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Started By
Message
GREECE: 61 no, 39 yes. What's next?
Posted on 7/4/15 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 7/4/15 at 10:01 pm
Polls show a dead heat for the yes/no vote to stay in the eurozone.
A "yes" vote would result in higher taxes and reduced pensions (and yet another bailout). I'm not sure exactly how bad a "no" vote would be for Greeks (maybe no one quite knows).
Neither situation is good by any stretch with how divisive this vote will likely be.
Closer to home, I'm assuming that a Greek rejection would be terrible for the market on Monday, and I could even see it starting a decent long term slide coupled with falling oil prices and looming rate hikes.
The next 6 months could be interesting.
A "yes" vote would result in higher taxes and reduced pensions (and yet another bailout). I'm not sure exactly how bad a "no" vote would be for Greeks (maybe no one quite knows).
Neither situation is good by any stretch with how divisive this vote will likely be.
Closer to home, I'm assuming that a Greek rejection would be terrible for the market on Monday, and I could even see it starting a decent long term slide coupled with falling oil prices and looming rate hikes.
The next 6 months could be interesting.
This post was edited on 7/5/15 at 10:10 pm
8
Posted on 7/5/15 at 1:45 am to bayoubengals88
I have no fresh capital to invest in a Monday tankage, unfortunately. What's probably the best long term solution? Stick with Europe?
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:45 am to bayoubengals88
They've been open for 8hrs. What time do they close and how soon after will we know the results?
Posted on 7/5/15 at 7:39 am to Lsut81
quote:
What time do they close and how soon after will we know the results?
Polls close at 11AM CST with the first official projection at 1PM CST.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 7:57 am to LSUneaux
According to the podcast I listened to yesterday the best long term solution is for them to leave the euro zone.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:12 am to Shepherd88
There is no easy solution for the Greeks. They have over 40% of their population retired and on pensions, and there unemployment is over 20%. Long term they need to increase the retirement age, but it is too late for those already retired as u can only reduce their pensions so much before they can't afford to live. And this is where a huge bulk of their debt obligations are maintained.
Greece will eventually need to pay their debts so it's now or down the road. I would expect it's the down the road option, since all politicians fall back to this.
The problem with a no vote is Greece will be on their own. And with no real revenue other then turism they are going to struggle without bailouts Unless someone like Russia steps in to buy their support and gain an ally in Europe.
Greece will eventually need to pay their debts so it's now or down the road. I would expect it's the down the road option, since all politicians fall back to this.
The problem with a no vote is Greece will be on their own. And with no real revenue other then turism they are going to struggle without bailouts Unless someone like Russia steps in to buy their support and gain an ally in Europe.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 8:22 am to Shepherd88
quote:
According to the podcast I listened to yesterday the best long term solution is for them to leave the euro zone.
Let them leave, tired of hearing about Greece and their bullshite.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 9:42 am to LSUneaux
quote:
What's probably the best long term solution? Stick with Europe?
I have no idea what the "best" decision is, but I can say that you probably can't go wrong buying EWG (iShares Germany) and EWC (Canada).
Canada isn't directly related to the Greek situation, but that ETF is pretty beaten up due to low oil and a weak Canadian dollar.
See what they do this week and average down.
I believe in EWC because I believe in Canadian banks long term. They might be the best value on the market right now.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 10:38 am to bayoubengals88
Best thing for Greece to do is ala Iceland. Repudiate all debt, arrest bankers, go back to drachma, and align with Russia/China for trade. Warm water port and pipeline gives Russia plenty of reason to assist.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 11:03 am to bayoubengals88
ready for a major correction, hope it comes. If not, oh well. House is purchased and we paid off the wife's student loans. Time for everything to go to the market
Posted on 7/5/15 at 11:04 am to cusoonkpd
quote:Arrest the Greek bankers for having absolutely no fault or control over the starting or continuation of this situation? One more reason for me to hate politicians.
arrest bankers
The politicians should be arrested, if anyone. Too bad most people are stupid and think socialism is a good thing, especially in Europe.
With that said, I think I will hold off on buying NBG for now. Either result, to me, seems like it would just extend this fiasco. One requires new elections, the other is continued unpredictable insanity.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 12:15 pm to TigerTatorTots
Big correction is long over due. The fact US markets were up Friday with this looming just shows how artificial the current market is. It's all just cheap Fed money driving everything.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 1:45 pm to cusoonkpd
Greece would have to leave NATO to do what you suggest. They would be walking away from relationships and traditions that are centuries old to be beggars to people they've had no reason to trust for those same centuries. Not exactly a winning solution.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 1:57 pm to bayoubengals88
No means leave EU and yes means stay?
Posted on 7/5/15 at 2:01 pm to TigerTatorTots
Correct. Looks like they're OUT.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 2:02 pm to TigerTatorTots
That's what the EU says. The Greek politicians say that yes means they'll resign, no means they have a mandate from the people/more bargaining power.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 2:48 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
No means leave EU and yes means stay?
Basically...
No means they will not accept austerity measures and have no real plan to repay their debt
Yes means they will accept austerity measures, remain in the EU, and likely get a new bailout
fricking incredible. frick those people. You get helped out of a jam and refuse to do the things needed to help yourself.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 2:51 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who was gambling the future of his 5-month-old left-wing government on the vote, insisted that a "no" vote would strengthen his hand to negotiate a better deal with creditors, while a "yes" result would mean capitulating to their harsh demands.
Wow, you talk about a frick you to the creditors...
https://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GREECE_BAILOUT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-07-05-15-20-13
Posted on 7/5/15 at 2:52 pm to bayoubengals88
I DONT CARE HOW YOU ARE GOING TO DO IT, BUT YOU TOLD ME YOU WERE GOING TO GIVE ME MONEY AND I WANT IT!
Posted on 7/5/15 at 2:54 pm to Lsut81
Lol.
So he thinks that just because the people don't want to practice fiscal responsibility and want to keep up with the Joneses of the EU, that is leverage for further enabling?
So he thinks that just because the people don't want to practice fiscal responsibility and want to keep up with the Joneses of the EU, that is leverage for further enabling?
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