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What do we see next, S&P 500 at 6000 or 4000?
Posted on 2/6/24 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 2/6/24 at 1:54 pm
With major earnings out of the way, I do not see any bad news on the horizon or anything around the corner that could derail this market. Positive earnings from META, AMZN, NVDA. Do the 493 other companies catch up to the Mag 7 or do the Mag 7 run out of steam? Looks like nothing but up. Fear greed index is at 73. With that said, isn't that usually how a crash happens?
Time in the market beats timing the market. The next 5000 move is up. There, I said it so you don't have to. I am just curious where everyone sees this playing out this year.
Time in the market beats timing the market. The next 5000 move is up. There, I said it so you don't have to. I am just curious where everyone sees this playing out this year.
9
Posted on 2/6/24 at 1:59 pm to wizard of smart
I think we see it at 6,000 by mid-to-late 25
*I have no clue what I'm talking about though
*I have no clue what I'm talking about though
Posted on 2/6/24 at 2:20 pm to wizard of smart
Biden election bump to 6000 incoming
Posted on 2/6/24 at 2:43 pm to wizard of smart
Regardless - I'm buying.
Posted on 2/6/24 at 3:18 pm to wizard of smart
As a saver, I’d rather see 4,000 first. Hell, give me 3,000 or lower.
However, I think 6,000 is slightly more likely than 4,000 again.
However, I think 6,000 is slightly more likely than 4,000 again.
Posted on 2/6/24 at 4:12 pm to wizard of smart
S&P has already posted 7-8 record highs this year I think. This is immediately after a full recovery from a 2 year downturn.
Anything is possible but a strong year is looking far more likely than another big dump at this point.
Anything is possible but a strong year is looking far more likely than another big dump at this point.
Posted on 2/6/24 at 6:46 pm to SM1010
How do we explain the current economy? Everything points to a downturn, yet the market keeps blowing the wheels off. Is it that the economy is just more resilient than public monetary policy?
The people investing in the market are surely a different group than those struggling week to week and maybe investors are investing more to stay ahead of inflation? The market just hasn’t made any logical sense in the last 3 years.
The people investing in the market are surely a different group than those struggling week to week and maybe investors are investing more to stay ahead of inflation? The market just hasn’t made any logical sense in the last 3 years.
Posted on 2/6/24 at 7:06 pm to WhiskeyThrottle
quote:
The people investing in the market are surely a different group than those struggling week to week and maybe investors are investing more to stay ahead of inflation?
Yes, the market has grown rapidly because of inflation and corporate profits increases. Most people do not profit off the market in their daily lives (mostly in retirement accounts) so they don’t feel the effects of stock market increases. They feel the effects of inflation far more
Posted on 2/6/24 at 7:33 pm to wizard of smart
There are no real market forces with the Fed backstopping the economy. Wall Street is a casino. Just keep placing your bets and it will work out.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 8:29 am to WhiskeyThrottle
quote:
Everything points to a downturn,
What economic indicators are currently pointing to a downturn?
Posted on 2/7/24 at 9:35 am to TejasHorn
Inflation, Credit Card debt climbing, foreclosures, CC defaults, Vehicle repossessions on the rise, large corporations laying off. You know, all the things that commonly happen in a downturned economy.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 2:27 pm to wizard of smart
quote:
What do we see next, S&P 500 at 6000 or 4000?
Looks like it's going to top out at 4999.71 today. Crazy close.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 3:04 pm to WhiskeyThrottle
Inflation isn't a symptom of a downturn. It’s often the opposite.
Personal debt is very high right now, thanks to stagnant wages but also people spending like drunken sailors.
As far as layoffs, the same companies turn around and hire for other divisions if we want to be anecdotal about it. Across the economy as a whole the labor market remains tight with some sector exceptions.
Not trying to say anyone is doing a great job here, but we appear to be more on the upswing of a business cycle than a downswing. As tepid as it may feel.
Personal debt is very high right now, thanks to stagnant wages but also people spending like drunken sailors.
As far as layoffs, the same companies turn around and hire for other divisions if we want to be anecdotal about it. Across the economy as a whole the labor market remains tight with some sector exceptions.
Not trying to say anyone is doing a great job here, but we appear to be more on the upswing of a business cycle than a downswing. As tepid as it may feel.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 5:35 pm to wizard of smart
6000 most likely. The next time we see 4000 will be on the way down past it. No one will predict it, some stupid event in some other country will cause it, and we'll all be holding the bag because of it.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 5:48 pm to WhiskeyThrottle
quote:
The market just hasn’t made any logical sense in the last 3 years.
I remember a friend once saying off handedly that the market has become totally detached from reality for years now. I think about that a lot.
I was pretty bearish for the last two years and finally accepted that I'm missing out on more gains by simply sitting on cash than buying in, seeing gains, facing a market dip, and getting the gains back in the long run.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 6:58 pm to Thundercles
Since the consensus seems to be that the market is going to keep ripping and many are becoming smug about it, I'll say 4000.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 1:13 pm to wizard of smart
Going for record high #10 of 2024 already.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 3:10 pm to Thundercles
quote:
quote:
The market just hasn’t made any logical sense in the last 3 years.
I remember a friend once saying off handedly that the market has become totally detached from reality for years now. I think about that a lot
As long as there is payroll, there will be large sums of new money being dumped into the market each week.
And those large sums are inflation adjusted (a benchmark on deposits this year is much easier than that same benchmark 10 years ago).
The only thing slowing that down would be unemployment, and we don't have an unemployment problem.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 6:28 pm to TejasHorn
quote:
Personal debt is very high right now, thanks to stagnant wages but also people spending like drunken sailors
Consumer CC is something like 3% higher than it was pre-Covid. Wages are up substantially since 2020. Household wealth is at all time high. People are spending as we can see from various industry reports. Retail and services both doing very well. People are obviously very confident about their economic situation despite the anecdotal accounts on the various TD boards that members can’t afford cheez-its, milk, and bread.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 7:46 pm to WhiskeyThrottle
quote:
The market just hasn’t made any logical sense in the last 3 years.
Try the last 15 years. The equities market is driven by buyers who are not considering economic factors when transacting.
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