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re: Will Mickey stay now that he's pretty much guaranteed to go undrafted?

Posted on 4/20/15 at 6:25 am to
Posted by PhillyFan1994
Member since Sep 2012
2032 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 6:25 am to
I think for a lot of those seniors and juniors the career length may be shorter. Keep in mind that arguably the most attractive attribute a player can have for NBA teams is high potential (A high ceiling) and older players are perceived to have a lower ceiling than underclassmen. Also the career length may only be 5 years but the average amount of money made over a career is still $24.7 million. LINK
This post was edited on 4/20/15 at 6:49 am
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25484 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 7:38 am to
quote:

Pretty much every mock draft I've seen has him at least getting drafted.

LINK (33rd)
LINK / (52nd)
LINK (56th)


Once they actually start examining his game, he'll drop drastically. These mocks mean nothing until they bring guys in and start seeing what they can really do, and Mickey can't really do anything in a NBA game. I doubt any of these services have actually looked specifically at Mickey and made an evaluation yet.
His ceiling is Dante Cunningham, and he's not even as good of a shooter as he is, nor close to the defender he is.
If he gets drafted, I'd be shocked. He cannot play PF, can not. He cannot guard a SF. He can't dribble, and his shot is extremely inconsistent. Teams are more willing to go draft some Euro guy that they know will never pan out just so they don't have to worry about trying him out and signing him. After pick 40, you very rarely find a guy capable of making a team, much less a role player.
Posted by cajunjj
Madison, AL
Member since May 2008
7427 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 9:16 am to
Gone Gone Gone.
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
18136 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Also the career length may only be 5 years but the average amount of money made over a career is still $24.7 million. LINK


That average of $24.7 million is HIGHLY skewed by the monster contracts of the high-end players. Most players who are only in the league for 5 years won't make anywhere close to that much.
Posted by LSU 318 LSU
El Cerrito Place
Member since Jan 2011
4278 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 10:14 am to
He likes the Chinese womens
Posted by T
Member since Jan 2004
9889 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 10:48 am to
quote:

Want to take a guess why the average NBA career is 5 years?


Where did that number come from. It doesn't sound correct.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20009 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 10:59 am to
quote:

Also I don't know if most of you realize but for most college basketball players the longer you stay in college the lower your draft stock will be


So, you are asserting that staying in college actually reduces draft stock? Could it be those players are simply behind more talented players, that would be drafted higher whether they were a high scool or college senior?

quote:

The average NBA career is a little under 5 years and NBA teams want to get guys out of college as young as possible which is why most upperclassmen go in the second round anyway


Again, this is a logical fallacy. The NBA would prefer to draft guys that are more than less developed. They simply draft the most talented players. So kids with a high potential of being in that group leave early every year, pushing less talented kids later in the draft, or convince those kids to stay in school until their eligibilty is exhausted. In other words, those kids would never have been drafted higher as underclassmen than they would as upperclassmen.

To purport that the NBA stays away from older players is a bit crazy, when we are talking a 1-2 year age difference. A guy like Ben Simmons doesnt just slip out of the lottery because he has played 3-4 years in college rather than 1.

Mickey was a top 50 type of talent in HS. Coming out as a sophomore, he still seems to be around that top 50 in talent in terms of the draft. The fact is, not qll of these guys will ever be good enough to play at the NBA level.

I think the bottom line here regarding guys like Mickey, is how much effect does staying in college have on your overall earning power over time? Eurpean salaries are no nearly as high as the NBA. It varies a tremendous amount, but an average of 100k seems to be a fair amount for a fringe NBA type guy. A 10-day contract in the NBA essentially results in that amount of money any given year. So the question becomes, how long do you expect your career to last? In Europe, you are playing bball for money, and that is it. You aren't building relationships, your career is not visible in the media, you are simply playing for money, and not enough that you would never have to work again. One NBA contract, and you actually will make 2-5M. My main point is that going to play in Europe whenever you can is a bit short sighted
Posted by Northeast
Member since Sep 2014
67 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 11:02 am to
Mickey made the right call.

He would have hardly touched the ball next year with the talent LSU has coming in.



This post was edited on 4/20/15 at 11:05 am
Posted by tadelatt
Buga Nation
Member since Jan 2010
12255 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 11:02 am to
I love how I have said this about 1 million times on here and people wanted to argue against me yet everyone is finally starting to see what Ive been saying all along...

He should not have left early
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20009 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 11:05 am to
quote:

Where did that number come from. It doesn't sound correct.


Its not far off, but is under the current average by ~1.5 years
Posted by PhillyFan1994
Member since Sep 2012
2032 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:29 pm to
Posted by PhillyFan1994
Member since Sep 2012
2032 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:37 pm to
It's a known fact that younger players are more coveted not because they're simply better but because of their potential. Kaminsky is arguably a better player than Okafor or Towns right now but the fact that he's older makes him less coveted than the other two. Nbadraft.net basically said this in their scouting report on him. "The fact that he didn;t really do anything in his first two seasons in college is also a slight concern. Is he just a late bloomer, or is he taking advantage of players younger than himself as an upperclassman?"

LINK

And also like I said previously the average NBA career is shorter than most would expect anyway so that 1-3 year difference could make a bigger impact than you would think. Consider the fact that Lebron is only 3 years younger than Dwyane Wade. We all know that Lebron is currently at a better stage athletically than DWade partly because he is younger. Youth is coveted in the league because of the potential factor and the longevity issue
Posted by 337Tigah
Premium Access
Member since Aug 2014
2563 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 2:34 pm to
Apparently that dumbass funding website that ppl thought would keep him and Martin here with. Lmao
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20009 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

It's a known fact that younger players are more coveted not because they're simply better but because of their potential.


Ok, its a known fact, I didnt realize. So knowing less about a player, due to lack of comparative exposure, actually makes one more valuable.

quote:

Kaminsky is arguably a better player than Okafor or Towns right now but the fact that he's older makes him less coveted than the other two.


So this is my point; would Kaminsky have ever been considered a player with more potential than those other guys? Are you really saying that he will likely not get drafted before those guys, strictly because he is older? Would he have been any better off having come out earlier in his college career?

quote:

And also like I said previously the average NBA career is shorter than most would expect anyway so that 1-3 year difference could make a bigger impact than you would think. Consider the fact that Lebron is only 3 years younger than Dwyane Wade. We all know that Lebron is currently at a better stage athletically than DWade partly because he is younger. Youth is coveted in the league because of the potential factor and the longevity issue


I dont understand this example. Are you trying to say that lebron is more valuable than d wade because he is younger, right now? That makes no sense at all. Are you telling me you get to draft a basketball team, the world is the draft pool, but you are picking klay thompson over lebron bc he is younger?

Sure, all else equal, you would prefer youth in an athletic profession, but that is rarely the case.
Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
43092 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

I love how I have said this about 1 million times on here and people wanted to argue against me yet everyone is finally starting to see what Ive been saying all along...

He should not have left early
You're a true visionary. I think you're the only one who said he shouldn't have left.
Posted by PhillyFan1994
Member since Sep 2012
2032 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

Ok, its a known fact, I didnt realize. So knowing less about a player, due to lack of comparative exposure, actually makes one more valuable.


Being in college longer doesn't really add much to a scout's knowledge of a player unless the player's abilities change significantly. With Kaminsky this was the case, with Mickey I don't believe it would be. Most of these guys have been seen by NBA scouts since high school. The scouts feel like they know what they need to know.

quote:

So this is my point; would Kaminsky have ever been considered a player with more potential than those other guys? Are you really saying that he will likely not get drafted before those guys, strictly because he is older? Would he have been any better off having come out earlier in his college career?


If Kaminsky dominated in college his Freshman year like he did this year he would be in the discussion for top pick just like Okafor and Towns. He wouldn't have been better coming out earlier because he wasn't as good as a freshman as Okafor is. That's the difference age makes. There is a reason the last senior to be drafted #1 overall was Kenyon Martin 15 years ago. Younger players are more coveted than older players if their abilities are equal.
quote:

dont understand this example. Are you trying to say that lebron is more valuable than d wade because he is younger, right now? That makes no sense at all. Are you telling me you get to draft a basketball team, the world is the draft pool, but you are picking klay thompson over lebron bc he is younger?

No I would not draft Klay before Lebron because he isn't nearly as good a player, but I'm sure some GMs would draft Durant over Lebron because he is close in talent but younger. That's the only point i'm trying to make. In two players with relatively equal abilities age plays a big difference.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
20009 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 4:31 pm to
quote:

That's the only point i'm trying to make. In two players with relatively equal abilities age plays a big difference.


It seems like you are changing the argument. Earlier you made some comments that basically conveyed "younger players are drafted on potential...Kaminsky is arguablu a better player than okafor/towns, but bc he is older, likely won't be drafted as high". I take that to say he has less potential as the other guys. That's quite a bit different than saying "this pick is for my franchise player, id rather pick a guy younger with more longevity".
quote:

There is a reason the last senior to be drafted #1 overall was Kenyon Martin 15 years ago. Younger players are more coveted than older players if their abilities are equal.


No. It is because the best players leave early. Anthony Davis would have been the #1 pick the last four years.

I mean you have said it multiple times that an NBA career is short, maybe 5 years. If we are talking about a 2nd rounder, a fringe NBA guy, drafting on eventual potential is rather silly as the likliehood that that player stays on your team, much less the NBA, is relatively low.

Now, it could certainly be argued leaving early is in the players best interest, but it doesnt mean much for the team.
Posted by El Campo Tiger
El Campo, TX
Member since Mar 2015
10118 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 5:07 pm to
Mickey is a choke artist. I hope he doesn't come back.

Posted by boxcar willie
kenner
Member since Mar 2011
16035 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 6:04 pm to
other than the very top picks (and even then potential plays a huge role), the NBA is drafting on potential. May seem silly to some on here, but that's just how it works. If Mickeys dream is to play in the NBA, then delaying his start into professional basketball (even if it is in Europe or the D league) by staying in college does nothing to help him achieve his dream. Perhaps he feels the time has come for him to fully devote himself to basketball.
Posted by chity
Chicago, Il
Member since Dec 2008
6078 posts
Posted on 4/20/15 at 7:43 pm to
Mickey was never the same after the TA&M game. They pushed him around a revealed him as a soft player.

He will never make it in the NBA ( or college, or anywhere ) until he toughens up.
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