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re: What is a good way to get into the stock market

Posted on 2/1/17 at 9:15 pm to
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18883 posts
Posted on 2/1/17 at 9:15 pm to
If memory serves, WATT, NTDOY, and BAYRY? What else?

Do you like Nintendo at $25 again?
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28536 posts
Posted on 2/1/17 at 10:19 pm to
quote:

Do you like Nintendo at $25 again?




Based simply on how the stock has moved over the past several years and its current trend, I'd probably want it to get to sub $22 before getting back in. Nintendo is a unique company, and not an easy one to valuate. I feel like I could research the stock for weeks and do all types of financial analysis but still feel like the research is essentially worthless due to how the stock moves.

For example, NTDOY has an astronomical P/E of 64, but they have net cash of $1 for every $4 of market cap. When you take all that cash into account, the P/E is more like 44, which still seems high for a company that's been around forever.

But then you think where is Nintendo going that could warrant such a high P/E ratio? Is the new console, the Nintendo Switch, the next Wii? Nintendo stock nearly tripled after the release of the Wii. Even if the Switch gets a quarter of the hype, love, and revenue that the Wii got, it could send the stock soaring. But you have to remember the Switch could possibly eat into one of Nintendo's existing money makers, the 3DS.

We saw a fire get lit under NTDOY by Pokemon Go. Nintendo is going to be releasing several more mobile games over the next few years. Doesn't seem like Mario Run has rec'd anywhere close to the hype Pokemon Go did, so are mobile games going to bring in truckloads of cash or are they supplemental income? Place your bets...

Nintendo is trying to get into animated movies, or at least licensing its IP for animated movies. Are they going to be big hits like Angry Birds and Lego Movie? Good chance if they are done well, but how much do you want to bet that it's going to lead to a franchise of movies versus a one or two shot attempt that fails?

One thing for certain is that NTDOY's current management wants to losen up its grip on its IP to chase revenue streams through licensing. That's only good news for stockholders.

Nintendo recently revised its articles of incorporation to include "development, manufacturing and sale of medical devices and health devices..." What exactly is up their sleeve? For a technology company that spends somewhere around $500 million a year on R&D and still sits on boat loads of cash, you have to imagine that they're sitting on a gold mine or two. Or maybe not...

So back to your question, I look more at how the stock has moved through history in context of what was happening at the time and not really at their financials (although I certainly take at look at them). Based on that and what my gut tells me, I would want a little more of a discount than $25. Who knows though, don't let my gut stop you. I would not be totally shocked if NTDOY closed 2017 above $40.
This post was edited on 2/1/17 at 10:34 pm
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28536 posts
Posted on 2/1/17 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

WATT, NTDOY, and BAYRY? What else?


Honda (HMC) was the only other stock I've traded so far.

Posted by Hawgnsincebirth55
Gods country
Member since Sep 2016
16007 posts
Posted on 2/1/17 at 11:04 pm to
Thank you. My main question is what types of places would be good to start studying the market on a daily basis? Is there a website I can go to or anything or YouTube channel
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