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Who to root for in the conference tournaments- Surviving the bubble
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:24 am
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:24 am
There has been much debate over the status of our beloved LSU Tigers as we inch closer and closer to March Madness. We know that a win in the SEC tournament would likely seal the deal. Even without that win, we will still be on the right side of the bubble UNLESS things get crazy in conference tournaments and teams start stealing bids. So far we have made out pretty well- Northern Iowa's win over Illinois State was big for us. Belmont beating Murray State isn't ideal, but Murray State's at-large chances are pretty poor so it's not a big deal.
Moving forward, these are the teams to root for in each tournament...
AAC: SMU, Cincinnati. Temple or Tulsa may get in as at-larges but are probably behind us on the bubble.
ACC: Duke, UVA, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State. An early exit for Miami probably wouldn't be a bad thing as they could make up some nice RPI ground with a run.
A-10: VCU, Davidson, Dayton.
BIG EAST: Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, Xavier, St John's.
BIG 10: Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State. Purdue is probably in as well. Root against Indiana and Illinois, our fellow bubble teams.
BIG 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia (root extra hard for them obviously). I think we're ahead of both Okie State and Texas but it wouldn't hurt for them to leave early.
MOUNTAIN WEST: SDSU. Colorado State would also not be the end of the world because they have a good shot at an at-large as well.
PAC 12: Arizona, Utah, Oregon.
CONFERENCE USA: Old Dominion.
SEC: Obviously LSU. Other than us- Kentucky, Arky, Georgia Root against: A&M, Ole Miss
WEST COAST: Gonzaga. BYU is likely in but might vault ahead of us with a win.
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F. Austin.
Any conference not listed is widely believed to be a 1 bid league.
Thanks to BBAP for pointing out a few flaws- I thought Ole Miss had a better RPI than they actually do. Also added SFA.
Moving forward, these are the teams to root for in each tournament...
AAC: SMU, Cincinnati. Temple or Tulsa may get in as at-larges but are probably behind us on the bubble.
ACC: Duke, UVA, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State. An early exit for Miami probably wouldn't be a bad thing as they could make up some nice RPI ground with a run.
A-10: VCU, Davidson, Dayton.
BIG EAST: Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, Xavier, St John's.
BIG 10: Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State. Purdue is probably in as well. Root against Indiana and Illinois, our fellow bubble teams.
BIG 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia (root extra hard for them obviously). I think we're ahead of both Okie State and Texas but it wouldn't hurt for them to leave early.
MOUNTAIN WEST: SDSU. Colorado State would also not be the end of the world because they have a good shot at an at-large as well.
PAC 12: Arizona, Utah, Oregon.
CONFERENCE USA: Old Dominion.
SEC: Obviously LSU. Other than us- Kentucky, Arky, Georgia Root against: A&M, Ole Miss
WEST COAST: Gonzaga. BYU is likely in but might vault ahead of us with a win.
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F. Austin.
Any conference not listed is widely believed to be a 1 bid league.
Thanks to BBAP for pointing out a few flaws- I thought Ole Miss had a better RPI than they actually do. Also added SFA.
This post was edited on 3/10/15 at 1:17 pm
13
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:27 am to DallasTiger45
Solid
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:30 am to DallasTiger45
Good summary. Hopefully we solidify our spot on Friday and don't have to worry about any of this. We should be in regardless, but the way it is right now, there's always the possibility of a snub.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:48 am to CheerWhine
LSU is not on the bubble. Who cares who else gets in.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:49 am to CheerWhine
Yep. I'd also like to avoid the play-in games.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:50 am to CheerWhine
quote:
Good summary. Hopefully we solidify our spot on Friday and don't have to worry about any of this. We should be in regardless, but the way it is right now, there's always the possibility of a snub.
And someone WILL be snubbed. I don't believe it will be us, but by the very nature of the selection process, there will be several teams left out who can make a solid case for having been included. It's part of the fun.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:58 am to TIGERSby10
quote:
LSU is not on the bubble. Who cares who else gets in
LSU is in good shape, but with a RPI at 48, a SOS of 86 and a Non. Conf. SOS of 174 they are not a "lock" by any means.
It's not the bad losses that hurt LSU so much, as much as it is the pretty weak SOS
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:00 am to Alt26
Hopefully we start to schedule more challenging nonconference games- sprinkle in a few more solid Power 5 teams.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:09 am to DallasTiger45
LSU needs to root against BYU tonight.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:10 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
SEC: Obviously LSU. Other than us- Kentucky, Arky, Georgia, Ole Miss? (gross) Root against: A&M.
LSU needs to be rooting against Ole Miss, not for. They're 1 spot behind LSU on the last four bye line.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:13 am to bbap
quote:
LSU needs to root against BYU tonight.
BYU is likely in, but, yes, a Gonzaga win is a better result.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:15 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
BYU is likely in, but, yes, a Gonzaga win is a better result.
They're in but Lunardi has them in a play in game. A win over Gonzaga very well vaults them out of the play in game and moves LSU and others that much closer to it.
LSU needs Gonzaga to win.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:16 am to bbap
quote:
LSU needs to root against BYU tonight.
True, Gonzaga will be a bid stealer if they don't win the WCC. Should probably add Gonzaga to the OP.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:18 am to CheerWhine
both teams are probably making it so no bids will likely get stolen. see above for explanation on why to root for gonzaga though.
This post was edited on 3/10/15 at 11:20 am
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:23 am to bbap
quote:
They're in but Lunardi has them in a play in game.
Didn't realize this. Will edit accordingly.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:23 am to DallasTiger45
Much needed thread. I just haven't had the will to start it.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:26 am to DallasTiger45
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 11:56 am
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:28 am to msutiger
Old Dominion is likely not getting an at-large, but they have a better shot at it than anyone else in CUSA. That's all my post is trying to indicate.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:30 am to TIGERSby10
quote:
LSU is not on the bubble. Who cares who else gets in.
Yes they are. 3 good wins + 1 good loss - a bad SOS - a mediocre RPI - 2 bad losses - 5 terrible losses - home losses. All this equals bubble.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:39 am to msutiger
quote:
I hate to burst the bubble here, but Old Dominion is not winning the C-USA tournament. Honestly, they are pretty overrated. They are dominant on their home floor but meh elsewhere. I think UTEP will take them down in the semi finals.
Thanks for your prediction in a thread that has nothing to do with predictions.
Insecure much?
This post was edited on 3/10/15 at 11:41 am
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