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Started By
Message
re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to CptBengal
quote:No. I'm right.quote:WRONG.
And when you add up those odds for the season, they indicate that LSU is likely to win 8.6 games, rounded to 9 games out of 12.
quote:Wrong. You're not even close.
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
And your math is WRONG.
If the average likelihood of winning a game is 86%, then LSU would likely win 10.32 games. I NEVER said that LSU would win 10.32 games.
If I think LSU is likely to win 8.6 game, then IF I were to calculate the average likelihood of winning a game it would be 71.66%. And for the record, I am NOT calculating that average.
quote:
That is the conclusion from your math...and as Guava pointed out, we KNOW that isnt true.
First, that is NOT the conclusion of my math.
Second, I just showed you that it's not true.
That is EXACTLY your modus operandi. You state a different conclusion than what the poster stated, then you tell them their conclusion is wrong. It's call the Straw Man Fallacy.
1
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to Salviati
quote:
(2) That 10% chance of losing cannot be ignored. It literally means that a team is likely to lose 1 out of every 10 games. Thus a team who is favored 90/10 in each game is likely to lose a game if they play 10 games.
See, this is the part I'm having a problem with. I look at it as you're favored to win 90/10 if you played the same opponent 100 times on the same day... but in reality, you only play them once. And can have only one of two results:
1-0
0-1
Then you move on to the next one... rather than the games building on each other. Again, using my earlier cause for confusion:
FLA - 80
SCAR - 70
CUSE - 90
ARKY - 65
You suggest that we'll go 3.05/4.00 = 3-1
My logic dictates that we'll go 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 4-0
Either way, 9-3 with room for movement in either direction is pretty much what we're looking at in August, so I can't take too much offense to your analysis.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:08 pm to josh336
quote:It helps to see what's inside the black box.
time and effort spent when vegas already did this calculation
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:11 pm to CptBengal
quote:Why do you keep posting bullshite?quote:Ignore me?
First Tip: Ignore CptBengal.
You cant defend the math you used. I'm using the rules of probability. You made up your own "rules" and call it an "analysis"
It would be cute if you were ten years old.
Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
Come on CptBengal, this is your big opportunity to show me up. I know you have failed every time in the past, but maybe, just maybe, you can prove me wrong this one time. Oh wouldn't that make you so happy!!
You continue to post in this thread, but you continue to fail to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:12 pm to CptBengal
quote:Why do you keep posting bullshite?
I dont need an analysis to KNOW your analysis is mathematically wrong.
I'll post the equation again for you, moron:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
NOT P(A,B,...) = P(A) + P(B)
Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
Come on CptBengal, this is your big opportunity to show me up. I know you have failed every time in the past, but maybe, just maybe, you can prove me wrong this one time. Oh wouldn't that make you so happy!!
You continue to post in this thread, but you continue to fail to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:12 pm to Salviati
quote:
No. I'm right.
No. Let's try this another way, what does the equation say in words:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
quote:
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
Wrong. You're not even close.
And your math is WRONG.
If the average likelihood of winning a game is 86%, t
You summed the probabilities....when you sum the probabilities, it MEANS that you are calculating the probability of either A or B happening. i.e., the probability of either winning game A or winning game B. Therefore summing the probabilities, you have assumed that the events are mutually exclusive (they arent).
quote:
If I think LSU is likely to win 8.6 game, then IF I were to calculate the average likelihood of winning a game it would be 71.66%. And for the record, I am NOT calculating that average.
good god man, Why are you taking averages at this point?
This is the equation you used P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
what does P(A or B) mean...do you know?
quote:
First, that is NOT the conclusion of my math.
your conclusion was 8.6 games because you got a probability of 0.86.
by summing a series of probabilities. It's hilariously incorrect.
ETA: Not only did you sum the probabilities, you then left that sum as 8.6
It's insane you think this is accurate.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:13 pm to Salviati
So you;re just going to copy paste and not address the equation at this point?
pathetic.
pathetic.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:17 pm to jonboy
quote:Last year, using this same methodology, LSU was expected to win 8.9 games.quote:Just a suggestion, but go back three seasons using the same methodology & compare the results.
Salviati
I'm not going back further than that.
And comparing results of preseason predictions to actual results is fairly irrelevant. People make preseason predictions every year regardless of their accuracy. It's what fans do at this time of year.
Only atltiger6487 complains about it being a waste of time . . . except that he still does it.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:20 pm to CptBengal
quote:That's great.
This isnt bullshite, this is a RULE of probability...
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
But why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
Come on CptBengal, this is your big opportunity to show me up. I know you have failed every time in the past, but maybe, just maybe, you can prove me wrong this one time. Oh wouldn't that make you so happy!!
You continue to post in this thread, but you continue to fail to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
quote:Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
YOUR ANALYSIS IS WRONG. YOUR CONCLUSIONS EXHIBIT A SEVERE FAILURE TO COMPREHEND THE RULES CONCERNING HOW TO CALCULATE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EVENTS WITH PROBABILITIES. MOREOVER, YOUR FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THE MOST BASIC EQUATION OF PROBABILITY IS HILARIOUSLY PATHETIC.
You continue to post in this thread, but you continue to fail to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
quote:Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
I'm saying you did it incorrectly, and you did do it incorrectly. You then spent 5 pages defending your failure oc comprehension of probability.
We won't even get into the fact that the line isn't a perception of victory, or that your change from line to probability is arbitrary at best and follows a uniform distribution at worst.
BTW: If you do the statistics for the FB team, things are even more hilariously pathetic in those offices than I imagined.
You continue to post in this thread, but you continue to fail to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:26 pm to Salviati
quote:
But why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
Do you think this is clever? I dont need to do a different analysis to show yours is incorrect.
it is incorrect. That's a fact.
quote:
re you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:32 pm to Salviati
quote:
That is why the OP states that LSU has only a 45% chance of winning that game.
The OP shows that Ole Miss is a 4 point favorite over LSU right now.
It's P, meaning no one is favored.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:36 pm to Salviati
quote:
100% . . McNeese St
. 55% . . Mississippi St
. 55% . . Auburn
. 90% . . Syracuse
100% . . Eastern Michigan
. 70% . . South Carolina
. 80% . . Florida
100% . . Western Kentucky
. 30% . . Alabama
. 65% . . Arkansas
. 50% . . Ole Miss
. 70% . . Texas A&M
Here is my analysis based on higher probability of outcomes in those numbers; and I updated Ole Miss to a P, not Ole Miss -4.
McNeese W
MSU W
Auburn W
Syracuse W
EMU W
USCe W
Florida W
WKU W
Alabama L
Arkansas W
Ole Miss W/L
TAMU W
10.5 wins
1.5 losses
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:39 pm to Guava Jelly
quote:
Yes it is. The odds of LSUs success vs McNeese have no bearing on the odds of success vs Bama. That's why his prediction doesn't make sense.
While they're independent events they aren't completely random
If we wen't 0-8 going into the Bama game and Bama was 8-0 the information from the previous 8 games for both teams will give you an indication of how that game might turn out. It's an independent event but it's not based on probabilistic expectation.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:41 pm to Salviati
The over/under is (8.5)....
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:42 pm to Salviati
quote:
Only atltiger6487 complains about it being a waste of time . . . except that he still does it.
no need to drag me into this disaster - the fur is flying enough without me. And after witnessing what you and CptBengal have been doing, I seriously doubt that I'm the only one who thinks this is a waste of time.
Again, I spend about a minute on my prediction.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:47 pm to chilge1
quote:I hear you.
See, this is the part I'm having a problem with. I look at it as you're favored to win 90/10 if you played the same opponent 100 times on the same day... but in reality, you only play them once. And can have only one of two results:
1-0
0-1
Then you move on to the next one... rather than the games building on each other. Again, using my earlier cause for confusion:
Let's look at the extremes where your gut makes sense and work our way to the harder part.
What if LSU played 12 games against teams in which the odds were 99% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win 12 games.
But what if the odds of winning were 51%. What if LSU played 12 games against teams in which the odds were 51% that LSU would win. I hope your gut would say that LSU would probably win 6 games. Sure, LSU is more likely to win each individual game, but there is almost an equal chance that LSU would lose the game.
Now let's take one step away from the easy stuff.
What if LSU played 6 games against teams in which the odds were 99% that LSU would win and then 6 games against teams in which the odds were 51% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win all 6 of the first 6 games, but only 3 of the next 6 game. LSU wins 9 out of 12 games.
That equation can be expressed as
99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% = 900% = 9
What if LSU played 12 games against teams in which the odds were 67% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win 8 games.
What if LSU played 6 games against teams in which the odds were 99% that LSU would win and then 6 games against teams in which the odds were 67% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win all 5 of the first 5 games, but only 4 of the next 5 game. LSU wins 9 out of 12 games.
That equation can be expressed as
99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 67% + 67% + 67% + 67% + 67% + 67% = 996% = 10
So now let's get to your example:
FLA - 80%
SCAR - 70% (Remember, there's a 30% chance LSU loses. You can't ignore it.)
CUSE - 90%
ARKY - 65% (Remember, there's a 35% chance LSU loses. You can't ignore it.)
That equation can be expressed as
80% + 70% + 90% + 65% = 300.5% = 3
quote:I hope my post helped.
You suggest that we'll go 3.05/4.00 = 3-1
My logic dictates that we'll go 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 4-0
Edited to correct math mistake based on 10 games.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:51 pm to Salviati
quote:
That equation can be expressed as
99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% = 800% = 8
WRONG. and why are you using a base 10 when you have 12 numbers in the series? FAIL.
Again,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
No matter how much you dont want to use the equation, or dont think it applies...IT IS A RULE OF PROBABILITY for mutually exclusive events. We know the events are not mutually exclusive.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 2:57 pm to CptBengal
quote:quote:good god man, Why are you taking averages at this point?quote:
When you add those probabilities up (you shouldn't btw) you end up with the probability of LSU winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
Wrong. You're not even close.
And your math is WRONG.
If the average likelihood of winning a game is 86%, t
Because YOU are the moron that said LSU has a probability of winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
quote:There you go again with that Straw Man Fallacy. I know what I did, and I know what I said. I NEVER said anything about 0.86.
your conclusion was 8.6 games because you got a probability of 0.86.
By the way, you do understand that 0.86 - 86% and 8.6 = 860%? You do know that, right?
Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
You continue to post in this thread, but you continue to fail to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 3:03 pm to CptBengal
quote:quote:Do you think this is clever?
But why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
quote:You have not shown mine to be incorrect.
I dont need to do a different analysis to show yours is incorrect.
Math is pretty simple stuff. There's a right way to do things. I showed the right way. You disagree.
Please, show your way of doing things.
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
My statement is NOT a false dichotomy because you have refused to provide YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion; thus we are left with a dichotomy: (1) either you are saying it CANNOT be done, or (2) you are saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it. I acknowledge alternate viewpoints. In fact, I have repeatedly asked you to provide your viewpoint.
Why do you keep failing to show YOUR analysis and YOUR conclusion?!?!
Posted on 8/21/15 at 3:04 pm to Salviati
quote:
Because YOU are the moron that said LSU has a probability of winning ANY INDIVIDUAL game as .86
moron, I got that from the equation I have now given to you more than ten times.
You may not like the equation, but it is a RULE of probability.
quote:
There you go again with that Straw Man Fallacy. I know what I did, and I know what I said. I NEVER said anything about 0.86.
By the way, you do understand that 0.86 - 86% and 8.6 = 860%? You do know that, right?
wow. You literally have no idea what you're doing. Have a great weekend.
quote:
Are you saying it CANNOT be done, or are you saying that you DON'T KNOW how to do it?
Keep repeating this logical fallacy, it makes you seem soooo smart.
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