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Are the Rockets finally a legit title contender?
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:14 pm
Last night the Rockets beat the Cavs in an game that had a playoff feel to it. Harden, Lebron and Kyrie all looked great, and Harden looked worthy of the MVP.
We go back and forth here a lot, considering we have a lot of Rockets and Spurs fans with a ton of Pels fans and we talk a lot of shite, but is this the year that Houston is finally a legit contender? They made the WCF a couple of years ago and were the 2 seed, but I don't think many expected them to make the Finals. This year seems different with Golden State falling back to earth recently and the competitive games between the Rockets and Spurs. Do you think Houston is a legit championship contender?
We go back and forth here a lot, considering we have a lot of Rockets and Spurs fans with a ton of Pels fans and we talk a lot of shite, but is this the year that Houston is finally a legit contender? They made the WCF a couple of years ago and were the 2 seed, but I don't think many expected them to make the Finals. This year seems different with Golden State falling back to earth recently and the competitive games between the Rockets and Spurs. Do you think Houston is a legit championship contender?
22
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:15 pm to PortCityTiger24
If they can stay healthy, yes.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:16 pm to PortCityTiger24
quote:
Are the Rockets finally a legit title contender?
I see the odds at a fairly small % that they defeat GS, SAS, and CLE in 3 straight series. I'm guessing they have to beat those 3 in a row in that order or SAS/GS/CLE, I don't think there are many other legit scenarios, right?
If you put them in the 10% or so chance to win it all, does that make them legit? If so, my answer is yes. If not, no.
Unless I'm doing math wrong, just to paint a picture....even if you say they're 50% to beat each team, 50% in each series...wouldn't that put them at 12.5% to win it all? And I'm guessing that number averages below 50%, so i think 10% or slightly lower is a fair appraisal.
This post was edited on 3/13/17 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:17 pm to PortCityTiger24
Can't be giving away games like SAS like we did but in a 7 game series, I'm a believer.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:20 pm to PortCityTiger24
Believe it when I see it, in the playoffs quality possession and defense wins games and I've yet to see a D'Antoni team execute the above when it mattered.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:21 pm to idlewatcher
In
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:22 pm to shel311
quote:
I see the odds at a fairly small % that they defeat GS, SAS, and CLE in 3 straight series. I'm guessing they have to beat those 3 in a row in that order or SAS/GS/CLE, I don't think there are many other legit scenarios, right?
If you put them in the 10% or so chance to win it all, does that make them legit? If so, my answer is yes. If not, no.
I think that's pretty fair. I'd say about a 25% chance, but your scenario is likely correct. Possibly GS then SAS though.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:25 pm to TxWadingFool
quote:The biggie for me is that GS and SAS are 1st and 3rd in 3pt% defense. They were 1st and 2nd last season, so that's no fluke. I'd be really surprised if HOU can hit 3s consistently enough to win 4 games out of 7 against both of those teams while also playing the necessary defense(especially against GS) needed to win each series.
Believe it when I see it, in the playoffs quality possession and defense wins games and I've yet to see a D'Antoni team execute the above when it mattered.
If you consider the the top 4 teams in terms of chances to win in any order as GS/HOU/CLE/SAS, in terms of Drtg SAS is #1, GS is #2. HOU is #16, that's a problem. And yes, CLE is #21, but if we learned anything the last few years, it's that a Lebron James team has earned the right to overlook their regular season numbers, and they'll do just fine in the playoffs. And of course there's the obvious CLE playing in the East, so that alone really increases their shot at getting to the Finals,a nd thus winning it all as well.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:28 pm to MSMHater
quote:It's obviously tough when KD hurt. But assuming he's back at somewhere near 100% for round 2, I'd put it something like this(and if i did it again tomorrow, i'td be different, i'm just spitballing here)
I think that's pretty fair. I'd say about a 25% chance, but your scenario is likely correct. Possibly GS then SAS though.
CLE 40%(they're highest because of their route to the Finals, I still think GS is better and would beat them in the Finals)
GS - 35%
SAS - 20%
HOU - 5%
And i'm just rounding to 5s and 10s, I think you could easily bump up HOU to the 10% range if I didn't round the others and took them down a couple of points each, but not much higher IMO.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:29 pm to PortCityTiger24
They are in the mix for sure.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:30 pm to PortCityTiger24
All those words and the answer is still no
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:36 pm to PortCityTiger24
I have them in the same bucket as the Celtics and Wizard.
Real good, will put up a fight in the playoffs, but minimal title shot.
Real good, will put up a fight in the playoffs, but minimal title shot.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:41 pm to PortCityTiger24
they're legit contenders, but they need things to go perfectly for them. one injury bug and they're in the same boat as the other 3 (love-cleveland, durant-gs, and aldridge-sa)
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:41 pm to PortCityTiger24
No
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:48 pm to Toula
quote:
I have them in the same bucket as the Celtics and Wizard.
Real good, will put up a fight in the playoffs, but minimal title shot.
Guess that was my ?. In my mind, they have a better chance than both of those teams.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:49 pm to PortCityTiger24
Y'all are really workin overtime in the absence of Boom 
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:50 pm to Fus0623
Not really.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 4:59 pm to PortCityTiger24
Assuming healthy Durant, I got the gap b/t Cleveland and Bos/Was to be smaller than GS and SAS/Hou.
Houston needs GS to hang onto 1 seed. I like Rockets to take Spurs in a 7 gamer.
What % chance you thinking here? 5%, 10%?
What % makes someone "legit"?
Houston needs GS to hang onto 1 seed. I like Rockets to take Spurs in a 7 gamer.
quote:
In my mind, they have a better chance than both of those teams.
What % chance you thinking here? 5%, 10%?
What % makes someone "legit"?
Posted on 3/13/17 at 5:00 pm to PortCityTiger24
I definitely think y'all are legit contenders
If I'm skeptical about anything, it's Eric Gordon continuing to do what he has never really done before in his career.
If I'm skeptical about anything, it's Eric Gordon continuing to do what he has never really done before in his career.
Posted on 3/13/17 at 5:02 pm to Toula
If Spurs get the 1, and Utah stays at 4, I think the Jazz can take down Spurs.
Despite being a potential WCF team, I don't have them as a legit contender.
Despite being a potential WCF team, I don't have them as a legit contender.
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