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re: Does UNC deserve a playoff spot if they beat Clemson?

Posted on 11/30/15 at 2:19 pm to
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
139841 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

Didn't someone discuss putting money on UNC to win it all and hedge it?


What were the odds? I would not have done it. I am terrible when it comes to sports wagering.
Posted by DisplacedBuckeye
Member since Dec 2013
71896 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

Not exactly because we scheduled two P5 OOC games this year. We will have played 11 games against P5 teams this year. There aren't many teams in the country that can say that. Also, while I wish we had played a Hawaii instead of FCS NC A&T, the latter would be favored against quite a few FBS teams including Hawaii (who Ohio State played).


You keep saying this, but you're contradicting yourself. You need to stop saying "P5 OOC" as if it's some great accomplishment. Call it what it was. South Carolina and Illinois. The worst team in the SEC and one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. UNC went 1-1 against that.

If you want to compare one of your FCS wins against Hawaii, I think it would be fair to compare NIU and Western Michigan to Illinois and South Carolina. Would you bet on either of those "P5 OOC" teams? I know I sure wouldn't.
Posted by DisplacedBuckeye
Member since Dec 2013
71896 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

No they wouldn't. OSU had 3 wins over top 25 teams to UNC's 1, and OSU had a road win over a top 10 team and beat the 13th ranked team by 60

How are those comparable?


Make sure that's directed at Kosmo, because I sure didn't say it.
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

No they wouldn't. OSU had 3 wins over top 25 teams to UNC's 1, and OSU had a road win over a top 10 team and beat the 13th ranked team by 60

How are those comparable?


At this point last year, Ohio State's SOS was 54th in the country. UNC's is 62nd in the country.

Ohio State went on to play #13 Wisconsin in the conference championship. UNC is about to play #1 Clemson.

Looks pretty comparable to me.
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

You keep saying this, but you're contradicting yourself. You need to stop saying "P5 OOC" as if it's some great accomplishment. Call it what it was. South Carolina and Illinois. The worst team in the SEC and one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. UNC went 1-1 against that.

If you want to compare one of your FCS wins against Hawaii, I think it would be fair to compare NIU and Western Michigan to Illinois and South Carolina. Would you bet on either of those "P5 OOC" teams? I know I sure wouldn't.


If you're not all caught up on labeling teams for what affiliations they have and just want to look at what they are, then you should quit calling NC A&T an FCS opponent because they're better than many FBS opponents. There goes your two FCS teams argument.
This post was edited on 11/30/15 at 2:37 pm
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164160 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

OU lost to Texas...so a bad loss can't be that bad for you if OU is making it...

Oklahoma beat Baylor, Oklahoma State, and TCU. Along with going on the road and playing a very decent Tennessee team OOC.

UNC will have hypothetically only beaten Clemson. And then there's the terrible OOC schedule.

It's really not comparable.
Posted by VABuckeye
Naples, FL
Member since Dec 2007
35561 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

then you should quit calling NC A&T an FCS opponent because they're better than many FBS opponents


Are they or are they not an FCS team?

Posted by Buckeye06
Member since Dec 2007
23128 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

At this point last year, Ohio State's SOS was 54th in the country. UNC's is 62nd in the country. Ohio State went on to play #13 Wisconsin in the conference championship. UNC is about to play #1 Clemson. Looks pretty comparable to me.


This is the same point I made in a thread with Bama fans about their SOS. A SOS which consists of #5, #8, #11 and then 9 below average teams would be worse than a SOS with 12 teams in the 30s and 40s. The first schedule is more difficult to get through with 0 or 1 losses
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Are they or are they not an FCS team?


Are S. Carolina and Illinois Power 5 OOC opponents or are they not?

That was the argument.
Posted by gobuxgo5
Member since Nov 2012
10028 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:26 pm to
Just be happy your bowling. The playing isn't for teams like UNC.
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

This is the same point I made in a thread with Bama fans about their SOS. A SOS which consists of #5, #8, #11 and then 9 below average teams would be worse than a SOS with 12 teams in the 30s and 40s. The first schedule is more difficult to get through with 0 or 1 losses


I agree with that line of thinking up until around #15 or so in the country. After the top 15-20, the differences in difficulty become more negligible through the 40s.
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

Just be happy your bowling. The playing isn't for teams like UNC.


Compelling. I'm sure you could have said the same about many teams that are now fixtures in the top 25 as they were starting their runs.

Good news for us is we look to be just as good, if not better, next year. Hope we get to play OSU as was planned somehow.
Posted by DisplacedBuckeye
Member since Dec 2013
71896 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

you should quit calling NC A&T an FCS opponent because they're better than many FBS opponents.


Source this.
Posted by DisplacedBuckeye
Member since Dec 2013
71896 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

Are S. Carolina and Illinois Power 5 OOC opponents or are they not?


They sure are. If you want to try to artificially inflate one of UNC's two FCS opponents, you better expect both of those "P5" opponents to get called out.
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76526 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:45 pm to
NC A&T is a borderline top 25 FCS team.

They are no North Dakota State
Posted by DisplacedBuckeye
Member since Dec 2013
71896 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

NC A&T is a borderline top 25 FCS team.

They are no North Dakota State


I agree. Even a win over North Dakota State wouldn't necessarily be impressive for a team supposedly competing for a spot in the CFP, but at least it wouldn't be a negative.

There's just no way to spin UNC's OOC into something impressive. It's only a little better than Baylor's last year, and look where it landed them.
Posted by ChunkyLover54
Member since Apr 2015
6529 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 3:59 pm to
Just for fun, here are the Sagaran Rankings for UNC's opponts:

USC: 71
NC A&T: 154
Illinois: 72
Delaware: 193
G Tech: 53
Wake: 93
UVA: 76
Pitt: 34
Duke: 57
Miami: 46
V Tech: 42
NC State: 47
Clemson: 4

So, Pitt is regarded as their best win, next to Clemson. They have the worst loss by a mile of any contenders--Texas is a bad loss but not as bad as USC.

I would have to see how it plays out. This is the scenario I envisioned when the committee declined to define a specific criteria. If a team like UNC gets in for essentially 1 big win and a horrible loss, it sets the opposite precedent of what was supposed to happen. If I'm a P-5 school, why schedule hard OOC games?

OOC scheduling could knock out Stanford. I bet they wish they played San Jose State or Cal Davis instead of Northwestern. If you're Stanford or any other P5 team, why schedule a game like that if it can only hurt you?
This post was edited on 11/30/15 at 4:18 pm
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

quote:
you should quit calling NC A&T an FCS opponent because they're better than many FBS opponents.


Source this.


Difficult because we were the only FBS team they played. The basis for me saying that was they are 10-2, and Vegas favorites are pretty closely aligned with Sagarin predictions. Along those lines, NC A&T would be favored against some FBS opponents (including Hawaii).

LINK
This post was edited on 11/30/15 at 4:04 pm
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 4:08 pm to
I'm not attempting to portray NC A&T as an impressive win for UNC. Only illustrating there's no difference in beating them vs. beating Hawaii, UCF, North Texas, etc.

If we had instead played an FBS bottom-feeder, the result would have been the same and this 'two FCS' talking point wouldn't have blown out of proportion. Great P5 OOC opponents or not, very few teams in the country will have played 11 teams from P5 conferences. Should we beat Clemson, a 12 game win streak should be enough.
Posted by EastCarolinaHeel
Member since Nov 2015
277 posts
Posted on 11/30/15 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

ChunkyLover54


Good post. I've thought all along that Stanford has a better argument than OSU, but both Stanford and UNC have another game that could spoil both team's cases. This whole debate could, and likely will, be irrelevant after Saturday.
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