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re: Starting Poche was the correct decision, even in hindsight
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:29 am to CheerWhine
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:29 am to CheerWhine
quote:
CheerWhine
quote:
Because a best-of-7 series is exactly the same as a 4-team double elimination bracket... you have to win both of the first two to gain any real advantage.
Absolutely untrue. If you win your first game and then lose your 2nd, then instead of being forced to win 4 straight elimination games, you only have to win three straight. Winning 4 straight games is more difficult than winning 3 straight games. My math maybe off (I did graduate from Livingston Parish Public Schools).
But let's push the nuance a tad further. In a series like this, even the top flight teams have-at best-two front line starters. Winning game one guarantees you at least a third game. Which means if you win game 1, and then lose game 2, you're in the loser's bracket yes. You have to win 3 straight games yes. But-unlike if you lose the 1st game-you're in the loser's bracket in an elimination game with the least reliable starter for these teams.
Which means-if you have the sticks-you can slug your way out from there the rest of the way facing sub-par pitching.
Now, let's backtrack back to the reality of our situation. With us losing Game 1, we have to win 4 games instead of 3 straight, and the first one we have to win against a top-line starter which is far from a guarantee.
So to recap:
Win game 1/lose game 2 = Facing lower tier talent on the mound the rest of the way over 3 games with a great offense
Lose game 1 = Face top tier talent on the mount in the 1st game of 4 straight must-wins with a great offense that may be stifled in the 1st game
There is absolutely an advantage in winning Game 1 and that should have been apparent to Mainieri. He coached to win two games and by not focusing on the task at hand-beating TCU-he's screwed LSU into a more difficult position than necessary.
Coaching. Matters.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 9:30 am
3
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:31 am to GFunk
quote:But the total amount of wins is the same. win-lose-win-win-win or lose-win-win-win-win. Regardless of the order of the first 2, you still need 3 in a row after. That's the point.
If you win your first game and then lose your 2nd, then instead of being forced to win 4 straight elimination games, you only have to win three straight.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:31 am to RoaringTiger33
quote:
RoaringTiger33
quote:
Four days rest not feasible? I take it you've never watched any team play in the CWS, ever - teams almost never go more than 3 starting pitchers deep.
This ain't Skip Bertman's CWS. Dunn hasn't made it a habit to stretch guys innings and reduce their rest days at all. You can laugh and discredit all you like, but the way we handle our pitchers has absolutely changed. We can disagree if you like. I'm okay with that. But can you tell me the last time we threw a regular weekend starter on 4 days rest?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:33 am to ell_13
quote:
ell_13
quote:
But the total amount of wins is the same. win-lose-win-win-win or lose-win-win-win-win. Regardless of the order of the first 2, you still need 3 in a row after. That's the point.
I understand the math behind winning our side of the bracket. Do you understand the idea of not having to face a front-line guy in an elimination game in the loser's bracket?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:35 am to GFunk
If you start Lange, then Poche, then you have to win without either of the two. Lange can't go on short rest.
Whereas now, Poche is available again for the charge out of the losers bracket, and will be available for the championship series.
If you pitched Lange twice trying to claw out of the losers bracket, no way he is available to pitch for the championship series.
Whereas now, Poche is available again for the charge out of the losers bracket, and will be available for the championship series.
If you pitched Lange twice trying to claw out of the losers bracket, no way he is available to pitch for the championship series.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:43 am to southernelite
Wasn't Poche throwing a perfect game till those bone head errors...? 
The dude was on fire, then it went to shite after that...
The dude was on fire, then it went to shite after that...
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 9:48 am
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:44 am to southernelite
quote:
southernelite
quote:
If you start Lange, then Poche, then you have to win without either of the two. Lange can't go on short rest. Whereas now, Poche is available again for the charge out of the losers bracket, and will be available for the championship series. If you pitched Lange twice trying to claw out of the losers bracket, no way he is available to pitch for the championship series.
They've extended both of their pitch counts in the post season. You're using his poor outing as a retroactive excuse for starting him. Which doesn't work as a rationale behind doing so because if he pitches well and we extend him to 120+ which we've done in the postseason with our starters already, you aren't rolling him back out there on short rest. We all know that.
The point of the matter is that we were going to have to win a game with Bain if we lost either of the 1st two games, but now we'll have to win against a Top Line guy in the Loser's bracket (regardless of how much I like our chances against him with Lange) instead of getting the W in game 1, taking an L in game 2 and getting to feast on sub-par pitching in Game 3.
Bottom line: Win Game 1, you're guaranteed a Game 3 either on two days rest and your full complement of arms or an elimination game against a back-line starter.
There's no justification for not doing whatever it takes to win Game 1. We didn't and we made things more difficult than they need be as a result.
That's on coaching. No other way to slice it other than as a mistake.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 9:45 am
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:58 am to GFunk
Okay, you win yesterday with Lange. You lose with Poche 2nd game. 3rd game you win with Bain. Who are you pitching the 4th game to win and who are you pitching the 5th?
Poche-Lange-Bain-Poche-Wholestaff
Lange-Poche-Bain-Wholestaff-Wholestaff
Now, which would you choose?
Poche-Lange-Bain-Poche-Wholestaff
Lange-Poche-Bain-Wholestaff-Wholestaff
Now, which would you choose?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:02 am to GFunk
I get what you're trying to say but you're focusing too much on game 3 to get your point across imo. The situation in game 3 is the same in both scenarios. All you're really saying is there is extra pressure to beat one of the top line starters now because we face elimination a game earlier than the other scenario.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:04 am to southernelite
quote:
Poche-Lange-Bain-Poche-Wholestaff
This.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:05 am to southernelite
quote:
southernelite
quote:
Okay, you win yesterday with Lange. You lose with Poche 2nd game. 3rd game you win with Bain. Who are you pitching the 4th game to win and who are you pitching the 5th? Poche-Lange-Bain-Poche-Wholestaff Lange-Poche-Bain-Wholestaff-Wholestaff Now, which would you choose?
The entire point of this discussion is that we lost Game 1. You win game 1 in order to make it to Game 3 against a back-line guy.
You lose game 1 and now you're only at Game 2 facing elimination with a front-line guy.
You were going to have to win with Bain in Game 3 no matter whether you lost Game 1 or 2. The difference is that if you win Game 1 and lose Game 2, Game 3 with Bain is the first elimination game you face and its against a back-tier guy where your offense can thrive. Not a front-line reliever.
You're way past where I'm focused right now and unfortunately, that thinking is what got us into the predicament we're in. IE-You're making the same mistake Paul did. You WIN the game in front of you. Period.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 10:08 am
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:05 am to GFunk
Another way to look at it is this, I would rather have Lange over Poche on the mound in an elimination game vs CSF or Vandy's number 2 starter.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:08 am to csorre1
quote:
csorre1
quote:
Another way to look at it is this, I would rather have Lange over Poche on the mound in an elimination game vs CSF or Vandy's number 2 starter.
Another way to look at it is this: I would rather have Lange over Poche on the mound in the first game that winning would guarantee at least a third game against a back-line starter, regardless of what happened in Game 2.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:13 am to GFunk
What if Lange loses game 1? Youre in the same situation as you are now. Only Lange can't come back and pitch in the losers bracket again and then the championship series.
So you burn him trying to get into the championship series, only to have him not available for the lost important series of the year.
So you burn him trying to get into the championship series, only to have him not available for the lost important series of the year.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:15 am to GFunk
You're better than this. We played to win the tournament, now any one particular game.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:18 am to southernelite
quote:
southernelite
quote:
What if Lange loses game 1? Youre in the same situation as you are now. Only Lange can't come back and pitch in the losers bracket again and then the championship series. So you burn him trying to get into the championship series, only to have him not available for the lost important series of the year.
When you compare Poche to Lange, the more consistent, better pitcher that gives us the absolute best chance to win is Lange. My entire point is that you throw the pitcher who gives you the absolute best chance to win the game in front of you.
That pitcher is Lange. If you lose then the entire discussion is moot. But again you're trying to use a hypothetical maybe to retroactively approve Maineiri's decision-making and negate points I've made about the wisdom of putting yourself in the best position.
Lange gives you the best opportunity to win. If you do and you lose Game 2, then you've passed up every team's front line guys and you're in an elimination bracket with capable bats and backline pitching.
Instead, we lost game 1 and we're in Game 2 in an elimination game against front-line pitching.
I'll take scenario 1 over the one I outlined in the previous paragraph. Every time.
So will you. The discussion is moot. You cannot argue your way around the fact that it was a mistake. Pure and simple. You play to win the game. Period.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 10:19 am
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:21 am to GFunk
quote:This is the case in both scenarios fwiw. And our situation is even better. We have Lange.
Do you understand the idea of not having to face a front-line guy in an elimination game in the loser's bracket?
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:22 am to GFunk
quote:No one argues this. Lange is better. But when the first 2 games are weighted equally, you put your pitchers in order so that you have the best chance to win BOTH, not just game 1.
When you compare Poche to Lange, the more consistent, better pitcher that gives us the absolute best chance to win is Lange.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:22 am to GFunk
quote:
Lange gives you the best opportunity to win. If you do and you lose Game 2, then you've passed up every team's front line guys and you're in an elimination bracket with capable bats and backline pitching.
Instead, we lost game 1 and we're in Game 2 in an elimination game against front-line pitching.
These clowns won't understand this.....I gave up on them yesterday.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:26 am to GFunk
Except, they'll have their front line guy available to throw again, and you won't.
Cal St is going to abuse Eshelman, everyone knows that. The guys that pitched for TCU and Vandy yesterday can pitch again if they lose 1.
So, when their number 1 comes up again, would you rather have Poche or Wholestaff?
Cal St is going to abuse Eshelman, everyone knows that. The guys that pitched for TCU and Vandy yesterday can pitch again if they lose 1.
So, when their number 1 comes up again, would you rather have Poche or Wholestaff?
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