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Started By
Message
Free Money Alert Baw!!!!! sportsbook.ag has Pelicans +200 to make playoffs
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:15 pm
+200 is absurd.
It doesnt make sense with their win totals. They have Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, and T Wolves at 46.5 wins or more. Then Mavs, Kings, Lakers, Suns at 34.5 or less.
Eliminating those, that leaves 3 spots for 6 teams. Nugs, Griz, Clips, Pels, Jazz, Blazers..... All are within a game of .500 on the win total. Pels have the best two players on any of those teams (maybe worst coach?).
So if Pels are exactly neutral in that group, they should get even odds. 2 to 1 is absurd. They just have to go .500ish to win 2-1. Do you think the Pels are a below .500 team?
We won 46 a couple years ago with a worse team. And it wont take 46 to make it this year.
extremely small credit to TheSexecutioner
From Nate Nickel and 538:
photocreds: boom texted me this pic and was irate that Houston wasn't #2
It doesnt make sense with their win totals. They have Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, and T Wolves at 46.5 wins or more. Then Mavs, Kings, Lakers, Suns at 34.5 or less.
Eliminating those, that leaves 3 spots for 6 teams. Nugs, Griz, Clips, Pels, Jazz, Blazers..... All are within a game of .500 on the win total. Pels have the best two players on any of those teams (maybe worst coach?).
So if Pels are exactly neutral in that group, they should get even odds. 2 to 1 is absurd. They just have to go .500ish to win 2-1. Do you think the Pels are a below .500 team?
We won 46 a couple years ago with a worse team. And it wont take 46 to make it this year.
extremely small credit to TheSexecutioner
From Nate Nickel and 538:
photocreds: boom texted me this pic and was irate that Houston wasn't #2
This post was edited on 7/12/17 at 1:37 pm
17
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:16 pm to mr brightside
Here we go
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:17 pm to mr brightside
Oh lord.
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:18 pm to mr brightside
lemme know when its +350
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:18 pm to mr brightside
quote:
Nugs, Griz, Clips, Pels, Jazz, Blazers
that is such a log jam. Jazz are out but you can make a good case for the other 5.
I think the Clippers will be pretty good all things considered.
This post was edited on 7/12/17 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:19 pm to mr brightside
Who's the bench gonna be?
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:21 pm to chalmetteowl
I might sign up
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:23 pm to mr brightside
Fake News
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:26 pm to mr brightside
I'd say that's accurate. Could go up or down depending who they add. This is not a coach who is a winner. And these are not players who have been winners. winning begets winning. Hard to turn that corner.
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:34 pm to mr brightside
I'm making the bet they don't make the playoffs
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:37 pm to mr brightside
Absurd?
Just say you find value in the bet, but to call it absurd is well.....absurd.
Just say you find value in the bet, but to call it absurd is well.....absurd.
This post was edited on 7/12/17 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:40 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
career worst performances in elimination games begets more career worst performances in elimination games
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:42 pm to mr brightside
I'm annoyed bovada doesn't have season props up for the NBA yet.
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:43 pm to mr brightside
In first page.
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:46 pm to castorinho
quote:
Absurd? Just say you find value in the bet, but to call it absurd is well.....absurd.
It is indeed absurd though. I would make a case that it is a coin-flip at 50/50.
What do you put these teams chances of making the playoffs?
Portland
Denver
Utah
LAC
Griz
Pels
Those are the 6 teams all about equal for the 6-8 spots. Half will make it. And it shouldn"t take much more than 41 wins. Perhaps 43. Pels only have to be in the top 3 of those 6 33% of the time to make this a positive equity bet. A If Pels are less than 33%, some of those teams have to be way over 50%. And none of those teams are clearly better than the Pels. But none of their O/U win totals are above 42.5. So if this bet isn"t absurd, that one is.
This post was edited on 7/12/17 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:48 pm to mr brightside
quote:
Eliminating those, that leaves 3 spots for 6 teams. Nugs, Griz, Clips, Pels, Jazz, Blazers..... All are within a game of .500 on the win total. Pels have the best two players on any of those teams (maybe worst coach?).
denver is underrated, they'll go 45+ if healthy
memphis will fall back down to earth, <40
LAC is a middling team, probably good enough for 35-45 wins honestly
Utah is another team that's middling, good enough for 35-45
Portland with a full offseason will be better and should be 45+
New Orleans should be 45+, but guard and wing play are HUGE question marks. They still fall in the same 35-45 realm.
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:48 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
This is not a coach who is a winner
Very true, Gentry is a bum. He's put together a good coaching staff though. Adding Finch is a big get for him.
quote:
And these are not players who have been winners. winning begets winning. Hard to turn that corner.
And dumb as usual. Phrases that mean absolutely nothing. If this were true, no losing teams would get good, and no winning teams would get bad.
Posted on 7/12/17 at 1:53 pm to Fun Bunch
Winning teams get bad when players get old. What losing team has become a winning team recently? I'm sure you will find some solid winning vets on those teams.
Posted on 7/12/17 at 2:01 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Winning teams get bad when players get old. What losing team has become a winning team recently? I'm sure you will find some solid winning vets on those teams.
Within the last decade or so in the West, The Blazers, the Jazz, the Clippers, the Griz.
Which winning vets were on the Blazers when they got good with Lilliard and Aldridge? CP3, I'll give you. What about Jazz and Griz?
This post was edited on 7/12/17 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 7/12/17 at 2:27 pm to Boomshockalocka
Speaking with a couple of my sports betting friends, I think it might just be a mistake. It definitely shows up there though.
Vegas has Pels at 41.5 wins. Clips, Griz, Nugs, Jazz, Blazers all virtually the same. None of those teams can be more than a hair over +100 without opening up major arbitrage.
So I guess jump on it if you trust them to payout. Its an incredible average return.
Vegas has Pels at 41.5 wins. Clips, Griz, Nugs, Jazz, Blazers all virtually the same. None of those teams can be more than a hair over +100 without opening up major arbitrage.
So I guess jump on it if you trust them to payout. Its an incredible average return.
This post was edited on 7/12/17 at 2:28 pm
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