- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: A look back at the 49ers trade of Alex smith
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:49 pm to BayouBengals03
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:49 pm to BayouBengals03
Well I will say this: Even if Kaep and Smith are = QBs, 49ers still made a great trade. Got a bunch of picks and saved $$$ by starting a guy that isnt better or worse than Smith. But, they are gonna be in trouble when they pay him.
But I dont think Kaep will win a SB either. Especially if they didnt win 1 these past 2 seasons. I just dont see him improving that much as a QB. He is what he is. His legs wont be there forever either.
Plus, even though they have some solid young guys that have never played in the NFL, that D wont play at this high of a level forever. Willis is 29, Bowman is coming off a major knee injury, and the most important player on their DL is Justin Smith and hes 34. Aldon Smith is 1 retard move away from being locked up, either in jail, looney bin, another stint in rehab, etc.
I think the 49ers have been at their peak these last 2 years, and dont have that many more seasons at it. Especially when Justin Smith slows down. We will see though. They certainly are 1 of those teams that are just flat out interesting IMO. Not a huge fan, but they are an interesting team, with a unique QB and head coach.
But I dont think Kaep will win a SB either. Especially if they didnt win 1 these past 2 seasons. I just dont see him improving that much as a QB. He is what he is. His legs wont be there forever either.
Plus, even though they have some solid young guys that have never played in the NFL, that D wont play at this high of a level forever. Willis is 29, Bowman is coming off a major knee injury, and the most important player on their DL is Justin Smith and hes 34. Aldon Smith is 1 retard move away from being locked up, either in jail, looney bin, another stint in rehab, etc.
I think the 49ers have been at their peak these last 2 years, and dont have that many more seasons at it. Especially when Justin Smith slows down. We will see though. They certainly are 1 of those teams that are just flat out interesting IMO. Not a huge fan, but they are an interesting team, with a unique QB and head coach.
2
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:51 pm to KG5989
quote:
Well I will say this: Even if Kaep and Smith are = QBs, 49ers still made a great trade. Got a bunch of picks and saved $$$ by starting a guy that isnt better or worse than Smith. But, they are gonna be in trouble when they pay him.
Agreed.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:51 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
traditional QB rating is much, much better
We will just have to disagree. I work with statistics / data analytics on a daily basis, and the nerd in me and my co-workers have enjoyed breaking down the QBR.
Traditional QB rating system is too easily inflated by short passes, YAC, it doesn't consider the down/distance, the score, or point in time of the play as it relates to the game.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:52 pm to burdman
yeah it was a great trade for both teams
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:53 pm to KG5989
quote:
ut, they are gonna be in trouble when they pay him.
This scares me the most. He doesn't deserve a $15 million / year deal at this point. Neither does Wilson IMO.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:53 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
yeah it was a great trade for both teams
It was.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:55 pm to tigerman03
quote:
frick San Fran
Posted on 5/12/14 at 4:58 pm to schexyoung
quote:
it doesn't consider the down/distance, the score, or point in time of the play as it relates to the game.
this is the opposite of "impartial", just fwiw. adjusting scoring based on subjective variables is quite partial
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:01 pm to Nonetheless
Hyde may be a beast there, it's the perfect fit anyway. I reserving judgment on Kaep. I'm not a Niners fan/hater but the pass he threw off of one foot to Boldin in the NFC title game was unreal. He must've found the weight gain powder in the fridge, I used to laugh at how his helmet looked three sizes too big at Nevada.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:20 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
this is the opposite of "impartial", just fwiw. adjusting scoring based on subjective variables is quite partial
Selecting variables to measure and give weight to a population from the onset may incur some testing bias. The "impartial" I was referring to, was the bias that everyone has for their favorite/least favorite QBs.
QBR does a much better job of selecting and weighing critical variables from the onset. Comparatively, the traditional QB rating takes a very limited snap shot and uses variables that don't correlate as well to performance.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 5:22 pm
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:26 pm to schexyoung
quote:
QBR
quote:
The QBR does a great job of analyzing impact of performance under various conditions.
quote:
We will just have to disagree. I work with statistics / data analytics on a daily basis, and the nerd in me and my co-workers have enjoyed breaking down the QBR.
Since you are a stat nerd that likes to break this joke of a rating down, explain a few of these to me:
Earlier this season, Thaddeus Lewis had a game against the Bengals where he went 19 of 32, for 216 yards, 2 TDs, (both of which were in the 4th quarter and forced OT), and had 0 INTs.
Those stats are good enough for a traditional passer rating rating of 100.5. And that doesn't take into account his 17 yards of total rushing and another TD on the ground.
But ESPN's shite-tarded stat gave him a QBR of 16.2.
And then a couple of years ago, this shite happened:
quote:
ESPN’s QBR stat puts Tebow ahead of Rodgers
I’ll unignore the Total QBR long enough to point out that I have found justification for ignoring it: Under the Total QBR, Tim Tebow performed better on Sunday than Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers, whose Packers won at the Georgia Dome, completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns. His Total QBR was 82.1.
Tebow, whose Broncos lost at home to the Chargers, completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. And he ran the ball six times for 38 yards and a touchdown. And his Total QBR was 83.2.
And lets not forget that the highest rated QBR game by a NFL QB belongs to Charlie Batch, for this game right here:
LINK
12 of 17, 186 yards, 3 TDs, (not a single one in the 2nd half) and 2 INTs
5 Rushes, 26 Yards, and 0 TDs
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:33 pm to SPEEDY
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:34 pm to SPEEDY
i know you have that copied and pasted, so i'm glad you saw this thread. i threw out the SPEEDY signal 
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:36 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
i know you have that copied and pasted, so i'm glad you saw this thread.
That a combo of 2 posts from 2 different threads
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:36 pm to SPEEDY
It's not perfect and there will always be data outliers. Hopefully those outliers continue to decrease as the model is adjusted.
Unfortunately, ESPN won't release their proprietary formula / calculation.... so it is difficult to respond to specific situations.
Even at this stage it's much more representative of the QB performance than the traditional model once you remove the outliers.
Unfortunately, ESPN won't release their proprietary formula / calculation.... so it is difficult to respond to specific situations.
Even at this stage it's much more representative of the QB performance than the traditional model once you remove the outliers.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:39 pm to schexyoung
QBR is what ESPN uses to get their average media darlings to the top of a chart.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:39 pm to schexyoung
how do you "break down" the tQBR when you don't have the formula to analyze?
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:48 pm to SlowFlowPro
A better response...
When attempting to make a subjective comparison (QB to QB) over data (stats) and then indexing the results (ranking), some funky outliers always occur due to the subjective nature of selecting and weighing variables. The goal is not to get a 100% accurate model, as that is likely not cost effective or in some cases possible. You could easily have a 100% accurately ranked analysis that only used total passing yards. While this would be accurate in a sense, it would not be a complete representation of the QB performance. Instead, you desire to build a model to better compare and analysis the factors that determine QB performance. However, this will also increase the number of variables and the subjectivity of the analysis. As with any model of this nature, a certain tolerable error rate is accepted as a sacrifice.
When attempting to make a subjective comparison (QB to QB) over data (stats) and then indexing the results (ranking), some funky outliers always occur due to the subjective nature of selecting and weighing variables. The goal is not to get a 100% accurate model, as that is likely not cost effective or in some cases possible. You could easily have a 100% accurately ranked analysis that only used total passing yards. While this would be accurate in a sense, it would not be a complete representation of the QB performance. Instead, you desire to build a model to better compare and analysis the factors that determine QB performance. However, this will also increase the number of variables and the subjectivity of the analysis. As with any model of this nature, a certain tolerable error rate is accepted as a sacrifice.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 5:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
how do you "break down" the tQBR when you don't have the formula to analyze?
By making certain assumptions and testing assertions for positive/negative correlations.
If we were getting paid, we probably could get close.
Do we know all the variables? No. Do we know exactly how they are weighted? No. However, its not difficult to determine this model captures more representative information than the traditional model.
ESPN has done a bad job of rolling this analytic out.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 6:00 pm to Mr. Wayne
quote:That might make sense if not for the fact that his second half last year was far superior than his first, implying growth and improvement. He and the Niners were about as hot as anyone down the stretch. He also, despite the ultimately untimely turnovers, was one of the few who did shite against Seattle in the NFCCG - the OL and the running game wasn't doing shite. The idea of an Alex Smith possibly playing well in such an environment is comical, as will undoubtedly be revealed this coming regular season. With as much as they press, there would be no where to check down to.
Kap sucks. Teams struggled at first with him because their offense changed with a running QB. Once they figure it out, his production has drastically dropped off.
Back to OP, Baalke doing work as usual.
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 6:05 pm
Page 3 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News