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re: BCS Train Wreck This year?
Posted on 10/11/10 at 11:18 pm to Jaketigger
Posted on 10/11/10 at 11:18 pm to Jaketigger
my main 'fears' mainly have to do with the problems in the human polls.
simply put, 99% of movement in the polls is based on teams LOSING. lose and you move down. about the only way you can make a big move up is to beat the #1 team.
right now, ohio state is ranked #1 ahead of oregon, nebraska, oklahoma, boise and tcu BECAUSE it was ranked ahead of them in the preseason. however, most pollsters don't reshuffle on a weekly basis (or even look at the last 2-3 weeks)
i think OSU will win out. out of oregon, nebraska and OU, i think at least one will go undefeated.
that will leave a situation where those two teams are 1-2 in the human polls, with boise and tcu 3-4. an undefeated LSU is 5th in the human polls while at the same time being #1 in the computers and gets left out because of the distance.
as others have said, the 'not another sec' bias, plus the fact the same dumba--es put OSU in the polls every year, and that teams don't drop unless they lose.
and add in there the fact that auburn, arkansas, bama and usc will put losses on each other.
course, there is a lot of season left. maybe worrying too soon.
simply put, 99% of movement in the polls is based on teams LOSING. lose and you move down. about the only way you can make a big move up is to beat the #1 team.
right now, ohio state is ranked #1 ahead of oregon, nebraska, oklahoma, boise and tcu BECAUSE it was ranked ahead of them in the preseason. however, most pollsters don't reshuffle on a weekly basis (or even look at the last 2-3 weeks)
i think OSU will win out. out of oregon, nebraska and OU, i think at least one will go undefeated.
that will leave a situation where those two teams are 1-2 in the human polls, with boise and tcu 3-4. an undefeated LSU is 5th in the human polls while at the same time being #1 in the computers and gets left out because of the distance.
as others have said, the 'not another sec' bias, plus the fact the same dumba--es put OSU in the polls every year, and that teams don't drop unless they lose.
and add in there the fact that auburn, arkansas, bama and usc will put losses on each other.
course, there is a lot of season left. maybe worrying too soon.
1
Posted on 10/11/10 at 11:28 pm to lsusa
There is a lot of season left. My prediction for this year was extremely optimistic with LSU winning the West with an 11-1 record with a loss to Arkansas, but even THAT may have LSU on the outside looking in. We won't know until the end of the season.
That said, as I'm sure lsumatt would tell you, it isn't as simple as #1 and #2 in the human polls, it goes by the number of votes. There could be very little seperating the top teams if the votes are close, which would make SOS and the computer polls that much more important.
In truth, I would rather see a bunch of one-loss teams at the end of the season. That would give LSU a chance for a mulligan. Hopefully, they won't need it.
That said, as I'm sure lsumatt would tell you, it isn't as simple as #1 and #2 in the human polls, it goes by the number of votes. There could be very little seperating the top teams if the votes are close, which would make SOS and the computer polls that much more important.
In truth, I would rather see a bunch of one-loss teams at the end of the season. That would give LSU a chance for a mulligan. Hopefully, they won't need it.
Posted on 10/12/10 at 8:46 pm to Jaketigger
Undefeated MSU vs undefeated OSU with one loss SEC, Big 12, and PAC 10
Posted on 10/12/10 at 8:57 pm to ffishstik
quote:
I would say that it is likely that you will have at least 4 and potentially as many as 7 undefeated teams at the end of the year!
sigh. some folks always make these kinds of predictions at the halfway point. Then reality sets in.
It is a long season. History says at most 3 teams will wind up undefeated. And that will likely include only 1 BCS conference team.
Posted on 10/12/10 at 9:11 pm to AbitaFan08
quote:
That's what I'm saying. Having those two play each other for the NC would just solidify that a playoff system is needed so that these smaller teams will have to play some more competitive games to earn a spot in the championship.
I'm all for that.
If a Boise or TCU runs that postseason gauntlet, nobody can say they didn't earn it.
If they lose, they have to shut up.
Either way, the question was answered ON THE FIELD.
This post was edited on 10/12/10 at 9:12 pm
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