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Started By
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re: Anthony Davis MVPs by 30 - O/U 1.5?
Posted on 4/21/15 at 12:53 pm to Boomshockalocka
Posted on 4/21/15 at 12:53 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:You're basically betting on AD never playing 75+ games in order for you to be right.
What "argument"? fwiw I'm not arguing with anybody, it's more like a lesson
Doesn't seem like a smart play, last 3 seasons worth of 60+ games included, just not a smart play at all.
1
Posted on 4/21/15 at 12:55 pm to lsu480
quote:Neither played at the level AD has this season, and in Walton's case, I'm not talking about injuries.
What about Dwight Howard? Bill Walton?
Yea, injuries can railroad AD and he can taper off his current production. And actually, injuries can be attributed to Howard as well.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:02 pm to shel311
Waltons 78 season was as good
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:03 pm to MSUbulldogs03
quote:
So you're already writing him off as one of the greatest big men of all-time who will have more MVP's than Shaq and as many as Duncan?
and as many as Steve Nash and Karl Malone and Moses Malone all of whom he is already better than. Y'all are cherry picking guys who happened to not win a lot for whatever reason. There are also players not nearly as good as he is conservatively projected to be who won more.
There are two players with better PERs than he achieved at 21 with his body not fully filled out. Lebron and Michael Jordan. They have 4 and 5 respectively. Dude might not win 2 MVPs but the precedents don't make it shocking either way. There's outliers on both sides and by smoothing the curve you find out that great players end up getting about the amount of MVPs you would expect.
We aren't in any danger of Kyle Lowry or Paul Milsap taking one over him like some of y'all are making it seem. If thats not how y'all are making it seem, whats the relevance of bringing up great players not winning them? We know there are lots of candidates. 2 in 8 years is a 25% rate. Seems pretty tame to me for the clear choice for #1 highest rated player if you average out projected play over the next 8 years.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:08 pm to shel311
Win shares per 48 is a better indicator of MVP success
It's help you reel in and put a guy like harden's numbers into perspective vs say curry
Harden was at the top of every counting stat in the league, his pure per game numbers are inflated
Minutes played
FGA
FG missed
FT attempts
3 PA
Assists
Steals
Turnovers
Points
Great year, lots of volume though
Curry is your win share per 48 leader
Shoots over 50% FG (13th in NBA)
44% on most 3 PA in the league (3rd in NBA)
4th in TS%
2nd in effective FG%
Harden Is only in the top 20 in one of those cats: Ts%
Shows how good curry has been
It's help you reel in and put a guy like harden's numbers into perspective vs say curry
Harden was at the top of every counting stat in the league, his pure per game numbers are inflated
Minutes played
FGA
FG missed
FT attempts
3 PA
Assists
Steals
Turnovers
Points
Great year, lots of volume though
Curry is your win share per 48 leader
Shoots over 50% FG (13th in NBA)
44% on most 3 PA in the league (3rd in NBA)
4th in TS%
2nd in effective FG%
Harden Is only in the top 20 in one of those cats: Ts%
Shows how good curry has been
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:12 pm to Solo
quote:
So would Morey. And every other GM for that matter.
Good luck trying to prove that bubbPosted on 4/21/15 at 1:14 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Actually the better correlation is win shares. This year will be no different.
Yup. Good point. But over the course of a 8 year sample, PER is the best predictor of MVPs. Injuries can eliminate the favorite any given year whereas a lower PER potential leaves you at the mercy of you being more healthy than other players.
Is AD injury prone? I think so. He's kind of soft about getting banged up but he doesn't exhibit bad knees or anything that would scare you about missing huge chunks. But he just has so much PER potential that its just a matter of finding a couple of injury-light years. I would project him playing 65-77 games per year and the years where he plays 75+, he should be the favorite for the MVP candidate(starting in 2 years if not next year- might need another Lebron birthday party)
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:14 pm to shel311
quote:
You're basically betting on AD never playing 75+ games in order for you to be right.
Doesn't seem like a smart play,
It's very smart. He has NEVER shown the ability to stay on the court for a full season, usually guys don't become UN injury prone all of a sudden. Especially 7 footers.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:14 pm to Solo
quote:
Boom would swap Harden for AD so fast it would make everyone's head F'ing explode.
So would Morey. And every other GM for that matter.
If the Rockets traded Harden for Davis, they would be completely fricked. Harden fits Houston much better than Davis.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:17 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:yeah, i'm guessing he meant to start a build around. they have built the team around harden and have established a contender, swapping them would set them back at least temporarily.
If the Rockets traded Harden for Davis, they would be completely fricked. Harden fits Houston much better than Davis.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:17 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Shoots over 50% FG (13th in NBA)
44% on most 3 PA in the league (3rd in NBA)
4th in TS%
2nd in effective FG%
Harden Is only in the top 20 in one of those cats: Ts%
All of these are only a portion of stats like VORP and Win shares, Stats that Harden wrecked shop in. The stats you pulled are equivalent of saying a player shouldn't win the MVP because they are only top 20 in doubles, but not top 20 in HRs or Triples when they have the best OPS in the L.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:18 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:Harden and goatbrook won me my fantasy league. I support harden for MVP
Stats that Harden wrecked shop in
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:23 pm to Fearthehat0307
Next year when HOU wins 60+ he'll get the award as a reward for a 2 yr run of dominance. Curry's gonna win it I don't think it will be really close. If GSW hd won less than 65 games and Harden had beateb the Spurs on that game winner that the reg season refs blew it may have been different.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:29 pm to Boomshockalocka
I used wins shares per 48 
Curry has a better vorp too
There is no problem here since you agree curry is the mvp
Curry has a better vorp too
There is no problem here since you agree curry is the mvp
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:29 pm to slackster
There are so many talented players in the league right now, but I really do think he gets the over, especially if he stays with NO.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:30 pm to Boomshockalocka
Dats a lot of "ifs", "whens" "mays" and "hads"
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:30 pm to GynoSandberg
Yea there were a few guys who were saying Harden was their MVP late in the year changed votes in the last week of the season. Simmons, Jalen Rose, etc.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:31 pm to rondo
Harden is the better player, Curry had the better regular season team. Hard to pass on Curry on a 67 win team.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:31 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:
If the Rockets traded Harden for Davis, they would be completely fricked. Harden fits Houston much better than Davis
Right now. But not for their future.
Posted on 4/21/15 at 1:34 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Harden is the better player,
it's cute....your denial
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