Is BP a no brainer?

With no capital appreciation it is a 6.75% annual return compounding quarterly. I think the are strong enough to maintain their dividends(no specific metric to point to).

I can possibly just give some food for thought, I'm in no way knowledgeable about stocks, but I'm involved in the industry as a Geologist.

BP's big thing is their "new" seismic imaging technique of Full Waveform Inversion. Its big thing is producing better images and allowing for further exploration in producing fields because this technique is combined with prior shot seismic data and petrology data to build a better velocity model. Velocity models are used to produce more accurate maps as well as reveal oil/gas deposits that were missed due to the innate inaccuracies of seismic waves.

I would not really consider this new seismic imaging technique to warrant getting into BP because of it solely. BP is a big player and they know what they are doing with their money and projects, i.e. investing to become a bigger shale producer in the future.

After all that, oil will sit in the 45-high 50s for another two-four years so it is definitely a long term hold. After that, it's going to be hard to say, but early analysis from a lot of the websites/articles I read are that it's going up pretty steeply. This is mainly due to the deepwater GOM projects that have been put off because of prices today. These projects take 3-5 years to start up and with CAPEX being taken out of new exploration in the deepwater GOM it is very well possible that it could create a big supply deficit. This is considering the basin is producing at a current 1.7 MMPD and only going up.

TL;DR If you're looking into the supers XOM, RDS etc.. you probably couldn't go wrong with any. Most are starting to expand their portfolios into the shales of west Texas, have leaned out their staffs and optimized their spending...except for Chevron. I wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole. Being "PC" can ruin a company pretty quickly these days.

If you're looking for a quick pretty secure pickup, any of the big shale companies are going to be going to work hard and quick. Shale players have dwarfed everyone in expanding CAPEX upwards of 10x as much.

Shale Spending Going Up 10x Compared to Competition.

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Although I think they are doing it to kill fracking when they disclose how big their reserves are.

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Saudi already has "disclosed" their reserves before and they have every reason to fudge them higher, not lower. So I'd be absolutely shocked if estimates came in higher or even at previous numbers

That BP dividend is untenable, don't chase yield

Aramco is only going to float 5% to the public and they aren't going to do it at $50 oil

I looked at BP b/c of the high dividend.

They have $23 billion in the bank but could burn through it to pay the dividend.

They break even at $60 per barrel.

Since no one is saying oil will hit 60, I'm still watching.

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into the shales of west Texas, have leaned out their staffs and optimized their spending...except for Chevron

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Uhh Chevron has done both of those things. Maybe more so than any other major

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Uhh Chevron has done both of those things. Maybe more so than any other major

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Sorry didn't mean it as they haven't optimized and laid off. Poorly worded.

What I meant was they are the only major to actually continue to reduce CAPEX spending this year into 2018. To me from what I saw of them, they were one of the more gluttonous companies during the high time than any other.
Especially after talking to a friend that is still a drilling engineer for them in the Covington office, somehow he made it through the crazy amount of cuts they had in both Covington and Lafayette.

Chevron reduces CAPEX for 2017-2018

I want to say their breakeven on their GOM assets are $40.

What are they running out of the Covington offices now? I thought that that's where all their shelf stuff was being ran out of but they have sold all that. They have closed all of the Lafayette stuff down correct?