What I am want to know is what do you guys consider long-term? 5 years, 10, 20....? I hear people say that the indexes win over the long haul but never define how long is a "long haul"?
Fair enough. I've seen where if you took all the mutual funds for a year, they don't as a group beat an index after costs.
I've also seen them take the "big winner" mutual funds, and compare their performance year to year. These funds usually come back to earth or lose out the very next year or years.
There have only been a handful of funds that consistently kept beating the indexes and were run by the type of guys who write books.
Basically, the idea is, you could beat the index, but its pot luck since there are so many funds and their management changes, "luck" changes, etc.
So to answer your question, according to the books, they've sliced it up on almost every time scale and came up with the same thing.
The average investor just doesn't have the knowledge to beat the market. Not enough time to invest in the skills and knowledge required.
This post was edited on 2/1 at 3:25 pm