25 years of Baseball HOF predictions by Bill James in 1994

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1995

Bill’s prediction: Mike Schmidt and Jim Rice
Actual: Mike Schmidt

Interesting that Bill thought Jim Rice would sail into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He did not — Rice got less than 30 percent of the vote that first year, and his Hall of Fame election turned out to be a long and semi-contentious deal. It took Rice the full 15 years to garner the 75 percent necessary for election.

1996

Bill’s prediction: Don Sutton and Pete Rose
Actual: Nobody

Sutton was elected two years later. Rose, well, that story has been told.

1997

Bill’s Prediction: Steve Garvey and Phil Niekro
Actual: Phil Niekro

1998

Bill’s prediction: Gary Carter and Al Oliver
Actual: Don Sutton

1999

Bill’s prediction: Nolan Ryan and George Brett
Actual: Nolan Ryan, George Brett, and Robin Yount.

Nailed it.

2000

Bill’s prediction: Robin Yount and Carlton Fisk
Actual: Carlton Fisk and Tony Perez

2001

Predictions: Andre Dawson and Dave Winfield
Actual: Dave Winfield and Kirby Puckett

Pretty good guesswork on Bill’s part predicting when Winfield would retire. Bill also predicted that Puckett would get elected, but he did not foresee that Kirby’s career would end abruptly when he lost vision in his right eye.

Dawson did not get on the ballot until the next year. He was not a first-ballot inductee as the Monitor suggested. Dawson languished on the ballot for a few years before getting elected in 2010.

2002

Predictions: Eddie Murray and Ozzie Smith
Actual: Ozzie Smith

Eddie Murray stuck around one year longer than Bill predicted.

2003

Predictions: Dave Parker and Jim Kaat
Actual: Eddie Murray and Gary Carter

Bill saw a down year in 2003. He thought Murray and Carter would be elected, and that would give the BBWAA a chance to elect more marginal candidates Parker and Kaat.

2004

Predictions: Dennis Eckersley and Ted Simmons
Actual: Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor

Another great prediction by Bill on Dennis Eckersley. Bill was two years early on Molitor, who just kept going and going; Molitor played through age 41.

2005

Predictions: Wade Boggs and Cal Ripken
Actual: Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg

Bill was just a little early on Ripken and a little late on Sandberg; he did not see Sandberg going in until 2010.

2006

Predictions: Rickey Henderson and Paul Molitor
Actual: Bruce Sutter

I still find the Bruce Sutter election to be one of the most bizarre in recent BBWAA history. Look, Sutter was a fantastic reliever, but his vote is so out of line with the rest of the BBWAA’s voting record. Dan Quisenberry has an almost identical career value, and he got 18 total votes.

2007

Predictions: Tony Gwynn and Roger Clemens
Actual: Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken

Well, this is pretty telling: Bill predicted Clemens would be eligible for election in 2007. He wasn’t actually eligible until 2013, six years later. Clemens had an unprecedented run at the end of his career for all the reasons that you will have strong feelings about.

Even without that run, though, it was obvious that Clemens was a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

2008

Predictions: Kirby Puckett and Dale Murphy
Actual: Goose Gossage

Bill predicted Gossage would go into the Hall, but not until 2014.

I think Murphy’s Hall of Fame case should have been every bit as compelling as Jim Rice’s. But it wasn’t. Maybe people could not forget the image of Murphy’s sad final days (Rice retired fairly young). Maybe Murphy’s lousy teams hurt him. Whatever the reason, Rice kept growing bigger in people’s minds. And Murphy, a great player and person, grew smaller.

2009

Predictions: Jack Morris and Lee Smith
Actual: Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice

Again, Bill saw a lull coming having predicted that Rice and Henderson would have been elected years earlier. Morris and Smith both got 44 percent of the vote but neither quite built up to 75 percent.

2010

Predictions: Tim Raines and Ryne Sandberg
Actual: Andre Dawson

2011

Predictions: Barry Bonds and Joe Carter
Actual: Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven

This is where we get to the fun predictions, the ones Bill was guessing about players very early in their careers. Barry Bonds was just 29 years old when Bill made this prediction, but this wasn’t hard: Bonds had already won three MVP awards.

Joe Carter, meanwhile, was 34 and coming off his eighth 100 RBI season in nine years. The RBIs told his story. Carter was a .263 hitter at the time with a .309 on-base percentage. He was not a great fielder. But he was good for 30 homers and 100 RBIs just about every year, and he had his time as a stolen base threat, and there was a strong feeling he would just keep compiling those numbers and get himself elected. I can recall hearing the phrase “future Hall of Famer” when referring to Joe Carter.

It didn’t work out that way. His career petered out, and he got just 3.8 percent of the vote his one year on the ballot.

2012

Predictions: Brett Butler and David Cone
Actual: Barry Larkin

Bill and I are both avowed Brett Butler fans; we just love the way the guy played. I suspect Bill put him on here for fun.

Barry Larkin was barely starting when Bill put this book together.

2013

Predictions: Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker
Actual: Nobody

How much better would it have been if the BBWAA in 2013, instead of electing nobody, had elected Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker?

2014

Predictions: Goose Gossage and Don Mattingly
Actual: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas

Bill foresaw the election of Greg Maddux and Thomas, even though it was very early in their careers. Gossage was elected earlier than Bill expected.

2015

Predictions: Jack McDowell and Greg Maddux
Actual: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio

It would have been pretty impressive if Bill had predicted any of those four who were elected. Johnson had turned 31 years old, and he was 81-62 with a 3.70 ERA when the book was written. He had not yet won any of his five Cy Young Awards (though he did lead the league in strikeouts for three straight years).

Pedro was 22 years old and had only made 26 career starts.

Smoltz was a three-time All-Star, but his career won-loss record was just 78-75, and he was coming off his worst season.

Biggio was coming off his first terrific season, where he led the league in doubles and stolen bases and won a Gold Glove. Bill would later become Biggio’s most vocal supporter.

2016

Predictions: Fred McGriff and Dwight Gooden
Actual: Ken Griffey and Mike Piazza

Bill did predict Griffey’s election to the Hall, but not until 2018. He had a shot to pick Piazza, but it would have been an amazing guess. Piazza won rookie of the year in 1993 and hit .319 with 24 homers in 1994.

2017

Bill’s Prediction: Frank Thomas and Ruben Sierra
My prediction: Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, and Trevor Hoffman

Ruben Sierra? Well, he was a bold pick in 1994. Sierra was still 28 years old, and he had more than 1,400 career hits, which is more than Derek Jeter would have at the same age. Sierra also had 200 home runs, which is about as many as Barry Bonds had through age 28.

Unfortunately, Sierra never had even a passable season after age 28. He had negative WAR seasons every year but one.

2018

Bill’s Prediction: Ken Griffey Jr. and Roberto Alomar
My prediction: Chipper Jones and Curt Schilling

I have to believe this Schilling madness will end sooner rather than later.

2019

Bill’s prediction: Jeff Bagwell and Juan Gonzalez
My prediction: Mariano Rivera, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jim Thome, Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Mussina and Edgar Martinez.

Well, a guy can dream, can’t he?

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