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Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?
Posted on 7/16/13 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 7/16/13 at 12:19 pm
First Valero missed, now marathon warned of a weak second quarter. I personally have had my eye on PSX for a while and dove in today down another 3% today at $57.50 from a few weeks ago at $66 and trading at a cheap 7x earnings. What are your thoughts on the refiners? Time to buy or time run?
This post was edited on 7/16/13 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 7/16/13 at 12:23 pm to ThaBigFella
I'm young and looking very long term: I'm always a buyer.
You are in a much different situation so...
I guess I'm just upping my post count.
You are in a much different situation so...
I guess I'm just upping my post count.
This post was edited on 7/16/13 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 7/16/13 at 12:44 pm to ell_13
well ell, if you truly believe that PSX looks super cheap now, its down 15% or so off its high of the year, and its trading under 8x earnings and its a big favorite of warren buffett. Doesn't get much better than that. It just seems the refiners are getting smashed recently and I really was curious what others thought. They don't seem to have much downside at these levels.
This post was edited on 7/16/13 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 7/16/13 at 12:48 pm to ThaBigFella
Crack spreads are shrinking with this rise in crude as of late.
Posted on 7/16/13 at 12:51 pm to ThaBigFella
I defer to you Big Fella. On paper, you're right. Looks too easy, which almost makes me cautious. Almost!
Posted on 7/16/13 at 12:59 pm to ThaBigFella
Long term I like the chemical industry much more than the refining industry, but I still think refining will do well.
Having said that, crude oil prices have been volatile lately. In the past year there have been 5 moves (or changes from going up/down) in WTIC of $15 dollars or more. When refiners are buying crude 2-6 weeks before they sale the gas/diesel/jet fuel/kerosene etc reversals of that magnitude and frequency eat into margins.
I think it's a short term (6 months to a year) problem.
Having said that, crude oil prices have been volatile lately. In the past year there have been 5 moves (or changes from going up/down) in WTIC of $15 dollars or more. When refiners are buying crude 2-6 weeks before they sale the gas/diesel/jet fuel/kerosene etc reversals of that magnitude and frequency eat into margins.
I think it's a short term (6 months to a year) problem.
Posted on 7/16/13 at 3:52 pm to ThaBigFella
High oil prices hurt oil companies that are predominately refiners or those that split their upstream and downstream in to separate businesses.
Valero having no upstream piece hurts them. Actually, with the amount of capital they expend on upkeep of those shitty refineries they buy, I really have no idea how they every turn a profit.
Marathon is reeling from the purchase of that abomination of a refinery in Texas City from BP.
IMHO, they are all still buys for a long term holding. The oil price is going to stabilize in the upcoming years and settle in at $70-80 range based on all the forecast our internal folks are presenting. It's the number we are using to justify all our capital expenditures in downstream over the next decade. We being Shell.
Valero having no upstream piece hurts them. Actually, with the amount of capital they expend on upkeep of those shitty refineries they buy, I really have no idea how they every turn a profit.
Marathon is reeling from the purchase of that abomination of a refinery in Texas City from BP.
IMHO, they are all still buys for a long term holding. The oil price is going to stabilize in the upcoming years and settle in at $70-80 range based on all the forecast our internal folks are presenting. It's the number we are using to justify all our capital expenditures in downstream over the next decade. We being Shell.
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