100 Greatest NFL QBs of all-time according to Football Perspective

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1. Peyton Manning

Pretty clearly the greatest statistical quarterback of all time, and for me personally, the most visually impressive and fun to watch, but also a pioneer who changed the way the position is played. Everything Tom Brady and Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers do well, Manning did first.

I’ve described the Brady-Manning debate as religious: people believe that one or the other is better, in a way that forms part of their self-identity. From that perspective, disagreements can not derive from weighting variables differently or from reasonable disagreement, and people on the other side are accused of bias. I don’t entirely exclude myself from that. It’s very hard for me to understand pro-Brady arguments without linking them to a pre-existing preference for that outcome. Maybe I’m doing the same thing on the other side, without realizing it.

But I’m not a Colts fan, or an AFC East rival, or a Vol or a Buckeye. I don’t especially like Tom Brady — he doesn’t seem like a nice person — but I don’t especially like Peyton Manning, either. Dan Marino seems to make enemies more easily than friends. I rank Fran Tarkenton much higher than most people, and I have problems with him, too. Maybe I’m wrong about these guys; I’ve never met them and I could probably be persuaded that they’re great people. But there’s no reason for me to artificially downgrade Brady so I can boost one or more of the others.

I believe that Super Bowl wins are a team stat, not an individual stat. I think that Joe Montana and Bart Starr were better postseason players than Brady. I think Manning’s personnel advantages are insufficient to explain his vastly superior regular-season statistics and postseason honors (All-Pro, etc.), and I’m not aware of meaningful evidence that domed stadiums have a major influence on passing statistics. Perhaps I have misjudged one or more of those factors, but this ranking is based on what I think, not what I feel.

2. Tom Brady
3. Otto Graham
4. Dan Marino
5. Johnny Unitas
6. Joe Montana

Three years ago, I ranked Tom Brady 7th. I stand by that ranking. At the time, Brady had four 2,000-TSP seasons, five 1,800-TSP seasons, and six 1,600-TSP seasons. Those are excellent numbers, but they don’t compare to Manning (10, 13, 14), Marino (7, 9, 11), Montana (7, 8, 8), Unitas (7, 8, 8), or even Graham (5, 7, 8), who played only 10 professional seasons. Brady’s teams had won four Super Bowls, and I ranked him significantly higher than Terry Bradshaw or Bart Starr, who had similar championship résumés and superior postseason stats.

Since then, however, Brady has had three great seasons (he’s up to 5, 8, 9 in the counts above) and played well in two more Super Bowls. He’s played twice as many games as Graham, and he’s done more than Montana with fewer weapons.

7. Fran Tarkenton

If I included Sammy Baugh in these rankings, he’d rate about the same as Tarkenton. I didn’t include Baugh or his peers in this ranking, though, because it’s almost apples to oranges. Baugh played under different rules, in an era with different offensive philosophies, and he had to play 60 minutes. He was a standout defensive back and the best punter of his era. Purely as an offensive player, I think he’s in the same ballpark as Tarkenton, but it’s a difficult comparison to make with any confidence, because their situations were so different and there’s so little film of Baugh.

8. Steve Young
9. Drew Brees
10. Brett Favre

Because he succeeded Joe Montana, Steve Young’s consistent record of winning games, and his historic performance in Super Bowl XXIX, tend to get glossed over. The 49ers went 91-33 in games started by Young (.740), compared to 100-39 (.719) for Montana. In his lone Super Bowl start, Young passed for 325 yards and 6 TDs, plus he led all rushers with five runs for 49 yards.

At the same time, those of us interested in analytics sometimes get carried away praising Young. He was not impressive with the USFL’s L.A. Express, or with the Buccaneers. In Tampa, Young’s teams went 3-16; he threw twice as many INTs as TDs and had a 63.1 passer rating. There’s an argument to be made that he was a product of the 49ers’ system and personnel. Young’s teams were successful in the postseason (8-5), but never won a playoff game on the road, and repeatedly suffered disappointing home losses. Young’s Niners went 1-2 in the playoffs against Dallas and 1-3 against Green Bay — five of those seven games were in San Francisco — with Young held below a 70 passer rating in all four games against the Packers.

11. Roger Staubach
12. John Elway
13. Sonny Jurgensen
14. Norm Van Brocklin
15. Warren Moon
16. Aaron Rodgers
17. Dan Fouts
18. Bobby Layne
19. Bart Starr
20. Terry Bradshaw
21. Y.A. Tittle

There have been 13 or 14 first-ballot HOF modern-era QBs: Bobby Layne, Bart Starr, Johnny Unitas, George Blanda (QB/K), Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, and Brett Favre. Aikman is the only one rated below this tier. Of the nine players in or above this tier who were not first-ballot HOFers, four are not yet eligible (Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers) and one retired before the Hall of Fame opened but was quickly inducted, with his status never really in doubt (Graham). The others are Tarkenton (3rd ballot), Jurgensen (4th), Van Brocklin (6th), and Tittle (2nd). Among those four, only Van Brocklin ever won a professional championship. The voters put a lot of weight on team success, though this is somewhat less true than it used to be. Fouts was the first opening-ballot Hall of Fame QB without multiple league titles.

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