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re: Federal intrest rate and stock market
Posted on 6/10/15 at 3:28 pm to Golfer
Posted on 6/10/15 at 3:28 pm to Golfer
And just think, for the most part the people that post in here are significantly smarter than the average person.
That's a compliment, and that's also scary. But with respect to the original poster, if he wants to go to cash, nothing wrong with that. it's his money, and no one, including so called experts can guess any better than him. S if he wants to time, and I do a similar thing, that's on him and I. Both the benefits, and consequences. Whatever they might, or might not be.
That's a compliment, and that's also scary. But with respect to the original poster, if he wants to go to cash, nothing wrong with that. it's his money, and no one, including so called experts can guess any better than him. S if he wants to time, and I do a similar thing, that's on him and I. Both the benefits, and consequences. Whatever they might, or might not be.
1
Posted on 6/10/15 at 6:58 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Anyone else pulling most of their money from stocks before the fed rate hike?
I'm slowly reducing my securities and will be out before the rates goes up. I'll be sitting on the sideline for a while.
Nope. Market timing is bad. You have to be right twice; selling and buying back in. The biggest gains happen in a short amount of time.
Posted on 6/10/15 at 7:11 pm to STLhog
quote:
I'm up on most of my stocks and my S&P ETF has been getting crushed. Pretty sure I'm going to pull out of it soon and see how things shake out.
Most professional money/fund managers cannot beat the S&P in a single year let alone over a decade or more.
It's not about the short term, but the long term performance that matters.
Posted on 6/10/15 at 7:42 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
But with respect to the original poster, if he wants to go to cash, nothing wrong with that. it's his money, and no one, including so called experts can guess any better than him. S if he wants to time, and I do a similar thing, that's on him and I. Both the benefits, and consequences. Whatever they might, or might not be.
I agree. The scary part, though, is that he has about a ~50% chance of being right. And if he is right, he will chalk it up to his unique brilliance, not the actual reason. Which would be blind luck.
Posted on 6/10/15 at 10:42 pm to Cold Cous Cous
Guys, this is a topic I am obsessed with right now.
I can't find a single credible source that believes anything other than "everything is all rosy" in the stock market.
That is usually an indication to sell. I know timing the market is next to impossible but thie market is at an all time high with astronomical debt levels in this country (including the government).
The amount that I currently have in the stock market is more than I ever imagined I would have. What would be so bad about taking the profits now and holding it out a few years and see what happens (as long as I do not care if I miss out on an ongoing positive run in the market)??
I can't find a single credible source that believes anything other than "everything is all rosy" in the stock market.
That is usually an indication to sell. I know timing the market is next to impossible but thie market is at an all time high with astronomical debt levels in this country (including the government).
The amount that I currently have in the stock market is more than I ever imagined I would have. What would be so bad about taking the profits now and holding it out a few years and see what happens (as long as I do not care if I miss out on an ongoing positive run in the market)??
Posted on 6/11/15 at 12:29 am to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Anyone else pulling most of their money from stocks before the fed rate hike?
You were too late. Everyone's been expecting a rate hike for over a year now.
Posted on 6/11/15 at 2:42 am to STLhog
quote:
Anything wrong with taking my gains and then buying back in when the market corrects?
Not at all. So let me know when the perfect timing is to pull out and then to buy back in, ok?
Posted on 6/11/15 at 6:33 am to SECdragonmaster
quote:
The amount that I currently have in the stock market is more than I ever imagined I would have. What would be so bad about taking the profits now and holding it out a few years and see what happens (as long as I do not care if I miss out on an ongoing positive run in the market)??
The fact that "time in the market" is more important than "timing the market"
When stock values fall, and those companies keep paying you the same dividends, you are getting more shares than you were when the market was up. Guess what happens when the values come back up?
Posted on 6/11/15 at 1:57 pm to SECdragonmaster
quote:
but thie market is at an all time high
Perhaps on a price basis, but certainly not on a valuation basis.
quote:
with astronomical debt levels in this country
What are you referring to? If anything, the debt situation is much better than it was in 2007. Companies are flush with cash. And even the crappier companies have termed out cheap financing for years, so they actually do have some ability to weather a storm.
Posted on 6/11/15 at 2:04 pm to Big Scrub TX
I'm glad someone else in here is sane lol
Posted on 6/11/15 at 2:24 pm to SECdragonmaster
quote:
I can't find a single credible source that believes anything other than "everything is all rosy" in the stock market.
Peter Schiff
To the OP: Why leave the market entirely? Why not buy into financials?
If rates rise, the economy is growing, people are spending money/using more credit and banks are earning larger spreads.
Posted on 6/11/15 at 3:28 pm to gatorsimz
quote:
To the OP: Why leave the market entirely? Why not buy into financials?
agree
I'm looking at BAC, WFC or JPM.
But who knows, i remember when citi crashed big time during the last crises.
Posted on 6/11/15 at 6:38 pm to bayoudude
quote:
I might be in the minority but i hope rates do go up somewhat. My cash in the bank isn't doing squat and CD rates are pitiful.
So were you one of those who got out of the market two years ago?
Posted on 6/11/15 at 9:33 pm to foshizzle
If you are so confident the correction is coming. Why sit on the side lines and make tiny interest rates.
Buying a short etf like SPXU is where real traders out perform the market.
By the way I am not a financial advisor.
Buying a short etf like SPXU is where real traders out perform the market.
By the way I am not a financial advisor.
Posted on 6/11/15 at 11:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
Thanks to you and thib.
That is the type of discussion I am looking to hear in this forum. I am not employed in the financial sector and will admit to my noob status. My lack of complete knowledge is why I have not sold yet.
Feel free to give me more reasons to stay in the game.
That is the type of discussion I am looking to hear in this forum. I am not employed in the financial sector and will admit to my noob status. My lack of complete knowledge is why I have not sold yet.
Feel free to give me more reasons to stay in the game.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 12:00 am to STLhog
quote:Oh noes debt is going to be incredibly cheap instead of ludicrously cheap. Better start stuffing the mattresses!
No more uber cheap corporate debt.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 7:00 am to SECdragonmaster
It's dangerous to jump off a roller coaster
Posted on 6/12/15 at 10:10 am to SECdragonmaster
quote:
Feel free to give me more reasons to stay in the game.
I don't know if you should or shouldn't. I'm not a pure buy and hold guy. And I think there is a nuance between "market timing" and investing based on fundamentals. e.g. if P/E's went back over 30X like they did in 1999, I would happily exit the market and not consider it at all to be "market timing". I simply don't want to buy American businesses at 30X. Similarly, if the market goes to 6X or whatever it was in early 2009, I might go to overweight equities based on valuation.
You can also play with different parts of the capital structure at different times. If you think things are a bit expensive now, then maybe buy some securities that are senior to the equity but still give you some good upside (like convertible bonds).
Posted on 6/12/15 at 10:40 am to Big Scrub TX
I just love these threads.
Posted on 6/12/15 at 10:49 am to Shepherd88
quote:
Charts mean absolutely nothing.
I disagree very strongly with this. Technical analysis can be very useful. It has been very profitable for me the last several years.
I will say that if one doesn't trade with any leverage, buy and hold will work out best for most people. The more leverage one uses, the more important technicals/risk management becomes.
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