Started By
Message

Was LSU one of 10 unluckiest teams last season?: Ron Higgins

Posted on 2/24/15 at 2:54 pm
Posted by blackjackjackson
fourth dimension
Member since May 2008
7674 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 2:54 pm
LINK


Wunderlich used Pythagorean expectation to determine that the Tigers were the SEC's second unluckiest team in 2014 and 118th unluckiest among 125 FBS teams.

The Pythagorean expectation is by using the total of points scored and points allowed by a team, you can estimate a team's winning percentage. Multiply that by the number of games played to get a projected win total (Pythagorean wins). The difference between the estimated numbers of wins and the actual win count is considered to be luck.

Using this formula, Wunderlich calculated LSU at a minus 1.69 luck factor, only ahead in the SEC of Arkansas' minus 2.99, which made the Razorbacks the unluckiest major college team in the nation last season.
This post was edited on 2/24/15 at 2:55 pm
Posted by FalseProphet
Mecca
Member since Dec 2011
11706 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:03 pm to
Why do people take the time to come up with meaningless stuff like this?
Posted by Random LSU Hero
2014 NFL Survivor Champion (17-0)
Member since Aug 2011
9433 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

Why do people take the time to come up with meaningless stuff like this?

whats wrong with breaking down some numbers and theories?


quote:

Funroe


ahhh, say no more. I understand
Posted by LSUTIGERS8181
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2012
9988 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:15 pm to
Nothing about luck. It's about having a qb or not.
Posted by VernonPLSUfan
Leesville, La.
Member since Sep 2007
15815 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:35 pm to
Unlucky by not having a suitable qb.
Posted by MetryTyger
Metro NOLA, LA
Member since Jan 2004
15580 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:38 pm to
I would say we were unlucky in 2 of our losses - bama and ND.
Bama: If Miles has time to throw the challenge flag after Cooper's trapped catch near the end of regulation, it may have been overturned and it's 4th down. (Notice how quickly bama ran up to the line to snap the ball.)
ND: If we don't have a lame duck DC we may have put them away earlier...
Posted by gene_parmesan
Member since Jan 2014
247 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:41 pm to
apparently all that bad luck didnt stop arkansas from embarrassing LSU.

I think it had more to do with being "bad", not "bad luck"
Posted by therick711
South
Member since Jan 2008
25059 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

I would say we were unlucky in 2 of our losses - bama and ND.


We were unlucky against Arkansas. Six points in missed gimme field goals, a touchdown lost by Jennings fumbling going in. Held the hogs under 100 yards rushing and lost. Ugh.
Posted by DrD
Houston
Member since Jan 2010
2609 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:45 pm to
Well said!!!!
Posted by funnystuff
Member since Nov 2012
8324 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

whats wrong with breaking down some numbers and theories?
There is nothing to indicate that the numbers calculated are a meaningful measure of "luck". It's simply a shitty stat.

It's not a waste of time on behalf of the author because he is still getting people to read it. But it is certainly meaningless as far as statistics go (or at the very least, it has a very different meaning than the one the author claims)
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:46 pm to
I'd say losing your starting C on the first series counts as bad luck.
Posted by Hurricane Mike
Member since Jun 2008
20059 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:48 pm to
Luck didn't have a whole lot to do with picking the starting QB
Posted by MetryTyger
Metro NOLA, LA
Member since Jan 2004
15580 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

therick711
Was LSU one of 10 unluckiest teams last season?: Ron Higgins

quote:

I would say we were unlucky in 2 of our losses - bama and ND.

We were unlucky against Arkansas. Six points in missed gimme field goals, a touchdown lost by Jennings fumbling going in. Held the hogs under 100 yards rushing and lost. Ugh.





That's true too. That's 13 points we could have had and possibly had a chance to win. Good point.
Posted by Guava Jelly
Bawston
Member since Jul 2009
11651 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 3:52 pm to
We were a few decent bounces away from beating Notre Dame, Bama and Arky (which would have brought us to 11 wins).

I'd say that's pretty goddamn unlucky.
Posted by munchman
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
10321 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 4:07 pm to
Good Teams create their own luck....can't go there with you.
Posted by gene_parmesan
Member since Jan 2014
247 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 4:19 pm to
quote:

I'd say losing your starting C on the first series counts as bad luck.


What does a guy have to do to get benched?

I realize this was a total team effort. Colby Delahoussaye missed two field goals. Terrence Magee led the team in rushing with 24 yards. TWENTY FOUR. The defense allowed Arkansas to convert 10 of 17 3rd downs. No one covered themselves in glory tonight.

But holy hell, was Anthony Jennings terrible. He's been terrible all year, but this was sort of his perverse masterpiece of miserable quarterback play. Jennings couldn't do anything right, and worse yet, both coaching staffs knew it.

Arkansas put about 10 defenders in the box on every play, begging LSU to pass, but knowing that the quarterback couldn't hurt them. Even when he did complete passes, like he did to start the game, he went 5 of 5 for 33 yards, which isn't that great. He completed a few checkdown routes and when that dried up, so did any bit of offense.

LSU also knew Jennings couldn't do anything, and the coaching staff actively game-planned around his inability to throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field with any accuracy. The longest passing play on the game for LSU was for 14 yards. And that came with 3 minutes left with the game out of hand. This means LSU's best passing play is when Jennings overthrew DeSean Smith and got him exposed for a blow to the head, and a 15 yard penalty on the Hogs.

Jennings finished the game 12 for 22 for 87 yards, plus 14 rushing yards and a fumble. That's less than 100 yards of total offense, which is almost incalculably awful. There's nothing positive to build on here.

Yet Les Miles kept trotting him out there for every series despite a demonstrated inability to run a competent offense. There is no excuse tonight. No drops. No poor game situation. This was just a quarterback going out there and practically daring his coach to bench him with his play.
This post was edited on 2/24/15 at 4:20 pm
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
73470 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 4:22 pm to
Luck hates LSU
Posted by CubsFanBudMan
Member since Jul 2008
5060 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

whats wrong with breaking down some numbers and theories?


The theory is that losing a close game is unlucky. The actual plays that happen in the game, and other circumstances surrounding the game are not factored in at all. In his theory, if you win every game that you are favored in by 20, and lose every game that you are an underdog in by 1, then you are a very unlucky team.

Imagine a game between 2 teams. Team A has an above average pass offense and an average run offense. Team B has a below average pass offense and an above average run offense. Team A is favored by 14. The weather conditions are very wet and windy, and team A wins by 2. In reality, team B was lucky to be in the game at the end, but based on the theory, they were unlucky to lose the game.
Posted by MetryTyger
Metro NOLA, LA
Member since Jan 2004
15580 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 4:57 pm to
quote:

LSU Patrick
Was LSU one of 10 unluckiest teams last season?: Ron Higgins


Luck hates LSU




No not really. He did go to LSU (Leland Stanford University)
Posted by Tiger79
Zachary
Member since Apr 2009
7349 posts
Posted on 2/24/15 at 5:02 pm to
It's called coaches who don't prepare their quarterbacks. That's all plain and simple.
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 2Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram