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Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:38 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Post ad and boogie combined record while being supposed top 10 players. It's laugabale. At some point the wins gotta come if you wanna be considered at the top of the players rankings.
From the time they got Cousins til the time they shut it down and sat him with the tank, they went 10-11 with a margin of victory of 2.1.
Even if they don't have any improvement in chemistry, a projected win total of around .500 is enough to make +200 to make playoffs incredibly enticing. If you disagree with that, then you are missing huge betting opportunities to bet the "over" on the win total of Denver/Clips/Portland/Jazz/Memphis.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:42 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
They are different bets. All it takes is a few big bets on one side for the pels for the line to move on the o/u. That wouldn't necessarily affect the other line though. That's a different pool of money going into that one.
You don't understand at all. One of those bets has to be enticing. If the best estimate for how good the Pels are is substantially less than 41.5 wins, than betting the under is positive equity. If that is not the case, then +200 is too good of playoff odds to give for a team projected to be .500 or above. A team projected to go .500 will make the playoffs more than 33% of the time when they are competing for 3 spots with 5 other teams with virtually identical projected wins(again according to Vegas)
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:47 am to TheSexecutioner
One Of the bets being enticing doesn't mean the line is wrong. I am in complete understanding of what is going on. You don't realize that the two bets are totally independent of each other.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:50 am to Boomshockalocka
Lol boom are you even reading what he's saying? He knows they are independent of each other. But there is a gap to be taken advantage of. The lines currently don't work together. One of them is off, maybe both
This post was edited on 7/13/17 at 9:51 am
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:50 am to TheSexecutioner
And again.
The vegas o/u is NOT vegas's projected wins.
It's the number that will bring the action that vegas wants.
The vegas o/u is NOT vegas's projected wins.
It's the number that will bring the action that vegas wants.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:53 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
One Of the bets being enticing doesn't mean the line is wrong. I am in complete understanding of what is going on. You don't realize that the two bets are totally independent of each other.
Of course they are independent. WHich is why there is arbitrage available. That is the point of the thread. If they were rationally formed dependent of one another, either the Pels O/U would be lower or the odds to make playoffs would be less enticing and this thread would have never been made.
Two bets formed from inconsistent mechanisms do not match up. You can get positive equity by betting both.
This post was edited on 7/13/17 at 9:54 am
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:54 am to mr brightside
if it was off vegas would catch it and correct it.
Ok now show me that he lines have changed.
Ok now show me that he lines have changed.
This post was edited on 7/13/17 at 9:54 am
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:54 am to Boomshockalocka
Better make the bet before Pels get Bledsoe 
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:58 am to Boomshockalocka
which is why I and my betting friends who understand the premise of this and aren't babbling nonsense about the bets being independent of each other think one might be a screw-up.
Even as of now, you would have to use 2 different betting sites. Its not like Sportsbook is offering Pels 41.5. You would have to bet that on one sportsbook and bet the +200 on another. Still, its incredible that there is such a massive opportunity between those two lines. Hence this thread being made. Believe it or not, it wasn't started for the purpose of inviting you to give your opinion on how good the Pelicans are.
Even as of now, you would have to use 2 different betting sites. Its not like Sportsbook is offering Pels 41.5. You would have to bet that on one sportsbook and bet the +200 on another. Still, its incredible that there is such a massive opportunity between those two lines. Hence this thread being made. Believe it or not, it wasn't started for the purpose of inviting you to give your opinion on how good the Pelicans are.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:03 am to TheSexecutioner
Read the op again homie it doesn't say anything about using two different betting sites. It used the projected win sharesor whatever to say that the line was bad.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:10 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Read the op again homie it doesn't say anything about using two different betting sites. It used the projected win sharesor whatever to say that the line was bad
Yeh, that projected win share thing was nonsense. But we then expanded on a subsequent discussion about the value of the bet. Before you got woefully confused and derailed it at least.
Take all analysis and predictions out of this. Because for literally ANY value that the Pels have(underrated, overrated, correctly rated), one or both of those bets are profitable.
Now once you understand that, we can bring analysis back in and talk about which bet the "free money" comes from. I have a feeling you think it is the Pels 41.5 O/U and I think its the Pels +200. That is a discussion very much relevant and worth having, but this is incredibly derailing trying to catch you up on what is even being discussed.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:12 am to TheSexecutioner
pels went 11-14 after aquiring boogie
2-9 vs playoff teams
3-4 vs division
9-11 vs the West
slow your role pels fan
2-9 vs playoff teams
3-4 vs division
9-11 vs the West
slow your role pels fan
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:12 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
+200 is absurd.
It doesnt make sense with their win totals. They have Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, and T Wolves at 46.5 wins or more. Then Mavs, Kings, Lakers, Suns at 34.5 or less.
Eliminating those, that leaves 3 spots for 6 teams. Nugs, Griz, Clips, Pels, Jazz, Blazers..... All are within a game of .500 on the win total.
From the OP^^^ There is all the information you need.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:14 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:. Maybe so but the implication that the line is 'wrong' is laughable.
ke all analysis and predictions out of this. Because for literally ANY value that the Pels have(underrated, overrated, correctly rated), one or both of those bets are profitable
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:22 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
if it was off vegas would catch it and correct it.
quote:
Maybe so but the implication that the line is 'wrong' is laughable.
That is cognitive dissonance.
All of those things cannot be true.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:24 am to TheSexecutioner
if one book has a line at -6 and one has a -8 on the same game it doesn't mean there has been a mistake even though there's a nice chance for the middle right there. This is the same situation.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:28 am to Boomshockalocka
You are 100% correct. So that means that this statement of yours
is not. Because that obviously hasn't happened. And the OP and a few other posters did a pretty good job of illustrating that before you had to turn it to a Pelican bashing rant.
When you say Vegas, I assumed you were talking about Vegas as an institution. That Vegas would never allow "free money" like the OP talked about. They obviously do, in this case and in your middle example. It is very rare, but that is why there is a thread about this.
quote:
if it was off vegas would catch it and correct it. Ok now show me that he lines have changed.
is not. Because that obviously hasn't happened. And the OP and a few other posters did a pretty good job of illustrating that before you had to turn it to a Pelican bashing rant.
When you say Vegas, I assumed you were talking about Vegas as an institution. That Vegas would never allow "free money" like the OP talked about. They obviously do, in this case and in your middle example. It is very rare, but that is why there is a thread about this.
This post was edited on 7/13/17 at 10:35 am
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:33 am to TheSexecutioner
Wrong. It is two different sports books.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:36 am to Winston Cup
quote:
pels went 11-14 after aquiring boogie
2-9 vs playoff teams
3-4 vs division
9-11 vs the West
Did you actually watch the games?
They played terrible together to start. Had no clue how to play together.
Then they hit a stride and were playing very well, blowing out bad teams and highly competitive versus good teams, had a good record in that stretch.
Then they were both shut down for the last bunch of games once they were eliminated from playoff contention.
Once they figured it out, they played very well.
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