re: Lnglf.....who has been stocking up?

Which to buy? LNGLF / LNGLY

Good week for LNG.

Yes and no to me..... Lng:asx is almost at a point of no return.....not to mention it has Australia and Canadian market....

Its interesting to see though....

Aquires contract with Kinder Morgan Pipeline

quote:

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Aquires contract with Kinder Morgan Pipeline

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Another meaningless, fluff press release. Why don't they address the real question, where are the customers?

You got it backwards, you need customers with signed, guaranteed, long term, take or pay deals to get financing to build a project like this, especially if it's non-recourse financing. These press releases about MOU's with contractors and interconnect agreements are bush league, penny stock bullshite. Nothing has happened with this project other than they have a permit pending with FERC.

Ok...

Good news on this front...

Bear head in Nova Scotia cleared a major hurdle...

BH big step!

I'd hold at least for a few more weeks- Energy stocks are on an upswing, so I think you could stand to make a few more bucks back. Even then, I'd probably still hold some long term, and sell enough to make back your investment plus a little extra. You're only about $800 in, so you could sell 100 shares and keep your house money in the game.

Another "update" from last week, looks like two of the four prospective customers have stalled out and the company's previous target of securing customers by Q1 2015 has come and passed. Listening to their March 27 investor call now.

LINK

quote:

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LNG Offtake Agreements

? Advanced negotiations continue with two parties for ~ 4 mtpa with anticipated contract closings once
the third parties sign their customer agreements and/or receive required Board approvals, which will
occur after 31 March 2015.

? Magnolia LNG is confident it will close bankable offtake agreements for the full 8 mtpa of capacity, with
initial LNG production from Train 1 forecasted for late 2018.

? Market demand is strong for MLNG’s offtake reflected by:  
o Four non-binding LNG tolling agreement (LTA) term sheets in place for a total of ~ 7 mtpa;
o Two parties with combined demand of ~ 1.7 mtpa negotiating LNG sales and purchase agreements
(SPA);  
o 3.7 mtpa of draft LTAs in “mark-up stage” with three other parties; and  
o Four other parties, for ~ 6.0 mtpa demand, in early stage contract discussions for SPAs or LTAs.

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Conference call:
LINK

VERY interesting exchange of questions between the CEO and an analyst around the 15 minute mark.

quote:

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My notes from the presentation and as party to conversations before and after as follows.

Corporate ?
• ?about 65% USA shareholding
?Aim to dual list in 12 mths.
?Expect price to be 10x EBITDA once operating – normal for USA
?If interpose MLP structure then 15x EBITDA possible
?Interest in BTA’s for more than BH and Mag capacity.
?Expect rerating of prospects by market before Xmas.
?Business model – use tech in the business - not for sale or licensing.
?A bigger business in being the entrepreneur with each new project –identify the project, select the sites, arrange GSAs & BTAs aim to have 100% equity up to financial close. Can make decisions more freely & quickly, reduces time to financial close. Other parties or funding after that point to build the LNG facility.
?BTA demand from Europe & Americas – not Asia.
?LNG price came off late last year as NY hedge funds sick of waiting for FERC
?ASX 100 by Xmas
?Current burn $4 mil/mth - $40+ mil in kitty.
?Plenty of options for funds top up but don’t think will be required.
?$66 mil Stonepeak equity 4Q C2105
?
Magnolia?

?
Will now start at 8mtpa not 4mtpa. ?


•Stonepeak will fund $800.
•No room at site to be bigger than 8mpta.
•Expect 60% ownership of Magnolia
•Magnolia EBITDA $900 mil (US)
•Once operating expect market to value as 10x EBITDA
•i.e. LNG’s share $540 mil x 10 = $5.4 bn.
•If interpose Mater Limited Partnership then 15x EBITDA is possible in the US
•Expect first 2mtpa BTA in a month or so – this would enable the project to go.
•Expect 2nd 2mtpa BTA 2Q C2015
•Expect all 8mpta BTAs by end of year
•FERC on track but about 6 mnths slower than originally expected
•LNG effectively No 6 on FERC list of projects to start
•Draft EIS completed
•Expect SER to be issued soon – next month or so
•This will then enable sale to non FTA countries.
•This could trigger next wave of USA institutional investment
•Final EPC 2Q C2015 – SKC & KBR
•EPC 6 mths price fix to get to fin close
•With only 2mpta BTA & EPC signed then BNP raise debt - 4Q2015.
•Financial close 4Q C2015
•$66 mil of Stonepeak equity expected 4Q2015
•Planned construction start is 1/1/2016
•1st train completed and commissioned 4Q 2018 & then another train every 3 months thereafter
?
Bear Head?

?
Aim for 100% ownership of BH, ?


• ?will raise equity with dual listing
?BH will be more profitable -extra 15% capacity with cold weather.
?10 key approvals for financial close – 9 in place already.
?Next approval in 2 mnths.
?Plenty of gas – offshore, west coast Canada, USA
?Most pipelines in place – Kinder Morgan in the mix
?Tricky bit is arranging gas supply – very political hence no announcements till tied up – hoped in 3Q C2015.
?Export licence hoped for 3Q C2015.
?Plenty of interest in BTA’s
?EPC process start 3Q 2015 with staff from Magnolia when finished there.
?
FL ?

?
Hopeful of gas supply post Shell/BG merger.?

?
happy they extended the lease?


• ?3 buyers for LNG out of Gladstone, Just no supply yet
?Could start construction tomorrow once gas supply fixed
?
3rd NA Projec?

?
First approached by promoters Jan 2013.?


•DD underway
•11 of 12 LNG’s conditions precedent have been met – things like gas supply, pipelines, port, approvals,
•In a country that takes forever to get approvals" – afterwards Mexico was mentioned.
•Expect to announce 3Q C2015
•
Further afield.?

•East Coast Africa looks promising
•West Coast Canada also promising

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This comes from a hot copper poster @ the sydney presentation.