks he's good and who doesn't or how strong the field is.
Kind of OT but I still can't believe how quickly Mine that Bird came to the front during that derby. From last to first.
Kind of OT but I still can't believe how quickly Mine that Bird came to the front during that derby. From last to first.
Posted on 5/4/15 at 1:33 am to WalkingTurtles
quote:
AP is actually not run as much for a horse his age because of an earlier injury. That could help his stamina for the next races. I think he wins the Preakness and has a decent chance to win Belmont.
That might work to his favor if it wasn't a hard fought race. But a horse with a short foundation usually takes a little while to get over a really tough race, and make no mistake, that was a tough race on both Firing Line and AP. Dortmund ran his race, but he really doesn't have the distance pedigree. EPO doesn't change Big Brown's genes.
By the way, Vengeance, where are you getting the Trakus data for Derby? I was looking for it. I wanted to see Frosted's final quarter time because as much as people are rightfully praising the run, the leaders were walking home. He should have blown by at least Dortmund if he was running a legit final quarter.
Posted on 5/4/15 at 3:52 pm to SoGaFan
All I saw from trakus was the 29 ft farther than fl and 9ft farther than Dort
Posted on 5/4/15 at 6:17 pm to weagle99
Frosted was looking strong at the end.
In a longer race, Frosted may win.
In a longer race, Frosted may win.
Posted on 5/4/15 at 6:45 pm to makersmark1
Ahh, the ole closer just needs more distance to win canard.
This may be the case in a race where a closer is coming like a freight train and just misses at the line, but in this case as far as I can see, Frosted made up all of 1length through the whole stretch despite a laughable final quarter fraction by the top 3. Apparently Materiality had the fastest last 1/16th fraction,according to Byron King at DRF, but i still have no idea where he is getting the full Trakus data. The completely unhelpful CD website just asks me if I would like the jockey's eye view of a few past Derbies. No, not really, CD. I would like actual pertinent info on this past weekend's Derby. Grr.
This may be the case in a race where a closer is coming like a freight train and just misses at the line, but in this case as far as I can see, Frosted made up all of 1length through the whole stretch despite a laughable final quarter fraction by the top 3. Apparently Materiality had the fastest last 1/16th fraction,according to Byron King at DRF, but i still have no idea where he is getting the full Trakus data. The completely unhelpful CD website just asks me if I would like the jockey's eye view of a few past Derbies. No, not really, CD. I would like actual pertinent info on this past weekend's Derby. Grr.
Posted on 5/4/15 at 7:01 pm to SoGaFan
Churchill sucks
Posted on 5/4/15 at 7:28 pm to Aspercel
According to Privman
quote:
potential Preakness field- AP, Firing Line, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Competitive Edge,Materiality, Bodhisattva, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, and International Star
Posted on 5/4/15 at 7:38 pm to TN_Tigers
Apparently Lukas thinks Mr. Z never got a chance to run, and wants to enter him in the Preakness. This poor horse took a right hand turn in the stretch of his first race on the year, finished dead last in the LA Derby, and was hellbent on running over the horses in front of him coming down the stretch the first time on Saturday. This horse doesn't need another race. He needs a rest.
This post was edited on 5/4/15 at 7:39 pm
Posted on 5/4/15 at 8:04 pm to SoGaFan
Oh god! He's gonna break z down.
Poor horse. He's got to be sore as hell.
Poor horse. He's got to be sore as hell.
Posted on 5/4/15 at 9:38 pm to weagle99
quote:
American Pharoah next TC winner?
Doubtful but, I predict it will happen once before Halley's comet returns not that I'll be here to verify it.
Posted on 5/4/15 at 9:55 pm to Aspercel
Since I was at the derby. I'm really tempted to go to the Preakness. Which is my favorite race.
It's one thing to pull for a triple crown at home. It's another to potentially be there for history.
It's one thing to pull for a triple crown at home. It's another to potentially be there for history.
Posted on 5/4/15 at 11:41 pm to Mahootney
Its been proven time and time again closing kick gets nutruelized by extra distance
Unless a euro is coming over no horse this year is going to improve because they got more room to close
Unless a euro is coming over no horse this year is going to improve because they got more room to close
Posted on 5/5/15 at 12:34 pm to vengeanceofrain
I think i've talked the wife into letting me go to pimplico.
And if AP wins... Belmont.
This could be the year. And I could be there.
How exciting!
And if AP wins... Belmont.
This could be the year. And I could be there.
How exciting!
Posted on 5/5/15 at 12:41 pm to weagle99
I think he's the one. Remember their age and they are maturing daily. He seemed poised to be able to hold on longer and was bred for it.
Unless someone shows me a reason another horse is better, there's no reason to believe he'll lose (other than historical stats, lol)
Unless someone shows me a reason another horse is better, there's no reason to believe he'll lose (other than historical stats, lol)
Posted on 5/5/15 at 12:48 pm to GeeOH
It's not that he doesn't have the talent.
It's that 3 races in such short order is tough.
Plus, this crop of 3-yo's is super legit.
It's that 3 races in such short order is tough.
Plus, this crop of 3-yo's is super legit.
Posted on 5/5/15 at 12:57 pm to Mahootney
I think husband is heading to Belmont with promise me silver for the acorn on derby day. My arse is going too, even if I have to hot walk her 
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