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re: Does UNC deserve a playoff spot if they beat Clemson?
Posted on 11/30/15 at 5:49 pm to EastCarolinaHeel
Posted on 11/30/15 at 5:49 pm to EastCarolinaHeel
quote:
Had the AP poll gone past 25, I would have.
AP poll is terrible anyway.
quote:
Thanks for they Massey tip. I'll check it out.
Just a warning, Massey also has Ohio State in the top four.
1
Posted on 11/30/15 at 5:49 pm to EastCarolinaHeel
quote:
1 > 5
If Clemson loses they won't still be ahead of Michigan State. Michigan State would probably be 2 and Clemson 6 or 7. Ohio State also won all games relatively comfortably and in regulation. UNC needed OT to beat VT.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 5:53 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
quote:
Just a warning, Massey also has Ohio State in the top four.
For now.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 5:58 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
If Clemson loses they won't still be ahead of Michigan State. Michigan State would probably be 2 and Clemson 6 or 7. Ohio State also won all games relatively comfortably and in regulation. UNC needed OT to beat VT.
7 point victories over No. Illinois and Indiana were comfortable?
UNC was ahead 24-10 with a little over 4:00 left against VT before they nearly fumbled the game away. Have to mention this was Beamer's last home game. I'm just glad we got out of there with a W.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 6:07 pm to EastCarolinaHeel
quote:
For now.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 6:11 pm to EastCarolinaHeel
quote:
7 point victories over No. Illinois and Indiana were comfortable?
More comfortable than OT.
UNC had quite a few close calls of their own, didn't they?
Posted on 11/30/15 at 6:17 pm to EastCarolinaHeel
Ohio State was ahead of Indiana @ Indiana by 14 until a late touchdown made it close. To be fair Indiana also had a chance to score at the end of the game.
NIU had the ball twice down 7 late in the game and never crossed their own 30 yard line.
NIU had the ball twice down 7 late in the game and never crossed their own 30 yard line.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 6:21 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
quote:
UNC had quite a few close calls of their own, didn't they?
GT and VT.
GT led 21-0 and it looked like we were destined for another disappointing season. We scored two TD's in the last 90 secs on the 1st half, and turned around the game and season.
VT. Already mentioned the specifics of that one. I was more than nervous about this one with it being Beamer's last stand. Still, we were in control and in position to go up 31-10 with 4 minutes left until we turned the ball over and over.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 6:22 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
Ohio State was ahead of Indiana @ Indiana by 14 until a late touchdown made it close. To be fair Indiana also had a chance to score at the end of the game.
Same thing (kind of) happened with us at Pitt. They scored a garbage TD late to make it look closer.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 6:39 pm to EastCarolinaHeel
quote:
until we turned the ball over and over.
It happens sometimes. Early season turnovers were the main reason those games weren't absolute blowouts. It had more to do with turnovers than it did with Cardale early.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 8:59 pm to VABuckeye
Osu and UNC both have a common opponent in Virginia Tech
OSU won 42-24
UNC won 30-27 in OT
OSU won 42-24
UNC won 30-27 in OT
Posted on 11/30/15 at 9:03 pm to theebuckeyenut
Was VT starting their awful QB Motley against UNC?
Posted on 11/30/15 at 9:10 pm to theebuckeyenut
To be fair, they also share Illinois, and UNC beat them a lot worse than Ohio State did. I don't put much in common opponents, but there it is.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 9:56 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
I think this is a great debate and a lot closer than people realize right now.
As a side note, I've had a pretty solid handle on the committee since the end of last year. Correctly predicted the final field with Ohio State edging out Baylor and TCU on the board and I have nailed the Top 4 each of the last three weeks.
The committee has shown a lot of tendencies on the things they value and I really believe a UNC victory over Clemson would likely propel them into the last spot of the CFP field.
Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, Subjective "Eyeball" test, and the All Important Conference Championship.
This Strength of Wins metric LINK has to be very similar to the one used by the committee because I have used it as a reference throughout this year and it has been a key ingredient for teams the committee have favored.
Wins Rating
Ohio State #10, North Carolina #11
UNC would certainly shoot up the board with a win over #1 Clemson
Strength of Schedule
There are thousands of different SOS metrics out there I prefer to use TeamRankings.com as they have a current and a future SOS rating
Current
Ohio State #35 North Carolina #43
after next week it projects to be
Ohio State #36 North Carolina #32
Ohio State would get the nod for the eyeball test as they are the defending National Champions and they have the #2 average recruiting class over the last 4 seasons. Ohio State would be about a 4.5 pt favorite over North Carolina on a neutral field according to Sagarin.
UNC will already 2 of the 3 above metrics over Ohio State and what would ultimately send them over the top would be the all mighty Conference Championship, the very thing that propelled the Buckeyes into the playoffs last season would very likely be what keeps them out of this years field IF Alabama wins, with the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 Champions locking up spots in the field.
Again, I have no dog in the fight, I enjoyed debating with people down the stretch last year why Ohio State was going to make the field so I don't want the Buckeye fans to think I am picking on you. Do I think North Carolina is a better team than Ohio State? No not really, but I do feel all the factors above would leave the committee feel that the Tarheels were more deserving of a spot than Ohio State.
As a side note, I've had a pretty solid handle on the committee since the end of last year. Correctly predicted the final field with Ohio State edging out Baylor and TCU on the board and I have nailed the Top 4 each of the last three weeks.
The committee has shown a lot of tendencies on the things they value and I really believe a UNC victory over Clemson would likely propel them into the last spot of the CFP field.
Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, Subjective "Eyeball" test, and the All Important Conference Championship.
This Strength of Wins metric LINK has to be very similar to the one used by the committee because I have used it as a reference throughout this year and it has been a key ingredient for teams the committee have favored.
Wins Rating
Ohio State #10, North Carolina #11
UNC would certainly shoot up the board with a win over #1 Clemson
Strength of Schedule
There are thousands of different SOS metrics out there I prefer to use TeamRankings.com as they have a current and a future SOS rating
Current
Ohio State #35 North Carolina #43
after next week it projects to be
Ohio State #36 North Carolina #32
Ohio State would get the nod for the eyeball test as they are the defending National Champions and they have the #2 average recruiting class over the last 4 seasons. Ohio State would be about a 4.5 pt favorite over North Carolina on a neutral field according to Sagarin.
UNC will already 2 of the 3 above metrics over Ohio State and what would ultimately send them over the top would be the all mighty Conference Championship, the very thing that propelled the Buckeyes into the playoffs last season would very likely be what keeps them out of this years field IF Alabama wins, with the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 Champions locking up spots in the field.
Again, I have no dog in the fight, I enjoyed debating with people down the stretch last year why Ohio State was going to make the field so I don't want the Buckeye fans to think I am picking on you. Do I think North Carolina is a better team than Ohio State? No not really, but I do feel all the factors above would leave the committee feel that the Tarheels were more deserving of a spot than Ohio State.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 10:14 pm to dgtiger3
That's fine but a human element won't ignore the defending champions are basically the same exact team as last year
Posted on 11/30/15 at 10:19 pm to dgtiger3
Great post. Two things you didn't mention that I think will have a negative impact on UNC is the South Carolina loss, and two FCS teams being scheduled. You don't think the committee will place any weight on those factors? I think they need to.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 10:39 pm to DisplacedBuckeye
The two FCS teams have clearly hurt UNC so far in the rankings so it is fair to think it will continue to do so. The more I look at it maybe my original post was a little stronger than it shouldve been. Ohio State will be #6 in the next poll tomorrow and UNC will have to be Top Ten to have any shot at jumping them. If they are #8 or #9 then OSU fans should probably start worrying, Tomorrow nights rankings should tell us a lot more.
The conference title is absolutely the Wildcard in the entire process because we don't truly know how much the committee values it.
North Carolina will jump Oklahoma State, Florida, and Michigan, and has an outside chance of jumping Florida State, Baylor, and Notre Dame.
The conference title is absolutely the Wildcard in the entire process because we don't truly know how much the committee values it.
North Carolina will jump Oklahoma State, Florida, and Michigan, and has an outside chance of jumping Florida State, Baylor, and Notre Dame.
Posted on 11/30/15 at 10:46 pm to dgtiger3
Two other thoughts,
If Stanford is #7 and Ohio State is #6 in tomorrow nights poll they absolutely have a shot to jump them with a Pac 12 Championship, even with 2 losses.
I expect Oklahoma to jump Alabama in tomorrows poll.
#1 Clemson, #2 Oklahoma, #3 Alabama, #4 Iowa
If Stanford is #7 and Ohio State is #6 in tomorrow nights poll they absolutely have a shot to jump them with a Pac 12 Championship, even with 2 losses.
I expect Oklahoma to jump Alabama in tomorrows poll.
#1 Clemson, #2 Oklahoma, #3 Alabama, #4 Iowa
Posted on 11/30/15 at 11:04 pm to TriumphTiger
Yes
Posted on 12/1/15 at 2:13 am to TriumphTiger
I think so
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