re: The early defections' sobering moment approaching: the Draft

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I just think unless you're going to move into the top half of the first round, it makes sense to get to the NFL as quick as possible so you can get through the lower rookie contract to your second contract where the potential for the big payday now waits.

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That's my impression too.

I don't really follow the details of NFL contracts well enough to know the pros and cons here, but it's strange to me that people always seem to talk as if maximizing your draft stock should be the primary motivation.

If your goal is to try to maximize your career earnings over your whole lifetime, wouldn't spending another year in the league be worth it, even if you went a round or two later?

Certainly, you don't want to try to make the jump too early and get left off a pro roster entirely--and in that sense, developing another year in college to get a better signing bonus could be viewed as a form of insurance against being a total flop--but supposing you think that you can make a roster, I don't see what the drawback is from a career professional's standpoint to getting picked a round or two lower if it also means getting an extra year of earnings in the bank.

In my opinion, I agree with the OP regarding Reid. My 2 cents

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Simple rule: if you grade 3rd or lower, you stay.....

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Why? If you will be a three or lower the following year, what is the downside for an athlete that came to school to go to the NFL going to the NFL? Being paid to do what they do is a better option than having to go to classes and being treated as a student.

Escape from poverty a year earlier and the same shot as the following year. If FA's can make a team they have a shot being a higer pick.

Sure if you have some illusion that athletes are scholars and we aren't operating a farm system for the NFL all these defections are disturbing, but it is what it is today.

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Reid can only go down - go Minter is as high as he is going to get - go Mingo projects as an NFL OLB and he won't play that position at LSU - go Montgomery is a light speed rushing DE, he could use another year but it is unlikely he could improve his stock much more - go Logan should test well, but he could definitely use another year as the man on the DL - should stay Ware is what he is - go Faulk coming off an injury wants to get paid to return from a bad injury, I would prefer to see him come back but I get wanting to move on and avoid a lattimore type of situation - go Simon is simply ready to get paid. - go

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This is the best post on this! Debatable about Logan, though. I'm ambivalent about whether he could improve his stock.

Virtually the only way to keep more for their senior season is to not play them significantly as freshmen or sophomores. It's 3 years and out either way in many cases. We had at least 3 seasons out of shepard, mingo, montgomery, reid, brockers, simon, and ware. They played for the BCSNC as sophomores last season and played one more season. This is the cycle we're in.

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just think unless you're going to move into the top half of the first round, it makes sense to get to the NFL as quick as possible so you can get through the lower rookie contract to your second contract where the potential for the big payday now waits.

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this is bad advice for the simple reason that teams do not value their 3rd round picks very highly and players taken in the 3rd round or lower are not very likely to GET that second contract. You have to produce right away or you will be shuffled off the roster and into oblivion.

You've signed up to be live on the razor's edge of the NFL. It's, unsurprisingly, 20 year old kids failing to think longterm. Everyone thinks they are the one to bust the mold and they will be the one to be awesome right away and get that huge second deal. Playing the percentages, that's not what happens. Teams essentially have nothing invested in you, and will let you go in a second. And, no, it's not a fair competition. Life's tough.

Simon is making a mistake.

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Playing the percentages, that's not what happens. Teams essentially have nothing invested in you, and will let you go in a second. And, no, it's not a fair competition. Life's tough

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You are missing 2 important points 1) some players are unlikely to improve their draft position. Having a blanket rule like if you are not 1st round you should go back is silly. Now, that does make sense for some positions, like QB and for some players. I think Simon could benefit from an extra year in college. But for a lot of players they have no room to improve and may play positions that are devauled. Kevin Minter has already graduated. He will likely be a 2-3 round pick. He plays a position that is not often taken in the top half of the first round, but with more teams playing a 3-4 that is more need for inside LB's. He also had a monster year, so its not like he can really play much better, he;s not going to get taller or faster, so what should he come back for? Maybe the chances are he won't get to the 2nd contract, but I don't see where those chances are improved with an extra year

The next point you are missing is that guys on their rookie contract work cheap. So unless a guy really, really sucks in preseason or camp, he is likely to stick around for a couple of years. At least until the draft a replacement. I really don't see how an extra year in college changes that. Guys drafted in the 4th-5th round may not stick around long, but that is probably because they are not that good to begin with, which is why they were drafted lower, not because they left early.

Look at Montee Ball, he had a really good season this year, 1800 and 22 TD's but the year before he had 1900 and 33 TD's. He was projected as a 3rd round last year and will be about that again. What did an extra year get him other than another 300+ hits at $0?