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re: High School coach who never punts is trying something new
Posted on 8/19/15 at 3:51 pm to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 8/19/15 at 3:51 pm to TheCaterpillar
I don't have an opinion one way or the other on Kelley, but he did give a really good interview not too long ago on Slate's Hang Up and Listen podcast.
He even argued that his philosophy on punting and onside kicking is hardly innovative, and that its success is more due to the fact that high school football has a high margin for error and lends itself to more big plays, yet coaches are still oddly conservative and treat it like they're coaching in an NFL game with regard to special teams and 4th downs. Also (DS can probably attest), he mentioned that they spend a crazy amount of time on onside kicks, while most high school teams hardly ever practice it (we never did).
He even argued that his philosophy on punting and onside kicking is hardly innovative, and that its success is more due to the fact that high school football has a high margin for error and lends itself to more big plays, yet coaches are still oddly conservative and treat it like they're coaching in an NFL game with regard to special teams and 4th downs. Also (DS can probably attest), he mentioned that they spend a crazy amount of time on onside kicks, while most high school teams hardly ever practice it (we never did).
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 3:52 pm
1
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:19 pm to Feral
The other part of it is high school kickers/punters don't kick it far. It's one thing in the NFL and even college where most of the time you kickoff and they start on the 20 or 25. But his point on the onside kick is that they're starting on the 30 or 40 even if you kick it deep. Might as well onside. Same goes for punting. Unless you have an all-state punter, you just don't flip the field that much in high school.
The other analyst guy they brought in for that segment explained it well, as it relates to the NFL. With the professional kickers and punters, the numbers aren't nearly in favor of going for it on 4th as they are in high school. But between the 40s, teams should be going for it way more often.
The other analyst guy they brought in for that segment explained it well, as it relates to the NFL. With the professional kickers and punters, the numbers aren't nearly in favor of going for it on 4th as they are in high school. But between the 40s, teams should be going for it way more often.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 4:30 pm to LSUJuice
This thread made me think of how the term "forward lateral" doesn't really make sense.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:17 pm to LSUJuice
Just the kickoff being at the 40 per high school rules tilts the equation towards onside kicks...
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:35 pm to shel311
quote:
It's definitely somewhere between this guy and how ridiculously conservative most NFL coaches are. But I think the NFL guys should be soooooo much more agressive, just seems too logical to go for it in so many of these situations.
The Kevin Faulk 4th down play against the Colts tells you all you need to know about the situation in the NFL. Arguably the best coach in the league took absolutely withering criticism from virtually all corners - even though it was, IMO, the right decision. Very few coaches are going to have the sack to stand up to that scrutiny.
I agree with you that the NFL is preposterously conservative on this front. College too, really.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:50 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
Everyone talks about him going for it all the time but I bet he wouldn't do so without the talent advantage in most games. NFL coaches are so conservative bc every team is within 10 points of each other.
NFL coaches are conservative because a boneheaded (unsuccessful) gamble and they lose their jobs, or at the very least are the butt of every joke for the next week.
High school coaches don't have that kind of pressure.
As the dollars go up, assholes pucker up.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 6:23 pm to tduecen
I've always thought you could never do it, but if you could, being able to have one kickoff return team solely of rugby players would be the most dominant unit in the league.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 6:25 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
The Kevin Faulk 4th down play against the Colts tells you all you need to know about the situation in the NFL. Arguably the best coach in the league took absolutely withering criticism from virtually all corners - even though it was, IMO, the right decision. Very few coaches are going to have the sack to stand up to that scrutiny.
I agree with you that the NFL is preposterously conservative on this front. College too, really.
Totally agree. The NFL has bred this "coach for your job" culture that has essentially forced NFL head coaches to be groupthink dittoheads who do things out of want to keep their jobs instead of using analytics and common sense. Belichick was one of the first coaches to incorporate spread concepts in his offense, and he's more aggressive in late downs than most, so it's no coincidence that he's the most successful HC in the league.
I'm no Panthers fan, but I remember a few years ago when the Panthers had something like 4th and inches inside the 5 and Ron Rivera kicked a field goal instead of using Cam Newton (arguably the best short yardage QB in the league) or his stable of highly paid backs (at that time the backfield consisted of Mike Tolbert, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart). Of course they ended up losing and it was arguably the worst pansy 4th down decision I've ever seen in football.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 6:34 pm to tduecen
There is a statistics chart that has been developed for the NFL on when punting, kicking a fg, and going for it on 4th down is the correct decision. Obviously, the quality of kickers in the NFL is much higher in the NFL. So I'd assume the range that going for it on 4th down in college and high school would expand.
I think this coach's assertion that a 33% increase in getting a 1st down outweighs the 20/30yd change in field position on a punt is correct.
LINK
I think this coach's assertion that a 33% increase in getting a 1st down outweighs the 20/30yd change in field position on a punt is correct.
LINK
Posted on 8/19/15 at 6:46 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
on your own 5 its stupid. the down side risk is stupendous.
If you practice onside kicks, I can see doing it often but not every time.
surprise has to be a factor so the opponent cannot just be ready for it.
I would go for it too, from anywhere on the opponent side of the field.
If you practice onside kicks, I can see doing it often but not every time.
surprise has to be a factor so the opponent cannot just be ready for it.
I would go for it too, from anywhere on the opponent side of the field.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 6:46 pm to CelticDog
I would pay money to watch this guy and Mike McCarthy break down the NFC championship game film
ETA with bill Belicheck as moderator
ETA with bill Belicheck as moderator
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:35 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:I completely understand why a coach may be a bit more conservative there due to backlash and what not, but if you're allowing those factors to creep into your decisions, it shows a real lack of leadership.
The Kevin Faulk 4th down play against the Colts tells you all you need to know about the situation in the NFL. Arguably the best coach in the league took absolutely withering criticism from virtually all corners - even though it was, IMO, the right decision. Very few coaches are going to have the sack to stand up to that scrutiny.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 8:25 pm to iliveinabox
quote:
Dude is coaching like he's playing PlayStation, love it.
Wouldn't that be considered cheesing on Playstation?
Posted on 8/20/15 at 9:02 am to Bestbank Tiger
Pretty cool but it goes both ways. There are ultra-conservative teams that are just as successful. Ohio State under Jim Tressel was one. In the HS ranks here in Ohio, Hilliard Davidson runs the veer/mid-line option and rarely passes. They have a 157-42 record in 16 years under Brian White, with 2 big school state championships without any real star power. In one state championship run they went undefeated and passed 60 times the entire year. Cincinnati Colerain is another, although they have the athletes to boot. All it takes is a solid defense that can generate stops and an offense that can burn clock. Easier said than done I know, but the formula works too.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 11:46 am to CelticDog
quote:
on your own 5 its stupid. the down side risk is stupendous.
Why? If you don't make it - the other team will score like 90% of the time .. If you punt the other team will score like 80% of the time.
It's not a huge risk at all.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 11:50 am to threeputt
Stick to golf bear Bryant
Posted on 8/20/15 at 12:37 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:This coach wouldn't make it to week 2 in any of the old school NCAA leagues I played in.
Wouldn't that be considered cheesing on Playstation?
Posted on 8/20/15 at 12:52 pm to shel311
quote:
I completely understand why a coach may be a bit more conservative there due to backlash and what not, but if you're allowing those factors to creep into your decisions, it shows a real lack of leadership.
I don't think they consciously decide not to go for it when they should for fear for criticism. I just think it is built into the culture that it's a "smart" play to punt because that's what everyone else does. Like small ball in baseball, it is so ingrained. The biggest obstacle is it that most people don't understand statistics and there is no way to say that without coming across as a condescending a-hole unfortunately. Saying you can't judge whether something was a good or bad decision based on the outcome sounds stupid to most people.
The NE play is a perfect example, it was absolutely the right call but that doesn't mean it will work 100% of the time. If they punt and Manning marches down the field to win people can accept that for some reason, but if the Faulk pass gets the first, the game is over. Poor execution doesn't change the fact it was the right call.
This post was edited on 8/20/15 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 8/20/15 at 1:02 pm to tress4pres
quote:
Hilliard Davidson runs the veer/mid-line option and rarely passes. They have a 157-42 record in 16 years under Brian White, with 2 big school state championships without any real star power. In one state championship run they went undefeated and passed 60 times the entire year
that's not really what is meant by conservative in this context and it is also not about judging whether the team wins championships because anything can happen in a small sample and football championships are always based on 1 game. It's like people saying "Moneyball" doesn't work because the A's didn't win the WS.
Posted on 8/20/15 at 2:09 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
If you can stand Bryant Gumble for 10 minutes, this segment was worth it.
I'd suggest listening to his interview with Chris Vernon (Much better interview imo)
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