re: Official Erin Energy (ERN) thread

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I think we get hit 8/11. I also think after 8/11 is a good time for those with a long time frame. The possibility exists that they have no lifts Q2. The announcements, and timing for the factoring lead me to believe this. Also, it looks like they are somewhat actively seeking additional financing (preferred shares and debt offering) to go at Micoene in a huge hurry.

I'd like to post Cramer's "House of Pain''< but cannot find a decent link.

Laffy. Due diligence and all of that "sexy" stuff.

Good stuff. Thanks, I appreciate posters who actually put some time in to their investments. Makes common sense. I suspect all the major players will probably wait on their exploration well, and the decline of premium brent hasn't helped ERN in this either.

But, but, but, if you're in it to win it, you have to keep on doing homework. Nothing that has ever made me real money has been either easy or quick.

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Earnings being leaked? No other reason I can think of for this to move, and as thinly as it is traded, that would do it.

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Short covering on the last day of the month?

Sometime on or around the 11th, the short report is going to be out. This is most interesting. The minimal float and huge short interest seem dangerous to me going in to earning. Pretty much coincides with their call.

Now, we have no idea whether they received a factoring payment, or if the initial lift will even be booked Q2.

But, but, but, if it is, this has some potential to run.

I still think Q3.

Chris Heath is now more involved in finance. Lionel McBee is now investor relations. The change seems to be not only in personnel, but in response time. Something must be going on. Last time I called they basically told me they couldn't talk to me, and I'd eventually know why. Strange to me.

Edit. 49.50 ZAR fully fungible T+3 still provides some opportunity, although it is much thinner and very, very illiquid. Illiquid on the way in, certainly not as illiquid on NYSE Mkt on the way out.

You could sell calls, buy/sell short, and arbitrage. It would take some work. Same thing you'd do if you held in the money options at expiration, and you couldn't get them bought and/or sold to cover at real values, but only market values. Although market makers could close the gap almost instantaneously once they saw this. One of the few times you can beat them because they can't fiddle faddle you purchase/short sale of the underlying, they could only set the spread of the derivative.

Just read it myself and thought the same thing.

Except that the wells are producing 13k not 14,200 bpd

The also cut production expenses pretty significantly. Should help with margins gping forward.

That was a very positive earnings release, IMO

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Should prove to be interesting. I'm anticipating (hoping) for increased short interest and downward pressure.

Someone asked about miocene on the call. Basically said they are moving ahead with the developmental wells and expect drilling to commence before end of year. Still talking with potential partners on miocene. Sounds like they are going to wait on miocene in hopes of oil prices rising and stronger interest from potential partners.

I think it was positive overall but did they say on the cc that they want to drill in other properties and not the Miocene formation. It