I will try to list the teams up for discussion for a National Seed, and break each one of them down. Pretty Much Locked in:
1. Oregon State - 45-4 (27-3) - #1 RPI - 61 SOS -
10-0 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st place in Pac 12 -
vs. Abilene Christian (4 game series) Trending - Same. They really don't have anywhere to go but down. SOS is starting to look ugly, and will only get worse.
2. Louisville - 47-9 (23-6) - #5 RPI - 76 SOS -
12-7 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st place in Atlantic -
1st overall in ACC -
vs. Notre Dame (ACC Tourney) W - 10-3
vs. FSU (ACC Tourney) Trending: Up. Louisville doesn't sport the best SOS, but they have a ACC crown and enough wins to secure a spot.
3. North Carolina - 45-11 (23-7) - #2 RPI - 19 SOS -
19-6 vs Top 50 RPI - 1st place in Coastal -
2nd overall in ACC
vs. Boston College (ACC Tourney) W - 10-0
vs. NC State (ACC Tourney) Trending: Same. Not much changing with UNC. They will be a national seed regardless of their showing in the ACC Tournament..
6. Florida - 41-15 (21-9) - #3 RPI - 2 SOS -
19-11 vs. top 50 RPI - 1st SEC East -
Tie 1st SEC
vs. Auburn (SEC Tourney) W - 5-4
vs. Miss St (SEC Tourney) Trending - Up. Doesn't matter what they do the rest of the way. UF is a national seed. They can probably play their way up to the #2 national seed spot, if they even care to.
5. Texas Tech - 43-14 (16-8) - #4 RPI - 26 SOS -
16-10 vs. Top 50 RPI - Tie 1st place in Big 12
vs. Oklahoma St (Big 12 Tourney) L 0-3
vs. Baylor (Big 12 Tourney) W- 4-1
vs. W. Virginia (Big 12 Tourney) Trending - UP. Texas Tech is pretty much doing everything they have to in order to remain a national seed. I am ready to say Tech is locked in.
4. TCU - 40-15 (16-8) - #8 RPI - 33 SOS -
16-8 vs. Top 50 RPI - Tie 1st place in Big 12 -
vs. Kansas (Big 12 Tourney) L- 3-7
vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Tourney) W - 9-4
vs. Kansas Trending - Up. TCU got bumped down to "pretty safe" yesterday, but they are right back into the locked in position.
8. LSU - 40-17 (21-9) - #6 RPI - 9 SOS -
21-13 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st SEC West -
Tie 1st SEC
vs. Mizzou (SEC Tourney) W - 10-3
vs. Kentucky (SEC Tourney) W - 10-0 Trending - Up. Absolute STONE COLD LOCK. I wasn't ready yesterday to call LSU a lock, but the win over Kentucky did it. Now the only question is, how high of a national seed can LSU get. Fighting for a spot
7. Kentucky - 39-18 (19-11) - #7 RPI - 5 SOS-
17-13 vs. Top 50 RPI - 2nd SEC East -
vs. South Carolina (SEC Tourney) W - 7-2
vs. LSU (SEC Tourney) L - 0-10
vs. S. Carolina (SEC Tourney) Trending - Same. Kentucky is now in a fight for the final spot with 2 other teams. They will likely finish with the best resume, but it will still take some work in the SEC tournament to get in.
10. Stanford - 37-14 (18-9) - #9 RPI - 36 SOS -
10-8 vs. Top 50 RPI - 2nd in Pac 12
vs. Washington State (3 game series) Trending - Up. Stanford has been winning a lot of games lately, and gets the benefit of playing Washington State in a series next weekend, instead of a conference tournament. Taking 2 of 3 from WAZU would put them in a pretty good spot for a national seed.
11. Southern Miss - 44-11 (25-5) - #10 RPI - 66 SOS-
11-5 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st in CUSA-
vs. UTSA (CUSA Tourney) L - 2-9
vs. Louisiana Tech (CUSA Tourney) W- 5-2
vs. UTSA (CUSA Tourney) Trending: Down. Southern Miss has been red hot, but with such a weak SOS, they can't afford any loses. It hurts to lose that first game of the CUSA Tournament. The good news for Southern Miss is that winning this tournament should not be difficult to do, even after a first round loss. If they don't win it, they have no chance. If they do win it, they may find themselves in the discussion. USM needs their high RPI wins to continue winning to help boost their RPI. Unlikely candidates
12. Wake Forest - 39-17 (19-11) - #12 RPI - 32 SOS -
10-9 vs. Top 50 RPI - 2nd Atlantic Div.
vs. Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney) W - 5-4
vs. Miami (ACC Tourney) Trending - Same. Wake Forest is doing enough to not move out of the picture, but is also not doing enough to get them into a better position. They really can't afford to lose if they want to remain in the National Seed discussion.
13. Baylor - REMOVED FROM DISCUSSION
14. Clemson - REMOVED FROM DISCUSSION My Predictions as of Sunday 5/21
1. Oregon State
5. Texas Tech
10. Southern Miss
11. Wake Forest
This post was edited on 5/26 at 6:39 am