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Message
re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale oil well sets record (for TMS) - 1540
Posted on 3/11/14 at 5:25 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Posted on 3/11/14 at 5:25 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Who owns the land has absolutely nothing to do with where they decide to drill. Those decisions are made after very detailed analysis of the seismic data, surface access, mineral rights, existing infrastructure, existing contracts, etc, etc.
Because one location is sutiable for drilling does not mean the place next to it is. There is very little drilling going on in a very large area. The chance they will drill on your property is remote.
Because one location is sutiable for drilling does not mean the place next to it is. There is very little drilling going on in a very large area. The chance they will drill on your property is remote.
This post was edited on 3/11/14 at 5:29 pm
1
Posted on 3/11/14 at 9:18 pm to Beerinthepocket
quote:
A few of the wells in the TMS are on my property and I can tell you from what I have seen personally, the play does work.
I just wanted to address a few things in this thread. For shale plays to work, the wells have to be highly predictable and duplicatable. They have to become cookie cutter in nature, or E&Ps waste a lot of time and resources trying to figure something out. Areas have to be de-risked, and once that happens, companies can high grade areas, drill the sweet spots, and focus on reducing costs to get better returns.
This play doesn't work in its current state. If it did, the best of the best like EOG would be moving in with a lot of resources. Instead they are deploying capital elsewhere. It's for another time when technology finds a way to make it work, or oil prices dictate that drilling is economic. The only thing that has truly benefitted this play thus far is its proximity to St. James to garner a premium to WTI, but that has diminished greatly and now the Gulf Coast is seeing a glut of crude that will not help netbacks.
I would love for it to work, my family stands to benefit. It's just too early.
Posted on 3/11/14 at 9:55 pm to redstick13
When I said "my" land I was speaking figuratively as I don't own anything involved in the TMS.
Just trying to get an understanding of how everything works. I'm fascinated by stuff I know very little about
I would like to see this think take off in my parish though. The economy here sucks, a declining tax base and every public entity asking for a new tax every time we have an election is worrisome. Would love to have a economic boom here
Just trying to get an understanding of how everything works. I'm fascinated by stuff I know very little about
I would like to see this think take off in my parish though. The economy here sucks, a declining tax base and every public entity asking for a new tax every time we have an election is worrisome. Would love to have a economic boom here
Posted on 3/11/14 at 11:31 pm to TigerBite
quote:
I just wanted to address a few things in this thread. For shale plays to work, the wells have to be highly predictable and duplicatable. They have to become cookie cutter in nature, or E&Ps waste a lot of time and resources trying to figure something out. Areas have to be de-risked, and once that happens, companies can high grade areas, drill the sweet spots, and focus on reducing costs to get better returns.
The same can be said for all US land plays. It's also the reason land work in the US (and shallow water in the OCS to some extent) is so cyclical.
The high volume outputs are not there like in deepwater and overseas plays. Companies have to put in tons more wells, infrastructure and wait longer times to get comparable production.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 12:01 pm to redstick13
quote:
HOUSTON, March 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: GDP) today announced the completion of its CMR 8-5H-1 (100% WI) well in Amite County, Mississippi. The well has achieved a peak 24-hour average production rate to date of 950 barrels of oil equivalent ("BOE") per day, comprised of 900 barrels of oil and 300 Mcf of gas, and has produced an average of approximately 900 BOE per day over six days. The well, which landed in the Company's lower target, has approximately 5,300 feet of lateral and was fracked with 20 stages using composite plugs that were drilled out prior to flow back.
LINK
Goodrich announced some results this morning. Somewhat good on the well in Amite County, MS. There should be other results being submitted in the next few weeks as well. Hope they are good.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 12:55 pm to RGV AG
What were the well costs?
Posted on 3/24/14 at 1:19 pm to cwill
No idea at this time. Will be interesting to see if and when the do come out. I hope it was cheaper than the other ones.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 1:49 pm to RGV AG
Unless you know the well costs there's no way to determine if well results are good.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 2:15 pm to cwill
You make perfect sense, I am no expert in this field. Let me correct to say that the IP looks favorable compared to other wells that are well thought of in the area.
Agree and understand that the costs dictate viability.
Agree and understand that the costs dictate viability.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 4:29 pm to RGV AG
You went to A&M and you're not a Petroleum Engineer???? WTF man? 
This post was edited on 3/24/14 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 3/24/14 at 5:04 pm to cwill
Sorry boss, History Major working in the rag business way offshore.......somebody has to do it. But one side of the family was from Wilkinson and West Feliciana way back when. We still own property up there and are watching this deal. Oil was about $10 a barrel when I graduated and folks were bailing out of the industry. Wish I would have done something like PE.
Posted on 3/24/14 at 6:37 pm to RGV AG
There were probably a total of 3 petroleum engineers at A&M at that point
Posted on 3/25/14 at 11:39 am to cwill
quote:
Unless you know the well costs there's no way to determine if well results are good.
Well cost is around 13mm with a target of getting wells down to the 10m range.
The way I understand the latest Goodrich presentation on an 800 bmoe well at 13mm they break even at $51 bbl
Latest Goodrich presentation
Posted on 3/25/14 at 1:00 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
The way I understand the latest Goodrich presentation on an 800 bmoe well at 13mm they break even at $51 bbl
Some of these wells have cost more than $13MM. Well results have been well below that curve on a lot of the wells with all the mechanical issues and substandard results. Assume their stated 18.5% average royalty burden and give them something like $70 net per barrel taking into account oil purchasers take and severance in MS (LA will not pay severance until well pays out) you are looking at 185,000 barrels to break even. This doesn't include LOE and the costs to place the wells on artificial lift or if they need constant workovers. That's a lot of oil just to reach payout, and probably only the Crosby well is on pace to make the numbers work. Count me down as skeptical that this will work out for GDP or Halcon.
This post was edited on 3/25/14 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 3/25/14 at 1:14 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
The way I understand the latest Goodrich presentation on an 800 bmoe well at 13mm they break even at $51 bbl
Is that initial production? Problem with the unconventional plays is they usually taper off in production fairly dramatically.
Posted on 3/25/14 at 1:14 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
Some of these wells have cost more than $13MM.
Very true and I think if they felt it would be that costly they wouldnt keep doing it. They are confident they can get cost down to 10mm. The more wells they drill the more they can learn from mistakes. I really dont think the cost can go anywere but down
Ive been following this and know almost nothing about it but it seems that the wells will be a little more economical as the issues get worked out. There also seems to be a consensus that drilling to the lower TMS is more productive than the upper and they arent having the clay problems in the lower as they had anticipated. With so many wells projected fro this year, by 2015 it will be decided if this thing is boom or bust.
HK plans for 5 wells in next 4 months to be spudded on their newly acquired acreage they got from EnCana. Im very interested to see what they can do.
LINK
Posted on 3/25/14 at 1:23 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
The way I understand the latest Goodrich presentation on an 800 bmoe well at 13mm they break even at $51 bbl
That seems rather optimistic.
Posted on 3/25/14 at 1:24 pm to redstick13
quote:
Is that initial production? Problem with the unconventional plays is they usually taper off in production fairly dramatically.
This is one thing I havent quite understood. wells that IP @ 600 drop to 60 in the first year. I just dont see how that is economical.
Posted on 3/25/14 at 1:29 pm to TheIndulger
quote:
That seems rather optimistic.
Id fire the son of a bitch that was pessimistic about our yearly plan that we put 300mm into
Posted on 3/25/14 at 2:06 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
IP @ 600 drop to 60 in the first year.
Wow, didnt realize they were talking that kind of drop off. And to think I was thinking that the 25-30% drop off we were getting on some of our shallow water shelf wells was a big deal.
At those rates they will be stripper wells in almost no time.
This post was edited on 3/25/14 at 2:07 pm
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