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Hold That Tiger 10
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Member since Oct 2013
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The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
I will try to list the teams up for discussion for a National Seed, and break each one of them down.


Pretty Much Locked in:

1. Oregon State - 45-4 (27-3) - #1 RPI - 61 SOS -
10-0 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st place in Pac 12 -
vs. Abilene Christian (4 game series)

Trending - Same. They really don't have anywhere to go but down. SOS is starting to look ugly, and will only get worse.

2. Louisville - 47-9 (23-6) - #5 RPI - 76 SOS -
12-7 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st place in Atlantic -
1st overall in ACC -
vs. Notre Dame (ACC Tourney) W - 10-3
vs. FSU (ACC Tourney)

Trending: Up. Louisville doesn't sport the best SOS, but they have a ACC crown and enough wins to secure a spot.

3. North Carolina - 45-11 (23-7) - #2 RPI - 19 SOS -
19-6 vs Top 50 RPI - 1st place in Coastal -
2nd overall in ACC
vs. Boston College (ACC Tourney) W - 10-0
vs. NC State (ACC Tourney)

Trending: Same. Not much changing with UNC. They will be a national seed regardless of their showing in the ACC Tournament..


6. Florida - 41-15 (21-9) - #3 RPI - 2 SOS -
19-11 vs. top 50 RPI - 1st SEC East -
Tie 1st SEC
vs. Auburn (SEC Tourney) W - 5-4
vs. Miss St (SEC Tourney)

Trending - Up. Doesn't matter what they do the rest of the way. UF is a national seed. They can probably play their way up to the #2 national seed spot, if they even care to.


5. Texas Tech - 43-14 (16-8) - #4 RPI - 26 SOS -
16-10 vs. Top 50 RPI - Tie 1st place in Big 12
vs. Oklahoma St (Big 12 Tourney) L 0-3
vs. Baylor (Big 12 Tourney) W- 4-1
vs. W. Virginia (Big 12 Tourney)

Trending - UP. Texas Tech is pretty much doing everything they have to in order to remain a national seed. I am ready to say Tech is locked in.


4. TCU - 40-15 (16-8) - #8 RPI - 33 SOS -
16-8 vs. Top 50 RPI - Tie 1st place in Big 12 -
vs. Kansas (Big 12 Tourney) L- 3-7
vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Tourney) W - 9-4
vs. Kansas

Trending - Up. TCU got bumped down to "pretty safe" yesterday, but they are right back into the locked in position.

8. LSU - 40-17 (21-9) - #6 RPI - 9 SOS -
21-13 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st SEC West -
Tie 1st SEC
vs. Mizzou (SEC Tourney) W - 10-3
vs. Kentucky (SEC Tourney) W - 10-0

Trending - Up. Absolute STONE COLD LOCK. I wasn't ready yesterday to call LSU a lock, but the win over Kentucky did it. Now the only question is, how high of a national seed can LSU get.


Fighting for a spot


7. Kentucky - 39-18 (19-11) - #7 RPI - 5 SOS-
17-13 vs. Top 50 RPI - 2nd SEC East -
3rd SEC
vs. South Carolina (SEC Tourney) W - 7-2
vs. LSU (SEC Tourney) L - 0-10
vs. S. Carolina (SEC Tourney)

Trending - Same. Kentucky is now in a fight for the final spot with 2 other teams. They will likely finish with the best resume, but it will still take some work in the SEC tournament to get in.


10. Stanford - 37-14 (18-9) - #9 RPI - 36 SOS -
10-8 vs. Top 50 RPI - 2nd in Pac 12
vs. Washington State (3 game series)

Trending - Up. Stanford has been winning a lot of games lately, and gets the benefit of playing Washington State in a series next weekend, instead of a conference tournament. Taking 2 of 3 from WAZU would put them in a pretty good spot for a national seed.

11. Southern Miss - 44-11 (25-5) - #10 RPI - 66 SOS-
11-5 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st in CUSA-
vs. UTSA (CUSA Tourney) L - 2-9
vs. Louisiana Tech (CUSA Tourney) W- 5-2
vs. UTSA (CUSA Tourney)

Trending: Down. Southern Miss has been red hot, but with such a weak SOS, they can't afford any loses. It hurts to lose that first game of the CUSA Tournament. The good news for Southern Miss is that winning this tournament should not be difficult to do, even after a first round loss. If they don't win it, they have no chance. If they do win it, they may find themselves in the discussion. USM needs their high RPI wins to continue winning to help boost their RPI.

Unlikely candidates


12. Wake Forest - 39-17 (19-11) - #12 RPI - 32 SOS -
10-9 vs. Top 50 RPI - 2nd Atlantic Div.
3rd ACC
vs. Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney) W - 5-4
vs. Miami (ACC Tourney)

Trending - Same. Wake Forest is doing enough to not move out of the picture, but is also not doing enough to get them into a better position. They really can't afford to lose if they want to remain in the National Seed discussion.

13. Baylor - REMOVED FROM DISCUSSION

14. Clemson - REMOVED FROM DISCUSSION



My Predictions as of Sunday 5/21

1. Oregon State
2. Florida
3. UNC
4. LSU
5. Texas Tech
6. TCU
7. Louisville
8. Kentucky

Next In:
9. Stanford
10. Southern Miss
11. Wake Forest
12. Clemson

This post was edited on 5/26 at 6:39 am



safetyman
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2011
6428 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
These boys know the stakes at hand. I hope they come fired up tonight and kick MSST ass. Go up 2-0. They will be real close to locking up an national seed
This post was edited on 5/19 at 3:24 pm


Hold That Tiger 10
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
5391 posts
 Online 

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
It really comes down to what happens with us the rest of the weekend and what happens between UF/UK as well.

It kind of depends on how the committee views Florida at this point...Are they more on the "Pretty safe" line?? Which means that they don't really have to do much of anything to get a national seed at this point.

If the case is that UF has a pretty solid lock on one of the eight spots, then how do they handle things if LSU takes the SEC, and UK ends up winning the East?? Does UF remain as one of the 8? If they do, how do you leave LSU and UK out of one of the spots?


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Fishhead
LSU Fan
Ocean Springs
Member since Jan 2008
7357 posts
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re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

6. Florida - 38-15 (19-9) - #5 RPI - 3 SOS - 14-11 vs. top 50 RPI - Tie 1st SEC East - Tie 1st SEC vs. Kentucky

7. Kentucky - 38-16 (19-9) - #7 RPI - 12 SOS- 19-10 vs. Top 50 RPI - Tie 1st SEC East - Tie 1st SEC vs. Florida

8. LSU - 36-17 (19-9) - #11 RPI - 11 SOS - 19-13 vs. Top 50 RPI - 1st SEC West - Tie 1st SEC vs. Mississippi State

I've been watching this, and with UF's record against Top 50, I've been wondering why people were saying they were a lock. I don't see it. And I could be mistaken, but did they help themselves with the Stetson game they called after 4...trailing 10-0 or whatever...that didn't count?
This post was edited on 5/19 at 4:09 pm


Broski
USA Fan
Member since Jun 2011
26587 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

10-13 vs Top 50 RPI


Ooh, that's going to bite Clemson in the arse if they don't get over .500 in the ACC tourney.


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Quatre Pot
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2015
429 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
You can add Florida to pretty safe


LSU Neil
LSU Fan
Springfield
Member since Feb 2007
584 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
If we don't sweep state, we'd be better off that KY lose the next two...it would actually have been better (if we go 2-1) that KY got swept but that didn't happen.


LSU Neil
LSU Fan
Springfield
Member since Feb 2007
584 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
The good thing is clemson is dropping like a rock. They are 3-5 in their last 8 and 1-4 in the last 5, they were swept last weekend by Louisville, and are now 0-1 against NC state. We need to pull hard for NC State to sweep. That would put Clemson at 3-7 in the last 10, and 1-6 in last 7 games. The panel at one time put a lot of stock in how you finish. Hope they do again. Then FLA-KY-LSU should get the last 3


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10
Hold That Tiger 10
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
5391 posts
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re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

I've been watching this, and with UF's record against Top 50, I've been wondering why people were saying they were a lock


This is why I didn't put them in the next category above. However, that #5 RPI and 3 SOS is what stands out.

If they get a piece of the pie in the SEC in any form, then they jump into the category with Oregon State.


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Hold That Tiger 10
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
5391 posts
 Online 

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

You can add Florida to pretty safe


I explained my reasoning why I didn't put them into that category. I think they are right on the edge, however I'm not 100% certain that if they end up with a 3rd place finish in the SEC that they get in over UK and LSU. In this case I think UF would move to being the 3rd team in from the SEC, if they get 3 teams.


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Hold That Tiger 10
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
5391 posts
 Online 

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

it would actually have been better (if we go 2-1) that KY got swept


Yep but that can't be the case at this point.

Best case scenario:

- We sweep MSU and UK wins 2

Other good case:

- We take 2 of 3 from MSU (or sweep) and UF wins the next two.
This post was edited on 5/19 at 5:37 pm


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ell_13
USA Fan
Member since Apr 2013
50262 posts
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re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
Southern miss is another unlikely. 12 RPI. More top 50 wins than Clemson and Wake. 42 wins.
This post was edited on 5/19 at 5:41 pm


Hold That Tiger 10
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
5391 posts
 Online 

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

Southern miss is another unlikely. 12 RPI. More top 50 wins than Clemson and Wake. 42 wins.


Yeah, there was another team or two I could have added to this list. I just stopped there though because a few teams would have to completely fall apart while they get red hot to sneak in.

I'll keep an eye out on them and add or remove teams from the list as we move forward.


Hold That Tiger 10
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
5391 posts
 Online 

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
I think if selections were made today then 3 SEC teams get in. A lot could change in the next two days though.

Also, we don't know exactly how heavily the conference tournaments will weigh into this. That makes predicting it very difficult.


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G The Tiger Fan
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
15643 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

42 wins.
43 now ... working on 44 atm. SMTTT!


BluegrassBelle
Kentucky Fan
That's 2nd place popcorn farts, thx
Member since Nov 2010
64851 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
I'd like to think if UK can take 2/3 from Florida that winning series over two potential national seeds (LSU and IF we can Florida) as well as splitting with a locked in seed (Louisville) helps.

Clemson continuing to shite the bed helps all of us.


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ell_13
USA Fan
Member since Apr 2013
50262 posts
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re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
44 wins. And now southern Miss has a 9 RPI.


G The Tiger Fan
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
15643 posts

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
quote:

And now southern Miss has a 9 RPI.
Doesn't seem like they should move up so much beating up on UTSA, but I guess I ain't no fancy RPI mathematician.


ell_13
USA Fan
Member since Apr 2013
50262 posts
 Online 

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
Those two games aren't all that matters. Their other opponents winning. And they were road games. All helps.

Clemson also lost which means they lost this series. They're out.


Hold That Tiger 10
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
5391 posts
 Online 

re: The National Seeding picture...Updated 5/26 (updated RPI, SOS, top 50 wins)
Updated the OP with:

- updated records
- updated RPI
- updated SOS
- updated conference ranking
- updated weekend results
- added a trending section to briefly talk about where each team appears to be moving.


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