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Started By
Message
re: Amazon just crushed earnings
Posted on 4/29/16 at 4:44 am to lynxcat
Posted on 4/29/16 at 4:44 am to lynxcat
quote:
I have accepted that Google and Amazon are going to run our lives and I am perfectly ok with it.
sames. The ability to buy anything i need in my underwear on my couch is worth the 1-2 day wait.
1
Posted on 4/29/16 at 3:50 pm to ItNeverRains
To piggy back off an earlier point, Amazon is hugely diversified. Their AWS biz is the dominant cloud service (on Earth, not just America) and it's a 10B/year business alone.
Their capability to provide everything from Cloud services to actual CDN's is far bigger than anyone realizes. By and large most of the public has zero clue as to just how big-and dominant-AWS is.
But beyond that, they're a streaming video service, a streaming audio provider, cloud content competitor with GOOG & APPL, and the Alpha and Omega of online retailing.
Their ability to continue to grow is astounding when you think about it.
...and the one thing a lot of people are discounting is Alexa and its future. Several years ago, I was convinced that either OK Google or Siri would win the battle for connected home superiority via Android or HomeKit/iOS but I'm convinced that what Amazon has done by focusing on Alexa and constantly iterating the Echo, and coming out with the Fire Stick, Tap and Dot has helped them come from almost nowhere to take a dominant position in the race to control the connected home.
The treasure trove of data that Apple and Google crave may end up being limited to what we do when we're away from home or what we look at on the computer while we're in it. But how we live, act, what we consume and what and when we do it? Amazon's on its way to locking that cornucopia of data completely up.
Very, very impressed with them as a company.
Their capability to provide everything from Cloud services to actual CDN's is far bigger than anyone realizes. By and large most of the public has zero clue as to just how big-and dominant-AWS is.
But beyond that, they're a streaming video service, a streaming audio provider, cloud content competitor with GOOG & APPL, and the Alpha and Omega of online retailing.
Their ability to continue to grow is astounding when you think about it.
...and the one thing a lot of people are discounting is Alexa and its future. Several years ago, I was convinced that either OK Google or Siri would win the battle for connected home superiority via Android or HomeKit/iOS but I'm convinced that what Amazon has done by focusing on Alexa and constantly iterating the Echo, and coming out with the Fire Stick, Tap and Dot has helped them come from almost nowhere to take a dominant position in the race to control the connected home.
The treasure trove of data that Apple and Google crave may end up being limited to what we do when we're away from home or what we look at on the computer while we're in it. But how we live, act, what we consume and what and when we do it? Amazon's on its way to locking that cornucopia of data completely up.
Very, very impressed with them as a company.
Posted on 4/29/16 at 6:03 pm to GFunk
AWS is the reason to buy the stock honestly. They make around 40% margins on the business and it is growing at north of 200%+ each year. It is an enterprise play and no consumer has any idea this is powering many of the world's greatest businesses.
Amazon's other services basically bakes them into every facet of consumer's lives. The growth of Amazon Fresh/Pantry, the use of Alexa to fulfill ordinary everyday needs (and predict our needs eventually), the connected home, the content streaming and original content creation...Amazon is only going to get drastically larger.
Hitting the $1T valuation in my lifetime is a damn certainty. They are likely going to be there in the next 10-15 years.
For example, I will take a single vertical it plays in that is in its infancy today - grocery. Only a fraction of groceries are purchased online today and Amazon is at the center of the developing ecosystem. eCommerce grocery is projected to grow to 20-30% of all grocery in the next 10 years, dramatically impacting the B&M landscape and the ways that CPG companies have done business...forever. Amazon will have Alexa keeping track of your grocery needs and will automatically order the products for you and ship them to your front door at prices competitive to the B&M store. I already do this as an early adopter, but this is going to be mainstream very soon.
The other space Amazon will enter is beer and liquor. The three tier ditribution model that came from prohibition makes the operations a pain in the arse, but they will sort out the legal issues before long. Right now only 1% of beer/wine/spirits goes through eCommerce. These products have terrific margins and are clearly an opportunity.
These are just the public ideas/concepts that are clearly there for the taking. This does not consider any crazy new innovation they launch that shakes up the marketplace. They are diversified and will change the way our lives work moving forward.
Google, Uber, Amazon, and maybe Facebook are the companies that I see controlling our lives for the better in the future.
Facebook is more to do with Instagram and virtual reality than FB itself, although Facebook is the most effective ad targeting platform on Earth today. The ROI on paid Facebook ads are absolute no brainers for companies looking to target uber-specific demographics. This is what makes Facebook interesting...the ability to share a status update and be connected with friends is a necessary requirement to keep people on a platform where they are comfortable sharing their data.
Amazon's other services basically bakes them into every facet of consumer's lives. The growth of Amazon Fresh/Pantry, the use of Alexa to fulfill ordinary everyday needs (and predict our needs eventually), the connected home, the content streaming and original content creation...Amazon is only going to get drastically larger.
Hitting the $1T valuation in my lifetime is a damn certainty. They are likely going to be there in the next 10-15 years.
For example, I will take a single vertical it plays in that is in its infancy today - grocery. Only a fraction of groceries are purchased online today and Amazon is at the center of the developing ecosystem. eCommerce grocery is projected to grow to 20-30% of all grocery in the next 10 years, dramatically impacting the B&M landscape and the ways that CPG companies have done business...forever. Amazon will have Alexa keeping track of your grocery needs and will automatically order the products for you and ship them to your front door at prices competitive to the B&M store. I already do this as an early adopter, but this is going to be mainstream very soon.
The other space Amazon will enter is beer and liquor. The three tier ditribution model that came from prohibition makes the operations a pain in the arse, but they will sort out the legal issues before long. Right now only 1% of beer/wine/spirits goes through eCommerce. These products have terrific margins and are clearly an opportunity.
These are just the public ideas/concepts that are clearly there for the taking. This does not consider any crazy new innovation they launch that shakes up the marketplace. They are diversified and will change the way our lives work moving forward.
Google, Uber, Amazon, and maybe Facebook are the companies that I see controlling our lives for the better in the future.
Facebook is more to do with Instagram and virtual reality than FB itself, although Facebook is the most effective ad targeting platform on Earth today. The ROI on paid Facebook ads are absolute no brainers for companies looking to target uber-specific demographics. This is what makes Facebook interesting...the ability to share a status update and be connected with friends is a necessary requirement to keep people on a platform where they are comfortable sharing their data.
Posted on 4/29/16 at 9:13 pm to lynxcat
Could we see a stock split at some point soon?
Posted on 4/29/16 at 9:13 pm to lynxcat
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/29/16 at 9:14 pm
Posted on 4/30/16 at 12:10 am to bubbz
Stick split is pretty arbitrary. It could happen if they want the stock more accessible.
Posted on 4/30/16 at 9:54 am to lynxcat
While I agree regarding the discussion about both Amazon and FB's ads, I'm also reading where sharing of info, pics, status updates etc (FB calls them original sharing I believe) is down 21% and is down even further as a percentage of younger user's demographics. They've tried to use several camera apps with little success to encourage posting and sharing. Their purchase of Instagram at this point seems like a saving grace for them in that demographic but they've got to figure out a way to slide that sharing by that age group over to FB which has been successfully monetized compared to IG.
I'm also still realllllllly interested to see how Magic Leap factors into this discussion as well. At the end of the day, we are still using buttons, keyboard and slabs of glass and metal to interact in the tech world to take care of our everyday needs.
Magic Leap has the potential to be a very, very big disruptor that could easily displace those haptic-based use cases and/or graft them into its OS if they get it right.
I'm also still realllllllly interested to see how Magic Leap factors into this discussion as well. At the end of the day, we are still using buttons, keyboard and slabs of glass and metal to interact in the tech world to take care of our everyday needs.
Magic Leap has the potential to be a very, very big disruptor that could easily displace those haptic-based use cases and/or graft them into its OS if they get it right.
This post was edited on 4/30/16 at 9:55 am
Posted on 4/30/16 at 5:10 pm to GFunk
I still don't understand the allure of augmented reality. Wearables are going to continue to have the headwind of being dorky, ala Segways, and it's hard for me to envision a non-entertainment application.
Posted on 4/30/16 at 11:33 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
Lou Pai
quote:
it's hard for me to envision a non-entertainment application.
Wow. Really? I see a metric shite ton of professional applications. Imagine being a mechanic working on an engine and being able to look at a superimposed parts blowup or spec sheet while you're working? Or cuing up a video or interactive manual that relates to the operation or repair?
Think about having the ability to type, handle multiple Office-productivity apps or programs or emails available without a monitor? With some haptic feedback and voice control, the ability to increase productivity while freeing someone from the typical office constraints is fascinating to me.
Looking through your pantry while checking prices on the things you don't see and then calling out or using gestures to add items to a grocery list?
What about interior decorating or design? Architecture? Engineering? You can't see the way these fields could see value added in mind blowing ways using this tech?
Posted on 5/1/16 at 12:04 am to GFunk
While the mechanic applications sound cool and somewhat helpful, don't really see that they would add all that much to productivity. That seems marginal on top of what the internet has done. Because to me, the hype around this makes me think I'm supposed to sense... "Wow! Must be the next internet!" but I'm not getting it. And in terms of Office productivity, I use the MS Office suite extremely frequently at work and at a somewhat advanced level, especially for Excel. I have no idea how being able to see all my cell references projected on my retinas really means anything.
It's still a visual representation of data, not sure how putting that or my inbox in 3-D format is that cool.
The IoT stuff alluded to in this thread, I get, and am admittedly a little disturbed by, because I have reservations about being plugged into a grid even more than we are now. But VR and AR I really think is overblown. I'm sure it will make waves in movie and video game industry. But I think the tech industry is starting to run out of low hanging fruit in a lot of ways.
It's still a visual representation of data, not sure how putting that or my inbox in 3-D format is that cool.
The IoT stuff alluded to in this thread, I get, and am admittedly a little disturbed by, because I have reservations about being plugged into a grid even more than we are now. But VR and AR I really think is overblown. I'm sure it will make waves in movie and video game industry. But I think the tech industry is starting to run out of low hanging fruit in a lot of ways.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 7:00 am to lynxcat
This thread started me thinking becuase I had intended to sleep in this morning, but instead woke up at 5AM, so after I did some busy work, I had time to think. And I also looked at my YTD unrealized and realized p&l. Which is good this year, and reflects what it always has, the realized gains are all in sectors/commodities/companies that show up year after year after year. Even the unrealized gains, or what I have as buy and forget reflect the same investing concepts that I either have experience in, or I think I understand enough to be comfortable with.
Prejudices, preconceived notions, fear of the unknown, unwillingness to learn and contempt prior to investigation. How does this impact what I invest in? While I think I'm open to new and upcoming opportunities. But the fact is, I must not be, becuase my portfolio doesn't reflect this with respect to technology and social media.
I'm 49. A lot of technology has transpired after I got out of college. I automated my business early, and updated often. I had a mobile phone when they cost big dollars, and they were big sized. I moved to upload/download with our vendors early, and we had email, and an internal server very early. Since have switched to internal and the cloud.
So do I embrace technology or not? Does this impact my portfolio?
Yes and no, and it is entirely based on my life experience, and consequently, not objective when it comes to buying any sort of equity or debt of a tech or social media company.
Unless BRK (which I'll dump at some point) owns some tech company, or some mutual fund does, I don't think I own any. I sold puts on Radio Shack. I shorted Blackberry, and then went long. I day traded some tech stocks during the Chinese "crisis." But that's it. When I was still somewhat trading, I kept shorting Salesforce (I think that's what it was) and it kept going up, and I took some losses. Got pissed, and mostly swore off all of these types of companies. Furthering my prejudices, and furthering my inability to consider buying a solid growth company in this sector, or sectors.
I'm not sure I'm making a point, but I sort of understand FB. I understand BBRY. I've thought through Amazon due to this thread, and I think I understand the appeal better.
But with respect to Twitter, and LinkedIn, I just don't get it, and to me it still seems like a pure play on advertising, which is really a retail thing, and I've always avoided retail. I actually hate (prejudice) LinkedIn and I guess I can't ever envision myself buying it as an investment.
So maybe what I'm trying to say is that I never buy companies or industries I don't understand, but this has potentially cost me opportunity over the years. But not buying what I don't understand has also served me very well.
But here's the rub, I maintain I have a balanced portfolio. And when I say portfolio, I'm talking about assets classes, not just a stock portfolio. But do I really? Maybe not 100%. And if I don't, why is that?
Certainly a wall of text, but I'm guessing people on here about my age might also be hesitant to place money in something due to age and life experience that is largely a mysterious, and sometimes scary sector.
In my case due to ignorance, and apparently an unwillingness to learn.
Prejudices, preconceived notions, fear of the unknown, unwillingness to learn and contempt prior to investigation. How does this impact what I invest in? While I think I'm open to new and upcoming opportunities. But the fact is, I must not be, becuase my portfolio doesn't reflect this with respect to technology and social media.
I'm 49. A lot of technology has transpired after I got out of college. I automated my business early, and updated often. I had a mobile phone when they cost big dollars, and they were big sized. I moved to upload/download with our vendors early, and we had email, and an internal server very early. Since have switched to internal and the cloud.
So do I embrace technology or not? Does this impact my portfolio?
Yes and no, and it is entirely based on my life experience, and consequently, not objective when it comes to buying any sort of equity or debt of a tech or social media company.
Unless BRK (which I'll dump at some point) owns some tech company, or some mutual fund does, I don't think I own any. I sold puts on Radio Shack. I shorted Blackberry, and then went long. I day traded some tech stocks during the Chinese "crisis." But that's it. When I was still somewhat trading, I kept shorting Salesforce (I think that's what it was) and it kept going up, and I took some losses. Got pissed, and mostly swore off all of these types of companies. Furthering my prejudices, and furthering my inability to consider buying a solid growth company in this sector, or sectors.
I'm not sure I'm making a point, but I sort of understand FB. I understand BBRY. I've thought through Amazon due to this thread, and I think I understand the appeal better.
But with respect to Twitter, and LinkedIn, I just don't get it, and to me it still seems like a pure play on advertising, which is really a retail thing, and I've always avoided retail. I actually hate (prejudice) LinkedIn and I guess I can't ever envision myself buying it as an investment.
So maybe what I'm trying to say is that I never buy companies or industries I don't understand, but this has potentially cost me opportunity over the years. But not buying what I don't understand has also served me very well.
But here's the rub, I maintain I have a balanced portfolio. And when I say portfolio, I'm talking about assets classes, not just a stock portfolio. But do I really? Maybe not 100%. And if I don't, why is that?
Certainly a wall of text, but I'm guessing people on here about my age might also be hesitant to place money in something due to age and life experience that is largely a mysterious, and sometimes scary sector.
In my case due to ignorance, and apparently an unwillingness to learn.
Posted on 5/1/16 at 11:04 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I'm not sure I'm making a point, but I sort of understand FB. I understand BBRY. I've thought through Amazon due to this thread, and I think I understand the appeal better.
But with respect to Twitter, and LinkedIn, I just don't get it, and to me it still seems like a pure play on advertising, which is really a retail thing, and I've always avoided retail. I actually hate (prejudice) LinkedIn and I guess I can't ever envision myself buying it as an investment.
Millennials like my wife love Amazon and are only going to use it more. Buying online is always preferred to having to go to the store. My mom's generation is writing checks at Wal-Mart/Target. My generation is paying for everything with credit card online. My younger sister is even worse.
Totally agree about LinkedIn and Twitter. Old people are keeping Facebook going
Posted on 5/1/16 at 11:48 am to Iowa Golfer
You seem like you like to talk about yourself a bunch. 
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