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Message
AAPL Earnings
Posted on 7/30/18 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 7/30/18 at 12:33 pm
Sell or buy today?
2
Posted on 7/30/18 at 12:41 pm to hottub
Hold.
I think you’ll see a sell-off. Trade war, demand wearing. I’d probably expect a slight revision down on year-end guidance. The next iteration of the iPhone will be crucial in determining the future of Apple as a continued visionary leader in tech, or if they’re comfortable with incremental modifications of the iPhone.
I think you’ll see a sell-off. Trade war, demand wearing. I’d probably expect a slight revision down on year-end guidance. The next iteration of the iPhone will be crucial in determining the future of Apple as a continued visionary leader in tech, or if they’re comfortable with incremental modifications of the iPhone.
This post was edited on 7/30/18 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 7/30/18 at 3:05 pm to southernelite
quote:
The next iteration of the iPhone will be crucial in determining the future of Apple as a continued visionary leader in tech, or if they’re comfortable with incremental modifications of the iPhone.
Hasn't everyone said this same thing for years now?
This post was edited on 7/30/18 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 7/30/18 at 3:11 pm to lnomm34
quote:
Hasn't everyone said this same thing for years now?
Sure, but they were wrong. Most of the previous versions of the iPhone had a certain hype behind them and the sales always crushed.
The difference was, for the first time with iPhone 10, the demand was steady, at best, and the hype waned quickly. Another tepid phone release from Apple and I think it’s fair to question their continued innovative edge on the competition.
Posted on 7/30/18 at 4:09 pm to southernelite
quote:
Sure, but they were wrong. Most of the previous versions of the iPhone had a certain hype behind them and the sales always crushed.
The difference was, for the first time with iPhone 10, the demand was steady, at best, and the hype waned quickly. Another tepid phone release from Apple and I think it’s fair to question their continued innovative edge on the competition.
bla bla bla
Posted on 7/30/18 at 4:34 pm to southernelite
Innovation isn’t what floats Apple any longer, instead, it is the network effect of the entire platform integrating seamlessly. As long as the iPhone is on par with the competition (meaning it doesn’t need to be revolutionary), then Apple users will stick around because it is simply too difficult to switch.
Eventually, consumers will purchase the next iteration of the iPhone and really what Apple needs to try to do is shorten the length of time between upgrades.
Eventually, consumers will purchase the next iteration of the iPhone and really what Apple needs to try to do is shorten the length of time between upgrades.
Posted on 7/30/18 at 4:37 pm to Chad504boy
Excellent analysis and contradiction, Chad.
Posted on 7/30/18 at 4:41 pm to lynxcat
Right, but the phones are getting harder and harder for people to justify giving up what they currently have. Especially with network contracts no longer handing out free/reduced phones. There used to be a large incentive for people to grab Apples “next big thing”, but that strategy isn’t working. I agree that people will keep buying iPhones, but the days of Apple putting up blockbuster numbers I think are largely behind them.
Posted on 7/30/18 at 5:40 pm to southernelite
quote:
the days of Apple putting up blockbuster numbers I think are largely behind them
To be clear they’re still growing profits. Just sustaining current returns justify their price.
Posted on 7/30/18 at 6:08 pm to C
Which is why, at this time, I’m not buying or selling. If I have it, I’m holding. Which is what I said from the beginning.
Posted on 7/30/18 at 7:05 pm to southernelite
You are saying things I read 5 years ago.
Posted on 7/31/18 at 3:04 pm to southernelite
quote:
but the days of Apple putting up blockbuster numbers I think are largely behind them.
This is a pretty uninformed take on Apple's future, it has been known that the iPhone sales growth story had an end date. Apple's future growth is going to be tied to the growth of Apple Services.
The importance of iPhone sales though is the problem with Apple Services being the growth driver. The Services foundation is built on the use of Apple's ecosystem. So any slowdown in iPhone sales is a potential crack in the foundation that can cause the house to fall
With Apple Services having profit margin estimates of some 70-80+% and revenue growth of ~20%+ YOY, Apple maintaining their market position is really all they need to do to continue to put up blockbuster numbers
quote:
but the phones are getting harder and harder for people to justify giving up what they currently have
As long as what they have is an iPhone, it is very likely that Apple doesn't hate this outcome given it ties customers to their ecosystem.
Putting out a higher price tag, long life cycle phone in hindsight actually looks like a shift in strategy to lock people in to the ecosystem
This post was edited on 7/31/18 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 7/31/18 at 3:27 pm to GenesChin
And here we go
Posted on 7/31/18 at 3:31 pm to castorinho
Q3 EPS $2.34 vs est. $2.18
revenues $53.27B vs est. $52.34B
revenues $53.27B vs est. $52.34B
Posted on 7/31/18 at 3:49 pm to castorinho
Up $4.50 in after hours
Posted on 7/31/18 at 3:52 pm to tiger perry
First to a trillion.... aapl or amzn?
Posted on 7/31/18 at 3:55 pm to 632627
Amazon....but just by a little bit
Posted on 7/31/18 at 3:58 pm to plaric
Up 3% 
Posted on 7/31/18 at 4:14 pm to 632627
Amazon
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