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re: Is there a NFL quarterback in this draft?
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:40 pm to MagillaGuerilla
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:40 pm to MagillaGuerilla
I think Bill Parcells said that wins and number of starts were the most accurate indicators for predicting what a college QB would do in the NFL.
2
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:41 pm to bigt41
quote:
Tyler Wilson and Tyler Bray are the two best QB's in this draft
Bray has the highest ceiling of any of them IMO. He needs to go to a team with a solid, veteran locker room that won't tolerate his white trash dumbfrickery.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:42 pm to MagillaGuerilla
quote:
not sure how many 5-6 loss QBs have been drafted in the 1st the past few years.
The best QB in the 2006 class played on a team that lost 6 games--in a row, no less--the season he was drafted. Jay Cutler.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:48 pm to Marty McFrat
quote:
There's been a few
Three out of 13 since 2008:
Tannehill(6)
Locker(6)
Freeman(7)
This season:
Geno Smith(6)
Barkley(4)
Wilson(7)
Bray(7)
Both Barkley and Wilson missed 1 start for their teams, which where losses.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:50 pm to Sophandros
quote:
The best QB in the 2006 class played on a team that lost 6 games--in a row, no less--the season he was drafted. Jay Cutler.
True that.
I'm not saying it matters much, but there's usually more than one 9/10 game winner. My logic is not EJ Manuel is the best QB in the class because of his record.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:51 pm to Bench McElroy
Check this out:
Lewin Career Forecast: Introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 by David Lewin, and updated by Aaron Schatz here, a system for projecting the peak success of college quarterbacks entering the NFL. Abbreviated LCF, the original version projected first- and second-round picks based on collegiate games started and collegiate completion percentage. LCF v2.0 projects picks in the first three rounds based on a weighted combination of seven factors:
1) Career college games started. Uses a minimum of 20, a maximum of 48.
2) Career completion rate; however, this is now a logrithmic variable. As a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.
3) Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
4) Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season, with a maximum of 0.5.
5) Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 600.
6) For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.
7) A binary variable that penalizes Division I-A quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference. We counted Notre Dame here as a BCS school. Division I-AA quarterbacks are not penalized.
-----------------------
This is basically an expansion on Parcells' statement. Wins are less important because they are TEAM stats. But if a QB is excelling in completion rate, passing efficiency, and improving year to year, their teams GENERALLY win more games. But at the same time, QBs don't play defense or special teams, nor are they responsible for a number of other variables that will affect their team's outcome (such as your school eliminating the office).
Lewin Career Forecast: Introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 by David Lewin, and updated by Aaron Schatz here, a system for projecting the peak success of college quarterbacks entering the NFL. Abbreviated LCF, the original version projected first- and second-round picks based on collegiate games started and collegiate completion percentage. LCF v2.0 projects picks in the first three rounds based on a weighted combination of seven factors:
1) Career college games started. Uses a minimum of 20, a maximum of 48.
2) Career completion rate; however, this is now a logrithmic variable. As a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.
3) Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
4) Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season, with a maximum of 0.5.
5) Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 600.
6) For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.
7) A binary variable that penalizes Division I-A quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference. We counted Notre Dame here as a BCS school. Division I-AA quarterbacks are not penalized.
-----------------------
This is basically an expansion on Parcells' statement. Wins are less important because they are TEAM stats. But if a QB is excelling in completion rate, passing efficiency, and improving year to year, their teams GENERALLY win more games. But at the same time, QBs don't play defense or special teams, nor are they responsible for a number of other variables that will affect their team's outcome (such as your school eliminating the office).
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:51 pm to bomber77
Simply nope
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:51 pm to bomber77
This post was edited on 2/15/13 at 4:44 pm
Posted on 12/29/12 at 5:59 pm to Sophandros
quote:
The best QB in the 2006 class played on a team that lost 6 games--in a row, no less--the season he was drafted. Jay Cutler.
It's one thing to lose a bunch of games at a program like Vanderbilt but at programs like Virginia Tech, USC, West Virginia, and Tennessee, a future top NFL QB should be expected to win bigger at those places. I'll give Bray a pass because Tennessee's defense and coaching staff were historically inept but the other three have no excuses for not winning a lot more games than they did.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 6:52 pm to Bench McElroy
Offhand there's not a surefire, gonna set the league on fire type guy. Geno absolutely goes through his progressions, but if he gets pressured consistently he gets rattled and it's all downhill from there. The critique I think I've read about Barkley is arm strength, but I haven't watched him play enough to judge the amount of zip he puts on a ball or his ability to hit medium and long-range routes. Going into this season I thought Wilson might be the best of the lot. He's still got a chance, but he has his blemishes as well. Bray is possibly the best physical specimen but he's a gunslinger. Those type of guys are hit-or-miss. Not sold on Logan Thomas.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 8:22 pm to Matisyeezy
Nick Florence is better than Barkley or Geno Smith IMO.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 8:27 pm to Bench McElroy
Future NFL QBs need to play defense and special teams?
Posted on 12/29/12 at 9:29 pm to bomber77
Glennon from N.C. State. He has more potential than the last 1st round QB from N.C. State did.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 9:30 pm to JDM1992
quote:
If Murray leaves, I think he'll be the first QB.
Isn't Murray only 5'11? 5'11 works if you have an arm like Brees or the overall package like Wilson. Murray has neither.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 9:32 pm to Sophandros
Mike Glennon? He's like Matt Ryan/Matt Schaub.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 9:37 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
Bray has the highest ceiling of any of them IMO
quote:
His physical tools give him more potential than any other 2013 quarterback, and if his evaluation were based on that alone, I'd say Bray could be a top-10 pick.
However, there are concerns about his game. Bray seems to struggle to process information quickly, and it appears at times on film that he doesn't have a great sense of what defenses are doing in terms of pass rush and coverage schemes. He also lacks mobility and foot quickness in the pocket.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 9:38 pm to tduecen
I like Ryan Nassib but wouldn't spend a 1st rounder on him.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 9:38 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
This post was edited on 2/15/13 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 12/29/12 at 9:53 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Murray's got a damned good arm and is more mobile than people give him credit for.
Posted on 12/29/12 at 11:22 pm to Sophandros
Cody Vaz
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